Israel and Akiva Tor

Potato Latkes with Apple Compote

I attended a talk given by Akiva Tor, Israeli Northwest Consul General, San Francisco Consulate, given November 3, 2010.  It was very interesting to hear Mr. Tor speak regarding the very compelling issues in the Middle East.  Mr Tor was very earnest in seeking to work with the American government to deal with common areas of interest.  Mr Tor spoke regarding the necessity of maintaining Israel's national security and hoped to find a way to ease the emergent problems in the settlements.

Mr Tor is now Director for Special Projects, Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs.  An article in JWeekly.com discusses his term as Northwest Consul General.  Mr Tor has an interesting background and his service has ranged from involvement in the community, to film screening sessions, to museum openings.

What interests me most about Mr Tor's stint as Northwest Consul General, is his involvement in aiding U.S. government interests in divesting in companies which do business with Iran.  As the articles states, lawmakers had already passed a bill mandating that CalPERS and CalSTRS, (State Pension Funds) "divest from companies doing business with Iran. However, compliance and enforcement had been lax".

I find the issue of divestment very interesting and compelling.  I understand well the fiduciary issues that confront plan sponsors. Indeed, fiduciary responsibility in pension funds is a compelling issue to many retirees.

 This issue is very important in pension plans where the Pension Benefit Guaranty Board (PBGC) operates as a U.S. Government Agency.  The Pension Benefit Guaranty Board Annual Report for 2014 depicts its operation.  The PBGC provides coverage for private sector single employer and multi-employer plans.

Washington State's Pension Plans have had issues with KKR and WAMU. according to this article in the Seattle Times. Recently, KKR settled fees with the SEC that has impacted the Washington State pension system, as well as others.

Indeed, it is interesting to note the cascade which erupted from the chain of failures in 2008.

This takes us back to the issue of Mr Tor and divestment.  For the individual investor who wishes to invest in stocks, the issue of what to invest in has particular meaning. Some products may be repugnant to certain investors and those investors may wish to avoid stocks or mutual funds that include them. This is called "social investing".  This is becoming increasingly difficult in today's society when conglomerates operate to market many products, some of which a particular investor might find distasteful.

The issue of divestment as a financial tool is an interesting one in today's society worthy of additional study as the method of divestment is being used by more and more groups, generating more and more difficult problems of attribution.

In an increasingly complex society, many of these issues cross boundaries and become caught up in the intricate issues of global warming and climate change which confront nations across boundaries.

Congressional Budget Office - The Risk Exposure of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation
Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation - Wikipedia
Seattle Times - State's Pension Fund Bets Big on Private Equity
Pension and Investments  - Settlement of Charges with SEC over Fees
State's Pension Plan Bets Big on Private Equity - Seattle Times

Wikipedia:
KKR
Washington Mutual (WAMU)

Our Nuclear Future - Hanford and Spent Nuclear Fuel

Hanford Site, Washington

This nation depends on nuclear energy for a great deal of it's power generation.  Indeed, as we see the Polar Pioneer take off for marginal Chukchi Sea, we note the difficulties faced by our declining resources and the issue of Peak Oil.

How can a world which depends on energy to operate gain power generation resources when there are so many demands, both by developed countries who have already built up a large demand for resources, and by developing nations, in areas such as Africa and Asia, where demands for energy resources will increase with industrialization and commercialization.

I have already discussed some of the issues posed by the Polar Pioneer in my recent blog article. It is clear that there are many risks in oil drilling as we seek to drill at greater and greater depths, in locations where the risk is greater, such as the Chukchi Sea between Alaska and Russia, and engage in practices such as fracking which present their own risks.

My previous blog article, "Energy Choices and Risk", following the Fukushima Disaster on 3/11/2011, discusses some of the emerging risks. Hydroelectric power is a major source of energy which meets much of the energy generation needs in the Pacific Northwest.  Climate change and global warming impact the generation of hydroelectric power and water resources.  Declining glaciers and mountain snow impact climate change and global warming through a positive feedback mechanism as the lower snow pack decreases the albedo through lower reflectivity in the mountain snow pack.

Alternative energy choices are increasingly being considered.  These include biofuels, wind power and solar power.  Can these alternative energy sources meet the bulk of our needs for energy consumption? They can help mitigate the demand for energy but cannot completely fill it. Would filling the planet's surface with wind generators disturb our meteorological balance?  Would over use of solar panels mean that solar energy is diverted into household appliances rather than photosynthesis? To what extent can we generate energy without disturbing other entities within our environment, beyond a de minimus impact?  We do not know the answers to many of these questions.

 I have discussed issues of low probability, high impact risks in conjunction with Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima in my blog article "Energy Choices and Risk".

While large scale accidents see significant press coverage (and they should), those who have studied, researched or worked in the nuclear industry have compelling stories about how exposures have impacted their lives in many ways.  Many others, through occupational exposures not directly related to the nuclear industry may also have been impacted in many ways and to various degrees.

However, occupational exposure is not the whole story; many others, in various walks of life, have been exposed to radiation or other environmental risk in a number of ways.  These individuals may include family members of those having occupational exposure, those living in down wind areas, those transiting through areas with exposure, and those who may be handling product that might have some radiological contamination, and many more. It is clear that those with non-occupational exposures must be cared for just as those with occupational exposures are cared for. The impact of radiation on the populace is an externality issue.

Radiation released into the atmosphere is carried downwind; radiation released into water is carried with the currents.  Radiation released into materials is carried with those materials. Radiation will follow its decay path, which varies with the radionuclide.  One may consider bananas, which are high in potassium, and carry the naturally radioactive element Potassium 40 at low levels.  Every time we carry bananas from the store to our home we carry some (low level) amount of radioactivity with us.  Believe it or not, radiation from bananas is expressed as a "banana equivalent dose", about 0.1 micro-sievert, at least on Wikipedia.

The impact of exposure to radiation is a serious one involving physiological and psychological issues.

Dr Yuri Yablokov's work, "Consequences of the Catastophe for People and the Environment" is an extensive body of work by the Russian Scientist who reported to Mikhail Gorbachev. Dr Yablokov has provided probably the most complete body of work relating to the impact of Chernobyl on people and on the environment.

The Marshall Islands is but one example of an area where nuclear testing has impacted residents. Sixty years later there are still impacts as indicated by this article in The Guardian.

Nevada and New Mexico have a history of atomic testing where test sites and downwind areas have been impacted..  My article on the site of the first atomic test, the initial Trinity nuclear test in New Mexico, discusses these issues.

There are a garden variety of risks along a risk spectrum surrounding the use of nuclear energy.  Risk studies for the Indian Point Reactor at Buchanan, New York, consider a variety of factors: This study takes into account information from the Chernobyl and Fukushima events.

Wikipedia lists some incidents at Indian Point Reactor. To what degree have radiation incidents at Indian Point impacted the surrounding industries and the neighboring communities?  To what extent was a gypsum plant just south of the Indian Point Reactor exposed by incidents at Indian Point?  This is a matter for further investigation.  Gypsum is used in many applications, including in wallboard. Could radioactivity could have traveled from a point of origin in Buchanan, New York, via trucks, trains, vessels or aircraft to residential and commercials interiors: bedroom, kitchen and bathroom walls all over the world?  Can we know the answer to these questions? Certainly we would need to answer these questions in assessing future risks where industrial and other activities are carried about in areas contiguous to nuclear facilities.

According to the Indian Point Report: "Also note that these calculations were performed for a hypothetical accident at only one of Indian Point’s two operating reactors, and the accident scenarios did not involve radiation release from the spent fuel pools, unlike for Fukushima, which was a multi-unit accident with damage to spent nuclear fuel storage. " states one section of the document.

A continuing issue is the handling of spent nuclear fuel.  This is an increasing issue as the amount of spent nuclear fuel, especially that containing plutonium, increases.

A March 18, 2011, article in the Seattle Times discusses the use of MOX plutonium fuel at Hanford.

Nuclear waste may be stored, for example at Tank Farms, for example, at Hanford Tank Farms, or in Dry Cask Storage or at deep geological repositories such as the Carlsbad Waste Isolation Storage Plant in New Mexico.  Yucca Mountain was designated as a deep geological depository for the storage of high level nuclear waste and spent nuclear fuel.

Nuclear waste can be processed in various ways, for example via vitrification at the Vitrification Plant at Hanford and potentially transported elsewhere for long term storage.  The storage and processing of spent nuclear fuel has thus been the subject of extensive debate.  Many of these storage methods involve keeping the isotopes in their original processed state, so that many long lived isotopes are stored in what is an accumulating storage of spent nuclear fuel.

Nuclear fuel can also be processed in a reactor.  This processing allows for isotopes with higher levels of radioactivity, to be processed down their decay chain, reducing the level of radioactivity while producing power, and thus reducing the level of radioactivity in the spent fuel that has to be stored.  This methodology, which is referred to in the March 18, 2011 article in the Seattle Times, has its own risks.  Risks include the risk of nuclear accident while reprocessing the fuel, escape of containment and risks involved in transporting the nuclear spent fuel from the sites at which it is being processed to the sites where it is reprocessed (Hanford Power Plant).

These risks include many of the same issues discussed above regarding the Indian Point plant. There are longer terms risks as well, which involve how to use the potential energy stored in the radionuclide's decay chain; whether it should be used immediately to generate power or whether it should be put back in the ground to be available for later use, or whether there is some planetary need relating to global warming and climate change that should dictate its usage.  That is a matter of continuing discussion.  There is a considerable continuum of risk involved in studying this issue of nuclear waste.

Dr Yablokov's work on Chernobyl illustrates this risk in a very powerful way.  Many areas could potentially be impacted, including the Palouse of Washington, the Seattle Area, and the Washington and Oregon Coasts.

I heard Dr Yablokov speak on "Chernobyl 25 Years Later: Lessons Learned" on March 28, 2011 at the University of Washington, at Kane Hall about his experiences dealing with that nuclear disaster. It was quite an experience.

Nuclear power plants also pose financial risk.  I address this issue in my blog post,
Energy Choices and Risk.  This issue is a matter of continuing investigation as we look towards issues of financial risk management, and the cost of externalities as imposed on society and individuals.


marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com

Hanford 
Palouse
Seattle
Washington Coast
Oregon Coast

Hanford - Use of Plutonium Fuel
Indian Point Energy Plant
Marshall Islands Nuclear Testing Legacy
Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment - Dr Yablokov
Seattle Times - Plutonium Fuel Could be Used at Hanford Power Plant

Wikipedia:
Indian Point Energy Center
Radiation
Hydraulic Fracturing
Banana Equivalent Dose
Carlsbad Waste Isolation Storage Plant
Yucca Mountain Nuclear Waste Depository

marilyndunstan.blogspot.com
Externalities
Chernobyl 25th anniversary 
Energy Choices and Risk
Global Warming and Climate Change-Polar Pioneer
Processing Risk and Uncertainty
Log in the Surf - 8.9 Japan Earthquake (9.0 updated)

Nuclear Regulatory Commission - Dry Cask Storage

Financial Rating Agencies and Risk

Pratt and Whitney J-58 Engine, Lockheed SR-71 Blackbird,

Museum of Flight, Seattle, Washington

How will a recent settlement of a Justice Department suit against Standard & Poor's Rating Agency impact the Rating Agency's assessment of companies that it rates?  With many companies having calendar year financial year ends, this is an emerging question as the various Rating Agencies reviews ratings.

The Justice Department is investigating Moody's Rating Service. The Moody's and Standard and Poor's suits are related to fraud in mortgage backed securities.  Mortgage backed securities experience contributed significantly to the financial crisis of 2008.  The U.S. Justice Department worked with State Agencies in filing the suits.

A recent example of the impact of credit ratings is shown by Standard & Poor's affirmation of General Electric's Credit Rating at AA+ in the wake of its earlier announcement to exit its GE Capital Finance arm and divest itself of real estate assets, as reported in Marketwatch.

Meanwhile, Moody's Investor Service downgraded GE on that decision, concerned about favoring equity investors over creditors. GE Capital has a history of aviation financing, as well as an interest in the future of aviation, as in supersonic flight.

It is interesting to note the responses of the two Rating Agencies in this particular case, in the light of Justice Department investigations and emerging circumstances in the financial markets.  What does the future hold in store?

In addition to the financial circumstances surrounding GE, and in particular, GE Capital, it is interesting to consider that jet engines might serve as a useful metaphor for emerging issues in the financial sector, and for Rating Agencies in particular.

A number of years have passed since the financial crisis of 2008.  In a previous blog article on August 22, 2011, I discussed the downgrade of  United States Long Term Sovereign Credit from AAA to AA+.  In this article I discuss some of the issues involving Rating Agency and other capital models.

Capital models are complex analytic models designed to measure the soundness of institutions.   The U.S. Justice Department has been evaluating a number of rating agencies to assess their impact on the financial markets and their adequacy in measuring company risk.

Generally, capital models look at total capital available and compare it a risk based capital measurement.  The risk based capital measurement is a formula based on the risks a company assumes in its various lines of business, assigning weighting capital factors to measure important items such as asset risk, insurance risk, asset liability/matching risk, business risk and other factors.  These types of measurements vary considerably between different types of business.  Depending on the use of the capital model, the structure of the model and the types of metrics used, the factors, and the analysis will differ considerably from institution to institution.

Rating Agencies serve to provide information to investors that help them decide whether to invest in a company.  Thus the analysis of a rating agency focuses on issues of financial soundness, potential for growth, and a wide variety of issues that are of interest to potential investors, in both debt and equity securities.  Rating Agencies include such agencies as Standard & Poor's, Moody's, A.M. Best and Fitch.

Rating Agencies perform valuations of companies. Rating Agencies will provide a rating for a company based on data readily available through public sources.   However, in order to have a comprehensive financial evaluation, Rating Agencies typically require a fee to be paid which will enable the company under valuation to interact with the Rating Agency, allowing it greater access to information obtained by the Rating Agency and more sharing of information.

Rating Agency models will differ from models used by regulators to assess financial soundness.  For example, state insurance commissioners who regulate financial soundness of insurance companies will also model risk based capital.  Their analysis,  however, is focused more on solvency issues than indicators of growth to potential future investors. This is because state guarantee funds, which insurers pay into, are regulated by the states. State guarantee funds provide some funds according to regulation to certain classes of policyholders in the event of insolvency. The downside risks and upside benefits are different for regulators versus the various classes of investors interested in a company.

Because the focus of capital models vary widely according to the use for which they are intended, they tend to produce different types of results.  Regulatory models might be established through cooperation between certain government or quasi-government-private bodies that seek to promote some degree of uniformity (.e.g. the National Association of Insurance Commissioners - NAIC).

Private Rating Agency models by such major players in the system such as Standard & Poor's, Moody's, A.M. Best and Fitch will vary because each of these rating agencies are seeking to gain business by rating companies and each has developed its own model. This is called competition. Thus when a company is evaluated by rating agencies, their rating may vary between different rating agencies.  This is because different rating agencies will weight various activities differently than others.

Rating agencies have a considerable amount of power to impact the way in which a company is viewed in the marketplace.  The specific metrics and factors used by a rating agency to judge a company may impact whether a company gains or loses business and may influence a company's decisions.  An action by a rating agency to downgrade a company may result in the company losing a considerable amount of business, and even cascade that company to failure.

There is a certain psychology at work in companies dealing with rating agencies.  Because companies have an opportunity to gain a more favorable rating by interacting with a rating company if they pay a fee to have a more comprehensive analysis, the two entities are now bound by some sort of cooperative relationship (symbiosis) whereby it is in the interest of the rating agency to keep getting the fee.  The rating agency, however,to ensure its credibility, needs to report adverse conditions that may lead to failure of the rated company at some point.  Thus the rating agency is on the horns of a dilemma, whereby it must at some point act to ensure the credibility of its ratings.

However Rating Agency models are just that, models, and models may not take into account all the protective factors that companies use to ensure continued operation.  Rating Agency models reflect the biases of those who engineered them and may reflect psychological factors such as confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance.

The ability of a Rating Agency to cascade a company downhill towards failure,  into the hands of investors ready to swoop it up at bargain prices, may hinge on the use of specific metrics and factors which are keyed towards certain predetermined models or results.

A Rating Agency model, like the companies it rates, are very complex models.  Perhaps a jet engine is a suitable metaphor, in terms of complexity, in considering how such models operate in an ever complex world where problems such as climate change and global warming loom ever larger. My recent blog articles on the Polar Pioneer and Seattle-Tacoma International Airport discuss some of these issues which may impact aviation.

A jet engine such as the Pratt and Whitney J-58 engine, operating in conjunction with the titanium-skinned aircraft itself, a SR-71 Blackbird, needs to be able to operate in a range of atmospheric conditions reflecting different atmospheric pressures, levels of oxygen and carbon dioxide, and under various heat constraints and mechanical stresses.  The pilot's own physiological and psychological stressors are of paramount importance in such an environment, which includes exposure to a variety of environmental hazards, in various feedback modes.

It is in this context that we consider Rating Agency models not simply as a static model based on year end performance or occasional interaction with companies they rate but also a dynamic model that must take into account many complex factors and interactions in an environment where physiological and psychological stress tests, as experienced by test pilots, operating in a real environment may be the most dangerous elements, especially when so many unknown factors must be taken into account.

Many companies perform complex modeling analyses to stress test their operations under a range of potential situations.  The question is how Rating Agency models reflect the balance of risks and who, in this complex society is actually directing the emergence of results.

These are all very significant issues as we live in an interconnected society, perched on a bifurcation point of climate change and global warming, that has impacts on many sectors of the society, and, in fact the planet.  Externalities and systemic risk are major factors in our ever changing society as we address issues that go beyond individuals, corporations and governments.

Fuel and energy sources are important factors in a global economy, issues that affect many on a personal scale, in many ways that many not suspect, due to their ever increasing complexity. Rating Agencies, and their impact on society are but one of a number of factors influencing the outcomes of these very important issues as we tackle these significant problems.

Senescence

Gingko Biloba Tree

Senescence is the process of growing old, or aging.  Senescence can refer to a process that occurs on many different levels, from cellular levels, to the whole body level, to higher organizational levels and including physical and psychological structures.

Aging occurs at different rates and different times in different life forms.  Senescence is directly or indirectly a major cause of death.  Senescence may reflect underlying biological processes, mediated by gene expression, can reflect programmed cell death and can be accelerated by environmental factors, such as exposure to radiation.

My 2014 blog article discusses senescence in  the Gingko Biloba Tree, a living fossil dating back to the Permian era (270 million years ago), which exhibits clonal reproduction.  Natural leaf senescence in the Gingko Biloba has been researched in male and female trees, with regards to impacts of reactive species and anti-oxidants on the rates of senescence.

Senescene on a cellular level, expressed as replicative senescence, reflects a cell's attainment of the Hayflick limit.  The Hayflick limit refers to a limit on the shortening of DNA telomeres,  which cap the ends of the DNA strands.  As the cell divides, it loses telomeres in the division process.  The Hayflick limit reflects the end of the telomere line, at which point the cell becomes senescent.  Senescence is accelerated by exposure to reactive oxygen species,  exposure to oncogenes, and to cell to cell fusion, a process where cells join to form what is callled a 'syncytium'.  I discuss a number of the processes that may encourage the early development of senescence in other blog articles, listed below.

Exposure to radiation generates reactive species.  This can include anything from high energy ionizing radiation which liberates electrons from atoms and molecules, to non-ionizing radiation.   Ionizing radiation may include cosmic and gamma rays and some ultraviolet wavelengths.  Geomagnetic storms may result in increased exposure to high energy particles, as would exposure to nuclear radiation.

Non-ionizing radiation includes radar microwaves and those used by cell phones, which can disturb lymphocytes  in rats. Some ultraviolet wavelengths including UVA, UVB and UVC are non-ionizing. Disturbances in the Ozone layer result in increased ultraviolet exposure, with the Antarctic having historically greater ozone depletion than the Arctic. 

 Reactive species can be produced through natural bodily process, in Oxidative Phosphorylation (OXPHOS), in the production of Adenosine Triphosphate (ATP) through mitochondrial processes.  The Metabolic Theory of ecology deals with these issues. It reflects Kleiber's Law which relates metabolism to body weight .  I discuss these issues in my blog on "The Odd Couple - The Mitochondria and the Cell Nucleus", where cellular processes are both exposed to and create oxygen radicals.  This article also discusses other sources of reactive species, including pollutants, chemicals and toxins.

Exposure to oncogenes can also lead to senescense.  Oncogenes can arise from a variety of sources, including potentially avian sources which operate within our body's innate and adaptive immune system transcription factors.

Induction of cell-cell fusion, as occurs in syncytium, can also lead to senescence.  Syncytium can form in protists such as rhizarians, in fungi, in heart muscle and skeletal muscle, and, importantly, in the placenta where they take on a meaning relating to group immunity systems, as discussed in my blog article.  The heart is a critical organ in the human body and tests such as the Cardiac MRI Adenosine Stress Test (using a gadolinium contrast agent) tests the ability of the heart to act "in sync".

 Adenosine is an important nucleoside which modulates a variety of important physiological processes, including heart activity, and as an important moderator of the sleep-wakefulness cycle. Caffeine is an antagonist of adenosine receptors in the brain.  The action of Adenosine is also impacted by theophylline (found in tea) and theobromine (found in chocolate). Adenosine is an inhibitor of the central nervous system and relaxes the heart muscle.  Adenosine also increases hair thickness.  The modulation of adenosine may be related to senescence.

Organismal senescence is a decline in the ability of the organism to respond to stress, and an increase in various symptoms characteristic of aging, including a decline in homeostasis, the ability of the body to respond to various cues.  Alzheimer's Disease is one condition which may be associated with senescence, and may relate to various environmental factors as discussed in my blog article.

Senescence can be mitigated through increased exposure to anti-oxidants, which can be obtained through certain foods (e.g. blueberries are a food high in anti-oxidants),  and internally through transcription factors such as superoxide dismutase.

Senescence may be impacted by a variety of processes germane to environmental issues relating to climate change and global warming, including natural processes and anthropogenic forcing (originating in human activity).  These processes may all impact factors germane to reactive oxygen species and anti-oxidants.

Bacillus Anthracis Issues

The CDC is investigating an unintentional release of anthrax  from the Department of Defense (DOD) to multiple labs in multiple states.  An article from Voice of America indicates 24 labs in 11 states and 2 countries (South Korea and Australia) have received "suspect samples" of concern.

Anthrax has quite a history, both in its naturally occuring state and as a biological weapon, as documented by the Center for Disease Control (CDC).  There have been a number of anthrax "releases" over time,  Recently, in 2014 there was a release at CDC's Roybal Campus .  The year 2001 saw a wave of anthrax attacks.  A CDC review discusses the 2001 attacks in some detail as well as discussing epidemiological findings. and provides a history of anthrax., both in a naturally occurring state and as a biological weapon.

One interesting development has been the appearance of bacillus anthracis in heroin used by European drug users.  The strain involved originated in Turkey, raising a question as to how bacillus anthracis would get into the heroin supply.

The CDC provides basic information on Bacillus Anthracis.  The bacteria Bacillus Anthracis exists in a dormant, sporulated state in nature, can enter the body by a variety of routes (e.g. cutaneous or inhalation pathways), become activated, spread throughout the body, multiply and produce toxins.

These incidents all represent an interesting pattern in the release of bacillus anthracis into the biosphere, taking into consideration emerging environmental issues regarding climate change.  The question is to what extent the environment adapts or reacts to environmental challenges thrown its way.

As this CDC case investigation indicates, it is difficult to investigate individual cases of anthrax when they occur.  Human cases of anthrax are rare, despite the fact that Bacillus Anthracis can be found naturally in the soil and commonly infects domestic and wild animals throughout the world.  There may be a number of reasons for this apparent paradox, which is under investigation.

My blog article "Panspermia and Evolution" discusses Bacillus Anthracis and the distribution of life in the context of extreme environments.  These are the types of situations involving low probability, high impact events.

Bacillus Anthracis is mentioned in a few of my blog articles, "Evolution of Adaptive Immunity" and in an article on "Ebola".

Bacillus Anthracis needs oxygen in order to sporulate.. This is a very interesting characteristic that may provide clues to it's activity, especially in the human body. Iron is a key element in the human body, intimately associated with a number of metabolic processes, including its role in hemoglobin and the delivery of oxygen throughout the body.

Indeed, Bacillus Anthracis uptakes iron when exposed to superoxide stress.   Bacillus anthracis experiences rapid sporulation in a high iron, glucose free environment.  Apparently, Bacillus Anthracis may operate as a signaling mechanism triggering iron accumulation when exposed to environmental stresses, impacting the iron catalyst of the  Fenton reaction.

Transferrin blocks growth of Bacillus Anthracis via iron deprivation, an effect that is differentially expressed in cutaneous anthrax vs inhalational anthrax. This difference, in the latter case, is due to phagocytosis by macrophages, a process which occurs upon inhalation, allowing the inhaled spores to germinate intracellularly, multiply and cause infection.

It is apparent that Bacillus Anthracis forms the heart of a mystery, a challenge, as we seek to better understand the manner in which it expresses, affecting a number of medical processes in the human body. At the same time, we examine other issues impacting society on a global level, issues of climate change, global warming and their interactions with the changing environment in which we live.  These issues will be discussed in further blog articles.

Center for Disease Control (CDC):
  CDC Investigating unintentional DoD shipment of anthrax
  Anthrax
  A History of Anthrax
  CDC Director Releases After-Action Report on Recent Anthrax Incident
  CDC Responds to Anthrax - 2001
  Review of Fall 2001 Anthrax Bioattacks
  Injectional Anthrax in Heroin Users - 2000 -2012
  Anthrax - Basics
  Investigation of Inhalational Anthrax Case - United States

Voice of America -"Carter Vows to Find Those Responsible for Anthrax Shipment"

American Veterinary Medical Association (AVMA) - Anthrax FAQ

marilyndunstan.blogspot.com
   Panspermia and Evolution
   Evolution of Adaptive Immunity
   Ebola

Medical Microbiology - Bacillus
Journal of Bacteriology - Cellular Iron Distribution in Bacillus Anthracis
Journal of Microbiological Methods - Rapid Sporulation of Bacillus Anthracis in a high iron-glucose free media
Journal Biological Chemistry - Human Transferrin Confers Serum Resistance Against Bacillus anthracis

IUPAC - Gold Book - Fenton Reaction

Wikipedia:
  Oxidative Stress
  Phagocytosis
  Macrophage

Global Warming and Climate Change - "Polar Pioneer" and Arctic Drilling

Royal Dutch Shell's Polar Pioneer, Port of Seattle, Terminal 5, Seattle, WA

The visit of the Royal Dutch Shell's Polar Pioneer Oil Drilling Rig to the Port of Seattle's Terminal 5 in May, 2015 sparked demonstrations against drilling for petroleum products in Alaska's Chukchi Sea, and helped to focus attention on environmental issues, the use of energy resources, externalities and systemic risk.

Energy resources include petroleum products, nuclear energy and alternative energy sources such as solar, wind power, biodiesel, ethanol, hydro and other emerging energy sources.  The Polar Pioneer and other Arctic drilling operations are concerned with the development of petroleum resources as the planet deals with exploration for additional sources of petroleum.

Alaska's Chukchi Sea,  high in the Arctic, above the Alaska Archipelago, is a marginal sea that sits between Russia and Alaska and is navigable only four months out of the year.

There are many risks involved in drilling in the Arctic.  Past oil spills, such as the Exxon Valdez oil spill in March, 1989  highlight the risks involved with drilling in such a hostile environment where repairs, mitigation and cleanup are much more difficult.  Storms, ice, extremes of light and darkness and other climatological issues present challenges.  The opening up of Arctic areas for shipping also presents a long term challenge in a number of ways; this risk includes not simply the risk posed by the oil drilling activities themselves but ancillary activities that support these activities as well as other commercial activities.

There is the risk that sea lanes could interrupt the ability of sea ice to reform.  Sea ice, with a high albedo (reflectivity index between 0 and 1) , helps to counteract planetary warming. As anyone who has tried to bake an egg on a hot black asphalt knows, black surfaces absorb heat and white surfaces reflect it, and a decrease in sea ice is associated with positive feedback mechanisms that increase global warming.  Preserving the Arctic ice in the face of increased commercial traffic is a very important element in ensuring planetary balance.

Is it possible that the planet is finding its own way towards an equilibrium, as we sit and ponder our options?

In 2012 a phytoplankton bloom was discovered floating in the Chukchi Sea between Wainwright and Barrow, Alaska.

Set in the context of climate change, involving long term planetary forcing mechanisms such as the Milankovitch Cycle  and global warming, population growth, globalization, and development of emerging economies, the use of energy resources is an important topic.

Could this bloom be a mechanism for mitigating the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide?   Phytoplankton account for "half of photosynthetic activity on Earth", according to NOAA.  The presence of extensive blooms of the fern Azolla in the Arctic Ocean are associated with the emergence of an ice age in the middle Eocene epoch (Azolla Event) 49 million years ago, which transformed the Earth from a "greenhouse" to an "icehouse".   Blooms have varying ability to sequester carbon dioxide, as indicated by the Azolla foundation.

The appearance of algal blooms in the Chukchi Sea may be an early indicator of planetary compensatory mechanisms to deal with the increase in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (including methane and water vapor ) in the atmosphere, and rising temperatures.

The issue of drilling in the Arctic's Chukchi Sea is thus an important issue that doesn't simply entail the issues of how to drill in such a hostile environment without disturbing it, but also is set in the context of a bifurcation point with regards to issues of planetary balance.


Past articles from my blog on environmental issues and the issues of externalities incude:

Externalities and Risk - The Seattle-Tacoma International Airport
Climate Change and Carbon
Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Environmental Issues (one of a series on the airport)
Climate Change and the Thermohaline Circulation

Marilyn Dunstan Photography

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Medical Issues

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, Third Runway,Sea Tac, Washington

Examination of the impact of the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on the region poses a number of analytic challenges.  In a previous blog article, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Pollution, I discussed pollution issues.  Links to my other blog issues on the airport may be found listed below.

The focus of this blog article is on health related issues which may be related to airport operations, keeping in mind that there are other sources of pollution that may contribute to health conditions, and that there are factors other than environmental conditions which may contribute to health conditions.

Other sources of pollution may include vehicular traffic, such as cars, trucks, vans, buses and rail systems, as well as industry and commerce as well as other human activity such as wood burning. Many factors, in addition to pollutants, contribute to health.  Economic and sociological factors such as poverty, education and disenfranchisement all are factors which influence health.

There is considerable information available from the King County Health Department on the geographical distribution of various medical conditions.  These are listed below. Incidences of cancer, respiratory disease, cardiac and pulmonary heart conditions vary throughout the county.

MEDICAL ISSUES

Known

• A number of medical conditions may be impacted by environmental factors, including cancer, respiratory/pulmonary,sleep disorders,  blood/vascular disorders, immune system disorders, cardiac disorders and neurological/psychiatric/psychological issues that can emerge as a result of increased environmental exposure. The impact of air pollution on the generation of reactive species such as oxygen and other radicals may also adversely impact sleep states.
• Environmental pollutants often increase generation of reactive species or oxygen radicals, increasing oxidative stress, impacting a number of medical conditions, and may create new ones.
• Electromagnetic fields (microwaves) - Potential effects vary according to the distance from the source with general public exposure lessened.  Health effects studied include cancer, physiological and thermoregulatory responses, reproductive issues, cataracts, and impacts on calcium ion mobility.  Effects have not been sufficiently established to be able to determine regulatory standards.
• Studies have been made by the Washington State Department of Health on glioblastoma multiforme and other conditions.
• A February 25, 1999 report from the State Health Department and King County Health Department indicates: "While the state health department found that the occurrence of all SeaTac Concerned Citizen cancers in the area within 5 miles of the airport was less than expected in comparison to King County, the Seattle-King County health assessment found an increase in cancer deaths around SeaTac Airport."  This study examines health issues in the neighboring communities around the airport.
• There are extensive studies from the King County Department of Public Health available regarding a variety of health and socioeconomic factors for the communities in King County. These reports indicate increased incidence of cancer and pulmonary disease, but decreased risk of heart attack, stroke and Alzheimers relative to other areas.  There is also a higher degree of cigarette smoking in the region, complicating analysis.  There is a range of socioeconomic indicators showing lower socioeconomic indicators in the region.

Past Legacy

• One of the cardinal features of evolution is the incorporation of biologicals and minerals into a system in order to advance features that have evolutionary advantage.  This is called biomineralization.  It is not inconceivable that out of the many molecules emitted through airport operations (and other sources throughout the region), that one in the witches brew of combinations might find a home within the human body, evolving the system, or throwing a monkey wrench into it. Calcite enabled the creation of the eye in trilobytes  in the pre-Cambrian.  However a serious problem in this process is the issue of interoperability between systems in such processes.
• To what extent does the ground on which we sit impact health?  The area holds the legacy of the ASARCO Tacoma Smelter Plume  formed in 1899, and the emissions since that period.  This legacy impacts rock, soil, water and air.  The Seattle-Tacoma International airport sits on a considerable amount of fill, which is in addition any deposition that may have fell on the underlying soil.  Other parts of the region may also have been impacted by sand, rock and gravel transported from sites more heavily impacted by the ASARCO Smelter's operations.
• The airport sits on Fraser Glaciation,  Vashon Stade.  To what extent do the rocks around the airport and the water affect health? It is possible that the area of the airport could hold some clue to past evolution.  A sloth was discovered in a swampy area north of the airport in 1961, and a mammoth tusk was discovered in the South Lake Union area of Seattle. Both sit at the Burke Museum.  DNA analysis from an archaeological find could perhaps provide scientists with clues to help solve emerging problems germane to our evolution and our ancestors.

Emerging or Unknown

• The emergence of new and novel health risks may occur in the witch's brew of chemical soup surrounding the airport and other areas subject to environmental risk. Illnesses that normally occur in other areas of the world may emerge in this arena, given the geological milieu in which the airport sits, the meteorological conditions, and the increased levels of pollutants, including carbon dioxide.  Carbon dioxide is a sensitive indicator of global warming and climate change and may also impact the respiratory system in a similar fashion in the immediate neighborhood of the airport.
• Seasonal flu and emerging viruses, could recombine in the environment surrounding the airport, mixing human and bird migration patterns with environmental factors impacting local populations.  Thus viruses could serve as a vector for the incorporation of novel or emerging features resulting from the witches brew of chemicals.
• Chemicals emitted in the witches brew of chemical emitted from airport operations could be impacted by solar radiation, a source of energy, especially during periods of geomagnetic storms.  Potentially subatomic collisions could evoke a transitional state in molecules, and be incorporated into the body.  Any impact from the creation of transitional molecules would be in addition to any direct effect from any solar storms.
• The witches brew of chemicals emitted by air transport, given the power, acceleration, deceleration and forces put on aircraft engines, abrasion, means that more exotic chemicals may be created.  However, it is possible that similar types of reactions may also be occurring in different parts of the region, perhaps to a different extent.

Establishing Correlations between Pollutants and Medical Conditions

• While some pollutants in particular are points of focus, the extensive lists provided make it difficult to correlate exposures to any one or any combination of health outcomes.  This is an issue of multiple correlation analysis in the face of numerous variables and outcomes, many of which may interact with each other to alter individual correlation between any two variables. 
• Analysis of risk focuses on cancer metrics.  While the emergence of the cancer risk is important (and critical), identification of other outcomes is also important. Early indicators of future outcomes may serve as helpful markers of environmental distress before its impact becomes too severe.
• Environmental markers might include blood coagulation measurements, markers for the impact of oxidative stress, markes for nuclear DNA and mtDNA damage, and markers for the preference of glycolysis in cells (Warburg Hypothesis), among other things.
• Categorization of medical systems, or medical coding, puts medical conditions in "boxes" which may make analysis difficult when causes and/or outcomes cross boundaries, medical conditions are inappropriately categorized or new information informs medicine.
• The division of conditions into physiological versus psychological causes presents such difficulties, especially when these conditions are subject to such a wide disparity of treatment throughout the existing sociological framework. The bifurcation of conditions into physiological versus behavioral outcomes tends to create categories that diminish or ignore the health and sociological impact of pollution exposure and/or cross category lines.
• Some indices that represent psychological stress may combine various psychological indicators in a weighting formula that may impede the ability to do correlation analysis on any one factor. One is left with memories of Upton Sinclair's "The Jungle", a book about meat packing plants, wondering how the whole was constructed from the parts.   Thus, the question remains in indices and tests as to whether the manner in which the indices are constructed drive a certain result or whether indices keep pace with changes in their individual components.
• Occupational and environmental health outcomes are not appropriately measured in a manner that can express the full continuum of types of work that exists in the sociological sphere.  This reflects the existing dysfunctional definitions of work and disability, and impacts correlation analysis between occupational and environmental health.
• Medical fields studying intersecting fields of study, such as neurology, psychiatry and psychology can come into conflict at times, making it more difficult to study health outcomes emerging from environmental factors. 
• Definitions based on subjective issues such as behavior and, belief systems, emerge to complicate the analysis of the impacts of environmental pollutants.
• The drive to cut medical costs conflicts with testing the impacts of increased environmental load on the public, leaving the impacts uncertain and placing the burden on those impacted. 
• Increased population and economic activity has impacted Western Washington so that environmental risk exists in many places throughout the region, to varying degree.
• The medical system currently does not provide sufficient support to provide both testing and treatment of medical conditions which may arise from the increased exposure to environmental pathogens. There are barriers to entry into the medical system which impede the ability to measure outcomes and protect human test subjects in the evolutionary process.
• Assessment of different contributors to morbidity and mortality may confound research into the underlying environmental issues.  An example of this is assessing the contribution of smoking to morbidity and mortality versus the environmental effects caused by airport operations.
• Different statistical measures may be used by reports, confusing the reader or making it difficult to interpret data shown in different forms;  Data may be presented with an incidence rate (occurrence of a condition in a population over a period of time), a prevalence rate (percentage of a population having a condition at a specific period of time) or mortality rate (percentage of deaths in a population over a period of time).  The US Government publishes data on morbidity and mortality .

The challenge is to put together to what extent the environmental factors drive the medical and  socioeconomic factors and are in turn influenced by them, in a positive feedback loop.

Sources:
Puget Sound Clean Air Agency - Final Report - Puget Sound Air Toxics Evaluation - October 2003
Department of Ecology - Toxic Cleanup Program (ASARCO Smelter Plume)
World Health Organization - Electromagnetic Fields
Port of Seattle - Part 150 Study
Port of Seattle - Groundwater Monitoring
Port of Seattle - Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan
Scandanavian Journal of Health - Glioblastoma Multiforme
Tacoma Smelter Plume Information - Washington Department of Ecology
King County Community Health Indicators - King County (Top 10 Leading Causes of Death)
King County Public Health -School District Health Profiles
King County Health Profile
King County Public Health - Data and Reports

Blog Articles:
Externalities and Risk - The Seattle-Tacoma International Airport
Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Environmental Issues
Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Pollution