Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Medical Issues

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, Third Runway,Sea Tac, Washington

Examination of the impact of the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on the region poses a number of analytic challenges.  In a previous blog article, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Pollution, I discussed pollution issues.  Links to my other blog issues on the airport may be found listed below.

The focus of this blog article is on health related issues which may be related to airport operations, keeping in mind that there are other sources of pollution that may contribute to health conditions, and that there are factors other than environmental conditions which may contribute to health conditions.

Other sources of pollution may include vehicular traffic, such as cars, trucks, vans, buses and rail systems, as well as industry and commerce as well as other human activity such as wood burning. Many factors, in addition to pollutants, contribute to health.  Economic and sociological factors such as poverty, education and disenfranchisement all are factors which influence health.

There is considerable information available from the King County Health Department on the geographical distribution of various medical conditions.  These are listed below. Incidences of cancer, respiratory disease, cardiac and pulmonary heart conditions vary throughout the county.

MEDICAL ISSUES

Known

• A number of medical conditions may be impacted by environmental factors, including cancer, respiratory/pulmonary,sleep disorders,  blood/vascular disorders, immune system disorders, cardiac disorders and neurological/psychiatric/psychological issues that can emerge as a result of increased environmental exposure. The impact of air pollution on the generation of reactive species such as oxygen and other radicals may also adversely impact sleep states.
• Environmental pollutants often increase generation of reactive species or oxygen radicals, increasing oxidative stress, impacting a number of medical conditions, and may create new ones.
• Electromagnetic fields (microwaves) - Potential effects vary according to the distance from the source with general public exposure lessened.  Health effects studied include cancer, physiological and thermoregulatory responses, reproductive issues, cataracts, and impacts on calcium ion mobility.  Effects have not been sufficiently established to be able to determine regulatory standards.
• Studies have been made by the Washington State Department of Health on glioblastoma multiforme and other conditions.
• A February 25, 1999 report from the State Health Department and King County Health Department indicates: "While the state health department found that the occurrence of all SeaTac Concerned Citizen cancers in the area within 5 miles of the airport was less than expected in comparison to King County, the Seattle-King County health assessment found an increase in cancer deaths around SeaTac Airport."  This study examines health issues in the neighboring communities around the airport.
• There are extensive studies from the King County Department of Public Health available regarding a variety of health and socioeconomic factors for the communities in King County. These reports indicate increased incidence of cancer and pulmonary disease, but decreased risk of heart attack, stroke and Alzheimers relative to other areas.  There is also a higher degree of cigarette smoking in the region, complicating analysis.  There is a range of socioeconomic indicators showing lower socioeconomic indicators in the region.

Past Legacy

• One of the cardinal features of evolution is the incorporation of biologicals and minerals into a system in order to advance features that have evolutionary advantage.  This is called biomineralization.  It is not inconceivable that out of the many molecules emitted through airport operations (and other sources throughout the region), that one in the witches brew of combinations might find a home within the human body, evolving the system, or throwing a monkey wrench into it. Calcite enabled the creation of the eye in trilobytes  in the pre-Cambrian.  However a serious problem in this process is the issue of interoperability between systems in such processes.
• To what extent does the ground on which we sit impact health?  The area holds the legacy of the ASARCO Tacoma Smelter Plume  formed in 1899, and the emissions since that period.  This legacy impacts rock, soil, water and air.  The Seattle-Tacoma International airport sits on a considerable amount of fill, which is in addition any deposition that may have fell on the underlying soil.  Other parts of the region may also have been impacted by sand, rock and gravel transported from sites more heavily impacted by the ASARCO Smelter's operations.
• The airport sits on Fraser Glaciation,  Vashon Stade.  To what extent do the rocks around the airport and the water affect health? It is possible that the area of the airport could hold some clue to past evolution.  A sloth was discovered in a swampy area north of the airport in 1961, and a mammoth tusk was discovered in the South Lake Union area of Seattle. Both sit at the Burke Museum.  DNA analysis from an archaeological find could perhaps provide scientists with clues to help solve emerging problems germane to our evolution and our ancestors.

Emerging or Unknown

• The emergence of new and novel health risks may occur in the witch's brew of chemical soup surrounding the airport and other areas subject to environmental risk. Illnesses that normally occur in other areas of the world may emerge in this arena, given the geological milieu in which the airport sits, the meteorological conditions, and the increased levels of pollutants, including carbon dioxide.  Carbon dioxide is a sensitive indicator of global warming and climate change and may also impact the respiratory system in a similar fashion in the immediate neighborhood of the airport.
• Seasonal flu and emerging viruses, could recombine in the environment surrounding the airport, mixing human and bird migration patterns with environmental factors impacting local populations.  Thus viruses could serve as a vector for the incorporation of novel or emerging features resulting from the witches brew of chemicals.
• Chemicals emitted in the witches brew of chemical emitted from airport operations could be impacted by solar radiation, a source of energy, especially during periods of geomagnetic storms.  Potentially subatomic collisions could evoke a transitional state in molecules, and be incorporated into the body.  Any impact from the creation of transitional molecules would be in addition to any direct effect from any solar storms.
• The witches brew of chemicals emitted by air transport, given the power, acceleration, deceleration and forces put on aircraft engines, abrasion, means that more exotic chemicals may be created.  However, it is possible that similar types of reactions may also be occurring in different parts of the region, perhaps to a different extent.

Establishing Correlations between Pollutants and Medical Conditions

• While some pollutants in particular are points of focus, the extensive lists provided make it difficult to correlate exposures to any one or any combination of health outcomes.  This is an issue of multiple correlation analysis in the face of numerous variables and outcomes, many of which may interact with each other to alter individual correlation between any two variables. 
• Analysis of risk focuses on cancer metrics.  While the emergence of the cancer risk is important (and critical), identification of other outcomes is also important. Early indicators of future outcomes may serve as helpful markers of environmental distress before its impact becomes too severe.
• Environmental markers might include blood coagulation measurements, markers for the impact of oxidative stress, markes for nuclear DNA and mtDNA damage, and markers for the preference of glycolysis in cells (Warburg Hypothesis), among other things.
• Categorization of medical systems, or medical coding, puts medical conditions in "boxes" which may make analysis difficult when causes and/or outcomes cross boundaries, medical conditions are inappropriately categorized or new information informs medicine.
• The division of conditions into physiological versus psychological causes presents such difficulties, especially when these conditions are subject to such a wide disparity of treatment throughout the existing sociological framework. The bifurcation of conditions into physiological versus behavioral outcomes tends to create categories that diminish or ignore the health and sociological impact of pollution exposure and/or cross category lines.
• Some indices that represent psychological stress may combine various psychological indicators in a weighting formula that may impede the ability to do correlation analysis on any one factor. One is left with memories of Upton Sinclair's "The Jungle", a book about meat packing plants, wondering how the whole was constructed from the parts.   Thus, the question remains in indices and tests as to whether the manner in which the indices are constructed drive a certain result or whether indices keep pace with changes in their individual components.
• Occupational and environmental health outcomes are not appropriately measured in a manner that can express the full continuum of types of work that exists in the sociological sphere.  This reflects the existing dysfunctional definitions of work and disability, and impacts correlation analysis between occupational and environmental health.
• Medical fields studying intersecting fields of study, such as neurology, psychiatry and psychology can come into conflict at times, making it more difficult to study health outcomes emerging from environmental factors. 
• Definitions based on subjective issues such as behavior and, belief systems, emerge to complicate the analysis of the impacts of environmental pollutants.
• The drive to cut medical costs conflicts with testing the impacts of increased environmental load on the public, leaving the impacts uncertain and placing the burden on those impacted. 
• Increased population and economic activity has impacted Western Washington so that environmental risk exists in many places throughout the region, to varying degree.
• The medical system currently does not provide sufficient support to provide both testing and treatment of medical conditions which may arise from the increased exposure to environmental pathogens. There are barriers to entry into the medical system which impede the ability to measure outcomes and protect human test subjects in the evolutionary process.
• Assessment of different contributors to morbidity and mortality may confound research into the underlying environmental issues.  An example of this is assessing the contribution of smoking to morbidity and mortality versus the environmental effects caused by airport operations.
• Different statistical measures may be used by reports, confusing the reader or making it difficult to interpret data shown in different forms;  Data may be presented with an incidence rate (occurrence of a condition in a population over a period of time), a prevalence rate (percentage of a population having a condition at a specific period of time) or mortality rate (percentage of deaths in a population over a period of time).  The US Government publishes data on morbidity and mortality .

The challenge is to put together to what extent the environmental factors drive the medical and  socioeconomic factors and are in turn influenced by them, in a positive feedback loop.

Sources:
Puget Sound Clean Air Agency - Final Report - Puget Sound Air Toxics Evaluation - October 2003
Department of Ecology - Toxic Cleanup Program (ASARCO Smelter Plume)
World Health Organization - Electromagnetic Fields
Port of Seattle - Part 150 Study
Port of Seattle - Groundwater Monitoring
Port of Seattle - Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan
Scandanavian Journal of Health - Glioblastoma Multiforme
Tacoma Smelter Plume Information - Washington Department of Ecology
King County Community Health Indicators - King County (Top 10 Leading Causes of Death)
King County Public Health -School District Health Profiles
King County Health Profile
King County Public Health - Data and Reports

Blog Articles:
Externalities and Risk - The Seattle-Tacoma International Airport
Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Environmental Issues
Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Pollution

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Pollution

Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, Third Runway,Sea Tac, Washington

Environmental impacts of the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport present a number of issues, as discussed in my previous blog articles, Externalities and Risk - The Seattle-Tacoma International Airport and The Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Environmental Issues. Cities around the airport such as Burien, Sea Tac, Tukwila, Normandy Park and Des Moines have gained economically from airport operations and have suffered costs, or externalities from airport operations.

The airport and the trade that it generates are the 800 pound gorilla in the neighborhood, are the drivers of economic change and development, and through the multiplier effect are responsible for a great deal of economic development in the region which they do not directly manage.

It is clear to those living in the neighborhood of the airport that there are considerable externalities involved with regards to airport operations. Citizens note the impact of air and noise pollution.  It is also true that the airport has a significant impact on the larger region.  Increased airport operations may necessitate it compressing activities within its existing space, enlarging its footprint by buying properties, or having some operations move to other airports. Airports in the region include Renton Municipal Airport, King County Airport/Boeing Field and Paine Field in Everett.  Moses Lake in Eastern Washington, which has a large runway, could even be considered a possibility to relieve additional load.

A recent Sea Tac City Council meeting (April 16, 2015) addressed a number of these issues, looking towards long term growth in airport utilization (2.9% average per year over a twenty year period with greater increase in the near term), and the potential of a Federal Aviation Agency building to the South of the Airport. There is already a Federal Detention Center to the south of the airport.  Some airport usages, such as food services, could potentially move outside the perimeter of the airport.

It is difficult to extract the specific environmental impact of the airport on the region from other sources of pollution, to attribute differences in health and socioeconomic metrics to specific environmental factors when air, noise and electromagnetic waves show no boundaries, and where there are many other sources of pollution including cars, trucks and other industries or point sources. There are feedback mechanism which work between all the relevant variables which complicate analysis.

There are a variety of studies available from governmental sources regarding emissions, sociological parameters and assessing the risk from the pollutants that the public is exposed to. These studies present analytic challenges due to the extensive number of variables involved, the manner in which the variables are measured (or not measured), their subjectivity and issues of comparability over time.

The environment around the airport serves as a metaphor for the environmental challenges that confront us, an example that is repeated in other environments.  Thus any studies done in the microclimate or vicinity of the airport could be used as examples for other areas facing similar issues. The situation around the airport must be examined in the context of the growth and economic development issues that we face, so that we can develop policy which will help us face the increasing social and economic challenges that face us.

A Washington Department of Health and King County Department of Public Health study in 1999 provides an example of a report that is focused on the area around the airport, looking at one, three and five mile bands around the airport.  Perhaps this report could be expanded to include the examination of additional variables of concern.  This report looked at the condition of glioblastoma, a neurological cancer disorder and other conditions. King County Department of Health has an extensive variety of reports available on health and sociological issues.

Future studies must include all communities impacted in the area around the airport, including those indicated in the first paragraph.  The larger question is how the externalities of airport operation may be addressed and compensated for, and the needs of the immediate and larger communities met.  It is apparent that there is a problem, that it does impact health and well being, including both psychological well being and physiological well being.  While another study would be valuable, and should be done, as the study is undertaken, steps should be taken to remedy the immediate situation in the face of increased economic development.  Perhaps permanent residential properties in the close vicinity of the airport can be purchased and used for their operations which can be moved outside the fence.

However difficult it is to bring all the variable together in a rigid analytic framework, analysis of the situation becomes apparent when you take a step back and look at the big picture.  The airport has a profound effect that does not appear to be captured fully by the measurements that are provided to us. Human beings are being experimented on, and the environment around the airport is transforming people, perhaps in a way that they do not wish to be transformed.  This issue has profound psychological, medical, economic and sociological implications.

Examination of the situation presents a number of analytic problems, many of which involve measurements and their interpretation. I discuss these issues in this and future blog articles.

The Pollutants

• The wide range of pollutants discussed form a witch's brew of chemicals, including diesel particulate matter, cadmium, arsenic, polycyclic aromatichydrocarbons (PAHs), lead, and many others.
• Air quality and water quality standards do not exist for many of the pollutants mentioned, presenting a problem in taking regulatory action.
• Pollutants may interact in unexpected ways.  With so many pollutants, and so many combinations, it may be difficult to ascertain the impact of all the interactions and the direct contribution of the airport to those interaction.  
• While it may be difficult to attribute the direct contribution of the airport to pollutant levels, the airport's impact through the multiplier effect gives greater credibility to the airport's contribution to overall pollutant levels.  At that point it becomes an issue of assigning the costs of those externalities to those benefiting from the airport's presence through the multiplier effect. An example of this would be shuttle pick up services and cabs.
• Pollutants may combine with meteorological or solar conditions in unexpected ways, perhaps generating new, transitory, and unanticipated chemical reactions
• The movement of pollutant monitors over time makes it difficult to perform long term studies analyzing the impact of pollution on public health.  Opportunity to measure long term trends and make comparisons between stations is decreased when stations are moved elsewhere.
• The methods of measuring pollutants and standards for assessing health risks have changed over the years, especially as new equipment has been developed. Questions arise as to what extent new measurement methods correlate with old methods, what information is gained or lost by using these new methods, and how the continuity of data has been impacted.
• There are locations which have not been monitored, at the western edge of the airport, which may represent a microclimate more susceptible to the pooling of polluted air, especially during inversions when the air is stagnant, considering the barrier formed by the third runway's berm.
• It is not clear to what extent the aquifer is impacted by pollutants affecting water quality, and to what extent any water pollution is due to airport operations or property.  This is an issue reflecting the Tacoma Smelter Plume and any fill underlaying the airport and its impact on the environment and other issues.
• It is difficult to ascertain the contributions of the individual sources to the pollutant load in the area, although to a certain extent usage of fuels of various types may serve as a proxy.
• While there is some information on noise levels, the metrics do not do a sufficient job of measuring the risk and the impacts. Noise decibel level frequency distributions would be helpful, especially in capturing the impact of engine backblast. It is clear that the full time population lives too close to the airport for the noise levels experienced.  Increased insulation helps, but to have full impact, requires windows to be closed.  The experience of the Federal Detention Center in Sea Tac might be helpful in analyzing this issue.
• The focus on carbon dioxide has been on its contribution as a greenhouse gas to global warming.  While this is important on a global scale, the impacts of carbon dioxide in smaller areas, microclimates may be important to analyze in so far as they may impact the emergence of health conditions.
• Air traffic control and weather radars may contribute to a variety of health conditions through the generation of electromagnetic fields ranging from 300 MHz to 15 GHz which fit within the microwave energy spectrum.  Microwaves are electromagnetic waves with frequencies between 300 MHz and 300 GHz.  It would be helpful to have more monitoring information regarding electromagnetic fields and their attenuation over distance resulting from airport operations, including radar and radio signals.
• Study results discussing pollutant results with other parameters are sometimes expressed as not exceeding a certain standard level.   It would be helpful to present the actual data values themselves, so that the public can ascertain how close the levels are to exceeding standards, and what their trends are. 

I will discuss health and other issues in the next blog article.

Sources of Information
Puget Sound Clean Air Agency - Final Report - Puget Sound Air Toxics Evaluation - October 2003
Department of Ecology - Toxic Cleanup Program (ASARCO Smelter Plume)
World Health Organization - Electromagnetic Fields
Port of Seattle - Part 150 Study
Port of Seattle - Groundwater Monitoring
Port of Seattle - Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan
Scandanavian Journal of Health - Glioblastoma Multiforme
Tacoma Smelter Plume Information - Washington Department of Ecology
King County Community Health Indicators - King County (Top 10 Leading Causes of Death)
King County Public Health -School District Health Profiles
King County Health Profile
King County Public Health - Data and Reports

Climate Change and Carbon

Plume from Stack, Longview, Washington

Global Warming and Climate change are important topics.  Recent talks at the United Nations have highlighted the concern about these planetary issues that go beyond borders and seek to unite people in discovering means to solve the emerging problems.

The United Nations climate change site indicates that 2014 is on track to being among the hottest on record.  Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change states "Fortunately our political climate is changing too with evidence that governments, supported by investors, business and cities are moving towards a meaningful, universal climate agreement in Paris 2015 - an agreement that keeps a global temperature rise below 2 degrees C by putting in place the pathways to a deep de-carbonisation of the world's economy and climate neutrality or 'net zero' in the second half of the century."

A recent article in Scientific American discusses United Nations climate talks in Paris last December. As the article indicates "(The planet's surface has warmed about 0.85 degrees C (1.5 degrees F) since 1880, worsening floods, storms and deadly heat waves.) The 2 degrees C target has since become a keystone goal of the negotiations."

NASA's, Global Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet displays information about climate change. including graphs and latest measurements.  This information shows steadily increasing recorded carbon dioxide levels in recent history, with inputed history obtained from ice cores indicating significant variation from historical levels over three glaciation periods. Ice cores have been drawn from the Arctic, Antarctic and mountain glaciers.  The measured value as of January 2015 showed 399.73 parts per million (ppm), just under 400 ppm. At current rates it should exceed 400 ppm in February 2015.

Snow Hill Island, Antarctic Peninsula, Antarctica

 NASA's Climate Change site provides information on Global Temperature.  Five year averages in global temperature are measured relative to a 1951-1980 average temperature baseline, indicating a dip in global temperature around 1910 and a steady rise since then.

Global Warming concerns have fostered considerable research  on climate change issues, seeking ways to mitigate the impacts of climate change, providing potential solutions.  Climate change and environmental issues have been addressed at local, state, federal and international levels.   The CIA World Factbook provides a list of Current Environmental issues and international agreements which countries listed are a "party to" and/or "signed, but not ratified".

I discuss some of the issues relating to climate change, including global health in other blog articles relating to Climate Change and Global Health  and Avian Flu.

Carbon, and especially carbon dioxide are sequestered in a number of areas on the planet, including in the rocks and in the oceans.  Other greenhouse gases, such as methane, are sequestered in areas such as Arctic Tundra, and in the oceans.  The questions remain as to how much capacity does our planet have to sequester carbon, without over stressing the resource with storage demands and whether there is a risk that carbon which has been already sequestered might be released back into the environment.

An outgassing of carbon dioxide at Lake Nyos (1986), in Africa, illustrates the problem which can occur with a body of water that is saturated with carbon dioxide.  Lake Nyos lies above a pocket of magma and is one of only three lakes saturated with carbon dioxide.  Lake Nyos is not the size of the ocean, however.

It is clear that carbon, and carbon dioxide are keystone issues in addressing global warming and climate change.  Global warming is especially sensitive to changes in carbon dioxide, as increases in carbon dioxide can also lead to increases in water vapor in the atmosphere, as indicated by a NASA report. Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas.  Thus, increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can act in a positive feedback manner to increase the greenhouse effect.

Just as carbon dioxide is a sensitive indicator in the atmosphere, and may represent a bifurcation between different climatological paradigms, one pursues, seeks and finds answers as to the equivalent impact that changing carbon dioxide atmospheric concentrations have on the human body, which is also a sensitive indicator of climate change. These findings have implications for Global Health, as well the psychosocial milieu in which mankind experiences climate change.

These are all very serious issues worthy of further research, consideration and action. The key question is the manner in which homeostasis is achieved, given the climate change issues.

World Health Organization Report on Air Pollution and Health

                   Orca Whale, Haze, Strait of Juan de Fuca, British Columbia, 9/18/2012

A report released 3/25/2014 by the World Health Organization attributed one in eight deaths to the impacts from air pollution.   The report indicated that 7 million people died in 2012 as a result of air pollution, making air pollution the greatest single environmental health risk.   The WHO report provides fact sheets on Ambient (Outdoor) Pollution and on Indoor Pollution.   The WHO report displays a number of informative graphical presentations of the world wide distribution and impact of air pollution.  These presentations include the Exposure to Ambient Air Pollution and Mortality from Ambient Air Pollution.

 As the WHO graphs show, high income nations such as the United States had better air quality results.  The United States has a regulatory presence in the air pollution field with the Environmental Protection Agency, state agencies such as the State of Washington's Department of Ecology and local agencies such as the Puget Sound Clean Air Agency providing regulatory oversight. 

Air pollution is a global problem, as it can cross borders with global air flow.  The regulatory climate in one nation may impact other nations downwind from it. Thus nations are concerned about the regulatory climate in other countries.

The impact of air pollution goes beyond the health issues pointed out in the WHO article.  It also impacts economic relationships between countries.  Corporations arbitrage the cost in complying with air pollution regulations in their decisions as to where to locate by excluding the economic cost of externalities in pricing. 

Countries who do not have as stringent air pollution regulations will thus attract more business due to the lower costs associated with lesser compliance.  This results in consumers purchasing goods at lower prices, which do not reflect the externalities associated with the degradation in air quality. These externalities include the costs of increased morbidity and mortality of not only those in the area producing the pollution but in those areas downwind which may be subject to the pollution.  The downwind spread will reflect the nature of the pollutant and atmospheric conditions.

The above photo was taken in the Strait of Juan de Fuca between Washington State and British Columbia, looking west, through the haze, on a calm fall day.  The haze reflects the impact of suspended particulates, atmospheric aerosols, and the marine air mass.  Another photo, taken looking east on the same day, shows the impact of forest fires in Eastern Washington on air quality in views of Mt Baker and the Cascade Mountains.  

It is an interesting exercise to consider the relative contributions of air pollution from foreign and domestic sources.  This is especially challenging when atmospheric conditions encourage the mixing of different sources in a stagnant setting and contributions to health issues need to be considered.   An article in the Smithsonian (1/21/14) discusses contributions of air pollution from China to air pollution in the United States.

Externalities

Externalities


Refinery Exhaust Stacks, Anacortes, Washington (image on Photoshelter)

Air pollution from a fixed stack is a good example that can be used to explain the concept of an externality. I discussed the externalities previously in a blog article (Risk and Externalities) in the context of the BP oil spill and its widespread impact in the Gulf of Mexico.

On the production side, externalities come into play when the full cost of production is not reflected in the cost of the good.

Air pollution emissions may contain various pollutants, gaseous and particulate matter. The area impacted and the degree of impact will be affected by the pollutants released and the meteorological conditions.

For example, a temperature inversion will keep cold air close to the surface under a layer of warm air so that the air does not mix well vertically. The pollutants will be kept closer to the surface and their impact will be greater.

Sulfur dioxide emissions may impact lakes and fish (as acid rain), and thus ecosystems. Sulfur dioxide is a harmful pollutant for humans as well as fish. Sulfur dioxide can adhere to airborne suspended particulate matter. If the particulate matter is small, this may ease entry into the lung where the sulfur dioxide can do greater harm.

Air pollution is a direct result of the manufacturing process that extends from the stack into the community and beyond. It’s impact results in costs to others. Thus there are costs associated with air pollution that are not included in the production costs. To the extent that this is true, the product produced is under priced, and the public, an external entity, is paying those additional costs.

Costs include medical costs, as well as reduced life expectancy due to the pollution. Air pollution, in addition to being unhealthy, reduces visibility, may add odor, and adds quality of life issues. Pollution impacts maintenance of buildings and other structures.

Determing costs attributable to air pollution is a complex problem. There have been studies done to ascertain such costs. For example, a RAND study looked at health costs in California attributable to air pollution above state standards. That study would reflect air pollution due to a variety of causes, not just the point sources discussed in this blog article. California has a great deal of automobile pollution which contributes to carbon monoxide and ozone pollution problems.

Monitoring and regulation of air pollutants requires resources as well. Air pollution regulation and monitoring exists at the federal, state and local levels.

To reiterate, the producer’s price does not reflect these costs. Thus the price of the good is under priced with respect to other options because it does not include the cost of these “external” costs which others must bear.

When full external costs are brought into the mix, the producer’s price must necessarily increase. As it increases, other competing options may become more attractive and the producer may lose business. Alternatively, the producer may choose to upgrade the method of production to reduce the pollution, a cost they may not be willing to take if full external costs were included.

Air pollution is one example of an externality.

The situation becomes more complicated where the risk matrix considers low probability, high risk events. Such events may be difficult to estimate and to price for. Even assuming these low probability, high risk events could be reasonably priced for, it may be impossible for the producer to compete with prices reflecting such a risk margin. Competitors in the same field may refuse to include such a risk margin, thus driving the producer out of business. Competitors in other fields without such a risk margin will be at an advantage.

Where the risk margin for the low probability, high impact event is not priced for and is not included in the pricing there is the potential for considerable externality impacts should the low probability high impact risk event materialize.

As previous nuclear disasters have shown, the low probability, high risk event presents considerable externality issues in the nuclear arena, considering the serious impacts of radiation. (See my blog articles, Chernobyl 25th Anniversary and Energy Choices and Risk).