Processing Risk and Uncertainty

Koi Surfacing, Japanese Gardens, Washington Park Arboreteum, Seattle, Washington

In my last blog posting I discussed the question of how we integrate our feelings, our sensations, perceptions with scales we use to measure risk. My discussion centered around the Japan 9.0 Earthquake and the moment magnitude scale used to measure it.

In fact, the earthquake was originally judged to be an 8.9 by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and subsequently upgraded to 9.0 by the USGS. The moment magnitude scale, being logarithmic, meant that this reassessment implied a 41% more intense earthquake than the original 8.9. This reflects logarithmic scales in action.

As the disaster unfolded, the world could see the Japanese heroically struggling with a trifecta of horrors -- the initial earthquake itself, the tsunami that followed, and the accident at the Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant (Fukushima Daiichi) in Fukushima, Japan.

News coverage of the Japan disaster was continuous in the media. However, with military intervention in Libya by a group of nations including the Canada, France, Italty, United Kingdom and the United States, the coverage of the Japan disaster on television has diminished.

How do we respond when events are at the forefront of the news? How do we respond when they are forced by circumstance to share the spotlight with other compelling, competing issues or even tucked away out of sight? How do we respond with our feelings towards others in their disaster, or triumph, and how do we translate those feelings into our own forward seeking risk assessments?

Indeed, there are compelling issues on the horizon, decisions to be made, and the evolving situation in Japan is certain to be a part of the equation in attempting to balance risks in managing our future with respect to energy, focus and other issues.


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