Energy Choices and Risk

Japan’s March 11, 2011 Tohoku 9.0 earthquake, ensuing tsunami and nuclear incident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Plant have reminded us all that nuclear plants are subject to risk. This should be no surprise, as all sources of energy are subject to some degree of risk. In fact, just about everything in life has some degree of risk attached to it. However, nuclear plants, with their added radioactivity risk, present a considerable challenge in managing the lower probability, higher impact events.

We face global, environmental challenges in managing climate change issues. These climate change issues affect both micro-climates and have a planet-wide impact. In order to meet these considerable challenges, nuclear energy must be a part of the solution along with other energy options. We must seek to understand and mitigate risks facing nuclear plants as we go forward to solve the larger planet-wide problem which affects us all.

It has been almost 25 years since the April 26, 1986 nuclear incident at Chernobyl, in the Ukraine. That incident was ranked at “7” on the International Event Scale. The Three Mile Island Accident, beginning on March 28, 1979 ranked as a “5”. That incident, occurring exactly 32 years ago, took place at the Three Mile Island Plant in Middletown, Pennsylvania. The Fukushima Nuclear Accidents have so far been ranked as high as a “5”, and the situation has not yet been resolved .

In the midst of the efforts to bring the Fukushima Reactors under control, there have been calls to reexamine the safety of nuclear power plants. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) called for a meeting before the summer to discuss an assessment of the Fukushima accident, lessons to be learned, strengthened safety measures and strengthened responses to future incidents.

As the Japanese workers worked on the reactor, rating agencies Moody’s Japan K.K. and Standard and Poors downgraded Tokyo Electric Power Company (Tepco’s) long term debt. Moody’s indicated that it saw risk in GE’s nuclear business, although it did not downgrade GE, which contributes 1% of GE’s annual $100 billion revenue. GE was the designer of the Fukushima nuclear power plants., and the supplier of reactors 1,2 and 6.

At the same time, ongoing issues regarding the storage of the nation’s nuclear waste are unfolding. This waste includes waste from commercial nuclear plants and military/defense waste products. The waste is stored in a variety of locations, ranging from storage on site to storage at the Hanford Site, in Washington State, where two-thirds of the nation’s high-level radioactive waste is stored. The storage issues are complex, involving the removal of the nation’s only designated nuclear waste repository from consideration, and related litigation by states (Washington and South Carolina) and regulators (National Association of Regulatory Utility Commissioners).

We should develop an energy strategy that optimizes the risk profiles of the various types of power generation (including nuclear). This strategy should be science-based, above politics, in the interest of the nation (and world) as a whole, reflecting our responsibilities to the environment both in theory and in practice, and appropriately reflecting risks in pricing decisions.

Processing Risk and Uncertainty

Koi Surfacing, Japanese Gardens, Washington Park Arboreteum, Seattle, Washington

In my last blog posting I discussed the question of how we integrate our feelings, our sensations, perceptions with scales we use to measure risk. My discussion centered around the Japan 9.0 Earthquake and the moment magnitude scale used to measure it.

In fact, the earthquake was originally judged to be an 8.9 by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and subsequently upgraded to 9.0 by the USGS. The moment magnitude scale, being logarithmic, meant that this reassessment implied a 41% more intense earthquake than the original 8.9. This reflects logarithmic scales in action.

As the disaster unfolded, the world could see the Japanese heroically struggling with a trifecta of horrors -- the initial earthquake itself, the tsunami that followed, and the accident at the Fukushima I Nuclear Power Plant (Fukushima Daiichi) in Fukushima, Japan.

News coverage of the Japan disaster was continuous in the media. However, with military intervention in Libya by a group of nations including the Canada, France, Italty, United Kingdom and the United States, the coverage of the Japan disaster on television has diminished.

How do we respond when events are at the forefront of the news? How do we respond when they are forced by circumstance to share the spotlight with other compelling, competing issues or even tucked away out of sight? How do we respond with our feelings towards others in their disaster, or triumph, and how do we translate those feelings into our own forward seeking risk assessments?

Indeed, there are compelling issues on the horizon, decisions to be made, and the evolving situation in Japan is certain to be a part of the equation in attempting to balance risks in managing our future with respect to energy, focus and other issues.


American Red Cross Donations

Log in the Surf - 8.9 Japan Earthquake (9.0 updated)

Log in the Surf, Westport, Washington, November 6, 2009 as waves pound Westport, Washington causing flooding. (Flickr.com - Marilyn Dunstan)

The USGS updated the magnitude of the earthquake to 9.0 on March 14, 2011

The above picture, captured in Westport, Washington, as waves pounded the shore and caused flooding downtown, doesn’t come anywhere near to doing justice to the devastation in Japan after the 8.9 earthquake. The log, as small as it seems in the distance of the breaking wave, however, serves as a metaphor, as it seems to come out of nowhere, to be crashed with great force upon the shore. To the beach goer these logs represent unseen risk until they emerge from the seas of possibility and are thrust upon the beach.

I watched the enfolding news on CNN of the magnitude 8.9 earthquake off the east coat of Honshu, Japan. The earthquake, which occurred at 05:46:23 UTC on March 11, 2011, has been devastating for the Japanese people. The earthquake, the tsunami that followed, the tragic loss of life and injury, the damage to structures (including nuclear power plants) and communities has had a devastating impact.

Due to the scope of the event, and its aftermath, which is still unfolding, it will take some time to assess the full extent of the damage. As of this writing, there is worry about a possible nuclear plant meltdown (Voice of America article).

My thoughts go out to the Japanese people, and others impacted, with the hopes that aid can help reach those in need and aid in the rebuilding.

How do you fathom such a devastating event with such a magnitude? How do you measure an event such as this, perceive and integrate it on all levels?

Earthquakes are measured by scales. The Richter scale was commonly used to measure earthquake magnitudes. However the Moment Magnitude Scale is the preferred magnitude used by the United States Geological Society (USGS), as explained in the USGS link. The scales used to measure earthquakes are base 10 logarithmic scales.

The Moment Magnitude Scales of two earthquakes can be used to compare their relative intensities, as indicated in the Wikipedia article. It involves solving for the scalar moment, determining the ratio of scalar moments being considered, and boiling down the resulting equation. For two earthquakes with moment magnitude scales M1 and M2 this relative intensity boils down to 10^(1.5*(M1-M2)).

This formula shows how the relative factor between earthquakes remains the same for the same differences in Moment Magnitude, regardless of whether you are referring to differences between 5 and 5.1 or 7 and 7.1. In either case, the earthquake will be 1.4 times as intense as the earthquake you are comparing with. Similarly a 6.0 earthquake will be 31.6 times as intense as a 5.0 earthquake and an 8.0 earthquake will be 31.6 times as intense as a 7.0 earthquake. A 7.0 earthquake will be one-thousand times as intense as a 5.0 earthquake and a 9.0 earthquake will be one-million times as intense as a 5.0 earthquake.

With geometric progression the intensity curve explodes upwards at higher end magnitudes as the factor is applied to larger an larger numbers.

How do we incorporate our feelings, our sensations, our perceptions associated the an earthquake, and associated events, and how do we integrate those perceptions with the scale used to measure them? Our brains have to build some type of association, a risk measurement that links this experience together.

This is an important question as we deal with forward pointing risk assessment and risk management, as we use our minds to project both risk and opportunity.

A Basketball Photo Essay

Garfield High School Boys Basketball Team, Seattle in the 2011 Washington Class 4A Tournament, Tacoma Dome, Tacoma, Washington...a basketball photo essay.

Glenn Brooks (1), Garfield H.S., Washington Class 4A Tournament, Tacoma Dome, Tacoma, Washington

Garfield H.S., Seattle played Puyallup H.S. , Puyallup, Gonzaga Prep, Spokane and Curtis H.S., University Place, in the Washington Class 4A Tournament, at the Tacoma Dome, Tacoma, Washington, March, 2011. I’ve woven together thoughts and images of the competitive experience.

Daeshon Hall, Garfield H.S., Washington Class 4A Tournament, Tacoma Dome, Tacoma, Washington

Basketball is a competitive sport that combines so many elements of mental and physical ability, weaving speed with abrupt changes in movement, precision and sometimes solitude on the free throw line. It embraces elements of strategy, as the game clock may determine forcing the pace of the game. The leading team may elect to slow the pace down, playing keep away. The losing team may commit deliberate fouls, forcing the leading team to make foul shots, trading for clock time and shot opportunity.

Glenn Brooks (1), Garfield H.S., Chris Sarbaugh (24), Parker Kelly (10), Gonzaga Prep, Washington Class 4A Tournament, Tacoma Dome, Tacoma, Washington

Does the guard bringing the ball down the court elect to take the jump shot at a distance, pass off the ball to another player closer in to the basket, or perhaps to a wing man in the corner? Or does he drive down the key, finding a route inside without committing a charging foul, and make a layup or even dunk the ball?

Tony Wroten (2), Garfield H.S., Washington Class 4A Tournament, Tacoma Dome, Tacoma, Washington

These are all decisions basketball players need to make and they often make these decisions very quickly, in an instant, as matters change very fast on the basketball court. They are not pulling up an Excel spreadsheet on their cell phones and calculating the odds, or mulling it over, sleeping on it overnight. The brain does this type of calculation very well and quickly.

Garfield Player and Parker Kelly (10) (Gonzaga Prep)., Washington Class 4A Tournament, Tacoma Dome, Tacoma, Washington

Competition sets up a sense of flow, a flow to a goal, victory in the game, or perhaps beyond when a season title or a championship are involved. This sense of flow, being “in the game” may mean that shots flow more accurately, hitting only mesh, that the rebounding opportunities are there for the taking and that free throws are made, early and often. At other times, it seems, that teams can’t buy a shot.

Tucker Haymond (23), Garfield H.S. and Parker Kelly (10) (Gonzaga Prep)., Washington Class 4A Tournament, Tacoma Dome, Tacoma, Washington

It is a game of drama and intensity. Of emotion carefully crafted to play with intensity yet avoid excessive fouling which would give the player a ticket out of the game. Sometimes things flare out of proportion. It is the essence of sportsmanship to keep them from doing so as it could hurt the team.

Garfield Players and Coach, Timeout, Washington Class 4A Tournament, Tacoma Dome, Tacoma, Washington

However, there is no doubt that emotion can be used as a tool to fuel the players’ motivation to win the game. This is one function of a coaches timeout....to retool strategy and reignite emotion.

Tony Wroten (2) Shoting Free Throw, Will Dorsey (3) Behind, Garfield H.S., Washington Class 4A Tournament, Tacoma Dome, Tacoma, Washington

It is at the foul line where the pace momentarily slows. The player fouled stands on the line without contention, object of attention, studying and then shooting the free throw. Is the object to make the free throw? Most of the time it is. However a missed free throw on the second shot could lead to a rebound, a successful basket and a three point play.

In the end, one team has to lose. It may be because the winner has a stronger team, it may be because the losing team had an off night, or peaked too soon. Whatever the reason, the game was played, the decision rendered.

Tony Wroten (2), Garfield H.S., Washington Class 4A Tournament, Tacoma Dome, Tacoma, Washington

Rebounding is an asset in a basketball game, and so it is also an asset in being able to come back from a tough loss and win the next game. This is true resilience. It helps the athlete not only in the game they just won, but in fostering resilience down the road in games against other opponents, whether in High School or beyond, playing under the lights.

Tony Wroten (2), Garfield H.S. Guard, will be attending the University of Washington where he will playing Washington Husky Basketball.

The Garfield Bulldogs won their quarterfinal game against the Puyallup Vikings 90-80. The Garfield Bulldogs lost their Semifinal game to Gonzaga Prep Bullpups 53-66, who went on to beat Curtis H.S Vikings, University Place in the Washington Class 4A Tournament Finals 61-41.

The Garfield Bulldogs came back to win against the A.C. Davis Pirates, Yakima, Washington 75-68 to capture third place in the Washington Class 4A Tournament. Garfield H.S., coached by Coach Ed Haskins and his staff has an outstanding basketball tradition and can look forward to many great seasons.

Discovery - The Will to Explore and Space Shuttle Discovery

The Moon

We look up into the night sky, especially in some spot far away from city lights, and see the moon and stars. The ancients found faces in the moon and named loose collections of stars for things they could identify with, and used them as symbolic tokens and for navigation. Thus we have constellations named “Capricorn” and “Virgo” and archers and bears gracing the night sky. For many the stars assemble themselves in easily fed advice, stating things such as “feed your mind today“ or “today is a good time to chill out”. For others, the moon and stars represent a dream of future exploration, an accumulation of human knowledge, and mapping out human destiny.

There are some that look at the cost of space exploration and turn aside, thinking it too expensive, not worthy of pursuit. To these individuals, all they see is the need that currently exists on earth, and thus the opportunity cost of space exploration is expressed in terms of what could otherwise be done with the money spent on space exploration. Understanding their concern is easy, considering the extent of earth’s problems, however such individuals don’t appreciate the considerable societal benefits that space exploration confers.

Many technological advances that have occurred in the framework of the space program went on to fuel major technological achievements in the public and private sectors These advances have brought forth new industries, and have fueled overall job creation via the multiplier effect in the general economy, generating a significant economic gain and better standard of living.

NASA’s Space Shuttle Discovery is currently flying on it’s last mission. Discovery has completed more than 30 successful missions since its first flight on August 30, 1984. It has performed both assembly missions for the International Space Station (ISS) and research missions.

Discovery takes its name from a long line of historical vessels that have ventured forth to explore and discover, including Henry Hudson’s Discovery, used to explore Hudson Bay in 1610-11 in an attempt to find the Northwest Passage. The Space Shuttle Discovery has been emblematic of the quest to explore and discover new territories and new meanings. NASA Television can be viewed to get an idea of activity on the Space Shuttle.