Wikileaks and the Problem of Categorization

At the New Year 2011 we wait for the next chapter in the continuing saga that is Wikileaks. A look at news articles under “Wikileaks” displays the many concepts that Wikileaks has touched.

In my view, the most profound concept to come from the Wikileaks saga is how we define categories and how that categorization reflects changing technology. We form mental categories, assigning meaning to events based on our experiences and the internal representations of those experiences. The richness of life reflects how these categories vary between people, places, events.

Society organizes around these categories with laws and social norms. Concepts thread their way from the dawn of time to the present, providing a beacon around which to organize.

Over time, these structures have been built around differing sets of risks and rewards as technology and social norms have evolved. As we inherently consider risks and rewards in our decision making, the fact that risks (and rewards) have changed so much with advancing technology means that structures and concepts will be reexamined to reflect those changes.

The ability for small changes to leverage themselves so quickly over such a wide area provides opportunity for considerable rewards but at the same presents considerable risks. It is incumbent upon us as a society to examine both elements, risk and reward and to reflect how we categorize the many things that impact our life. These are issues society must decide as it moves forward.

Seasons Greetings

Cascade Mountains, Mt Rainier National Park, originally uploaded by Marilyn Dunstan Photography.

This photo, taken in the Cascade Mountains, within Mt Rainier National Park, Washington captures the beauty of the season.

We're one in nature
Sharing the spirit we see
A wondrous design

Risk and Externalities

Western Sandpipers Flying (blurred motion), Ocean Shores, Washington

Events are unfolding as the President’s Commission continues its inquiries into the 2010 Gulf Oil Spill. A major focus is around the cement used to plug the Macondo well. As Halliburton was a contractor for BP, issues of responsibility swirl around the interpretation of contractual language as well as actions in determining responsibility. These issues then emerge into the financial marketplace in as part of stock decisions and rating agency actions.

The decisions made by Halliburton and BP regarding the cementing and associated issues will be exposed to heavy scrutiny. The degree of indemnification provided to Halliburton in the BP-Halliburton contract will be closely examined and interpreted. Time will tell where all the lawsuits will come down, how many civil and criminal penalties will be assessed, and to who.

It is likely the quantum of risk will reflect decision-making processes in key areas such as the cementing issue. Those decisions should reflect the impact of externalities on the risk-decision spectrum. The question will be how much weight was given to immediate issues of cost and time versus the long tail risk of a disaster, including the impact of a spill on the coastal areas, the ocean ecosystem and birds that don’t buy stocks, don’t pump gas and whose idea of take out is a worm coming out of the sand.

Societies like to look at redress, at making victims whole, bringing back ecosystems. The concern is where does the money come from to accomplish these goals and is it enough? Redress also includes assessing and enforcing responsibility. Societies also need to address solutions looking forward to help prevent and mitigate future disasters, including regulatory and other solutions.

Time Warp Pelican

The Pelican has taken a ride through a time and has been transported back onto a clean, but very warped beach. Gone are the dark and sticky gobs of oil that festooned his long bill and elegant feathers.

He couldn’t believe it when his fellow birds had elected him to be “the one”. He had never gotten along well with the cormorants and the shorebirds were beneath him even as to let them pick off bits of oil from his greasy oil soaked exterior. They had collectively forced him up to the giant whirlpool in the delta and pushed him into its giant roiling maw where he could enter the watery chasms of time and re-enter at a point before the fateful Gulf oil spill. Now, clean and presentable and with his flying skills at their peak, he was ready to fulfill his destiny and turn back the hands of time so that the spill would not occur.

Wouldn’t it be nice if we could reverse the arrow of time, to put the oil spill genie back in the bottle? Wouldn’t it be great if we could revert to the last saved game state when some disaster occurs and change our choices for the better?. Unfortunately we cannot do that, We must make better decisions in the here and now. We must help anticipate and mitigate the risks we face as individuals, organizations, governments and society as a whole.

There has been a great deal of discussion in the media regarding BP and the oil spill. National Geographic has an excellent article on the Gulf oil spill that spells out many issues surrounding this disaster. The BP oil spill is one example of many where risk management issues played a role.

More on risk in the next article.

....Marilyn Dunstan

Balance of Risks - Photography and Society

Accident Scene on Alaskan Way Viaduct, Seattle

With added focus on security, photographers may come under increased scrutiny when photographing in public. In the United Kingdom., increased restrictions have led to photographers meeting to protest the strictness of the new rules and their implementation as discussed in a Guardian.co.uk article . Understanding the processes that each side brings to an encounter can help defuse a situation.

Photographers understand that the law gives them the right to photograph in public places. Their focus is the image, the story, and their rights to photograph. They may view attempts to prevent them from photographing in public as infringing on their rights in a free society. Freedom of expression helps to maintain a free nation and curtailment of these rights endangers that same free expression.

The police are men and women who put their lives on the line to protect us. The speeding driver they stop may have an outstanding warrant and a gun. The man photographing a structure or facility may be abetting an act of terrorism . The police are trained to be vigilant because in doing so they protect both the public and themselves from danger. These adverse risks may be those at the long end of the bell curve -- statistically the chance the photographer is a terrorist is very small. However the police officer must always consider the risks at the end of the bell curve because of the considerable consequence of ignoring a real problem.

This leads to the topic of Type I and Type II error. Consider if the null-hypothesis is that "the photographer is a terrorist". A Type I error would be to reject the null-hypothesis ("the photographer is a terrorist") when it is actually true. A Type II error would be to accept the null-hypothesis ("the photographer is a terrorist") when it is actually false and should have been rejected. A low Type I error rate would have a high specificity. Rejecting the null-hypothesis when the null-hypothesis is true could happen, for example, when a police officer questions a photographer who is photographing a public structure, releases him, and he turns out to be a terrorist. A low Type II error rate would have a high sensitivity. An example of Type II error would be if the policeman treats the photographer as a terrorist and he turns out to be just a photographer.

Ultimately, setting appropriate Type I and Type II error standards is the job of the governments, and thus the people whom they represent. How many rights do you want to tread upon in exchange for "perfect" protection from risk? What degree of risk of personal property loss and loss of lives are you willing to accept in exchange for "perfect" freedom of expression? Laws must reflect these conscious decisions about how civil society should be governed.

While we need to be concerned about being protected from terrorism, we also need to make sure our rights aren't whittled away in the process, thus undercutting the very foundation of our freedoms. This risk of losing our rights is a byproduct of decreasing the Type I error rate while allowing the Type II error rate to rise. This can be restated as interrogating more photographers in order to cut the risk of a terrorist photographing a target building. It's in the best interest of society to have all the relevant variables well defined and set forth in the law and procedures and to maintain a healthy balance of risk.

This is a process that should involve police and photographers as well as lawmakers and other public officials as they seek to understand the challenges that each party faces, and seek to cooperate in solving the underlying problems. This is a discussion that involves many viewpoints, including this blog entry regarding an interaction with a security guard.

Risk

Fishing Boat off Cape Arago, Oregon (barely visible at right)

In all manner of things, large and small, we weigh our risks. Do we bring our umbrella with us to the theater or walk in the light rain? Do we take the first parking space or try to find a closer one and risk losing our space? We process these types of risk/benefit decisions continually as these everyday decisions are thrown at us in the course of our lives. The relative weight we give these outcomes changes over time and by circumstance. For example, if we are fighting off a cold we may be more apt to bring the umbrella.

Larger risks represent greater challenges. The stakes are higher, more is on the line and the effect of the risk may be more difficult to quantify. In the image shown of the fishing boat off Cape Arago in rough weather, there are potential risks involving life and property with deteriorating conditions. The sturdiness of the vessel, condition of its engine and electronics and human elements all have impacts on the risk equation as do the emerging weather and sea conditions.

Major geological events present even greater risks, with very low probabilities of occurrence and severe loss potential. Haiti's 2010, 7.0 earthquake represents the actual realization of earthquake risk, expressed in its full and devastating horror. Before the 7.0 earthquake, there was earthquake potentiality. Afterward, there has been pain, loss and devastation, as the world continues to watch the situation unfold.

It has been heartening to see the global response, coming to the aid of Haiti. The World's hopes and wishes are with the people of Haiti and those providing relief. The Help for Haiti icon directs the reader to the White House site for Haiti Earthquake Relief.

The Fog of Concept (or the Concept of Fog)

Concepts, thoughts, and ideas are mental constructs. They are expressed in our environment in a myriad of ways. A concept evokes perceptions and aids internal processes in forward thinking risk assessment.

Two or more separate concepts may be associated with the same name. This can cause confusion if we are trying to draw an association with one particular concept. Disambiguation exists to solve this confusion. For example, the concept “orange” can refer to the fruit or to the color. Disambiguation would ask for clarification as to which was meant.

Concepts can have expression in the physical and mental spheres. An example is the concept of fog. The image I show was taken near Cayuse Pass, Mt Rainier National Park in the mid morning. Fog is a cloud at ground level. The temperature is sufficiently close to the dew point such that moisture has condensed into droplets impeding visibility.

The image shows little except fog and the road and the ghost of a motorcyclist. It gives the companion senses of risk, lack of visibility and the unknown.

On the other side of the mental/physical construct we have the mental fog -- a state of mental confusion or awareness. We are surrounded by too many options but cannot choose between them. They are too complicated, and the weighting of options present nearly equal risks and rewards that confound us. We are stuck going backwards and forwards. We have lost our sense of direction.

The motorcyclist in the image has made a conscious decision to continue into the (physical) fog. He will have used risk assessment to decide whether to continue into the fog based on experiences which are different than those of others. Thus we see that concepts are experienced in different ways by different people, with different outcomes.