tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14916102405016762892023-11-16T06:48:40.916-08:00Marilyn DunstanA Risk Blog: Risk Concepts and the ImageMarilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.comBlogger75125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-46165114559874178152015-09-01T07:19:00.002-07:002017-09-28T12:50:02.326-07:00Seattle - Tacoma International Airport - Self Organization<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFoUK0x4ZUxxSQYNbrZZBcdILvZHZl2ZCDMeQns1J-K5ha98fNPkpSkSQauD12o3_uxKG-AhA6Ecd99N4E6RqQyyJ7BRwsyjPEFBTgSdi6gdV-wM1kV9WE94TdRDCRTf7ZzFmPQl0tdAs/s1600/Dunstan_20110527_X5H0639FRARNDdroste3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="201" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiFoUK0x4ZUxxSQYNbrZZBcdILvZHZl2ZCDMeQns1J-K5ha98fNPkpSkSQauD12o3_uxKG-AhA6Ecd99N4E6RqQyyJ7BRwsyjPEFBTgSdi6gdV-wM1kV9WE94TdRDCRTf7ZzFmPQl0tdAs/s320/Dunstan_20110527_X5H0639FRARNDdroste3.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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I have addressed environmental issues, including climate change and those around the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, in a variety of blog articles. These are listed below.<br />
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Self organization and complexity are important structures in considering how advanced systems develop. The region around the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, among others, is a self organizing environment reflecting environmental factors in the area, including it's Carbon footprint.<br />
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Previous blog articles have discussed the environmental issues around the Seattle Tacoma International Airport. In <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/04/seattle-tacoma-international-airport.html" target="_blank">Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Environmental Issues</a><br />
I discuss an FAA study, <a href="http://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/policy_guidance/envir_policy/media/aeprimer.pdf" target="_blank">Aviation and Emissions, a Primer</a>. According to that study, about ten percent (10%) of aircraft emissions, except for carbon monoxide and hydrocarbons occur at ground level or during take off and landing. However, thirty percent (30%) of carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon emissions from aircraft occur during ground level emissions.<br />
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<a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/gcsebitesize/science/aqa_pre_2011/rocks/metalsrev2.shtml" target="_blank">Iron Oxide reacts with Carbon Monoxide</a>, at high temperatures, to produce Carbon Dioxide and Iron. Does this impact the levels of carbon dioxide in the vicinity of the Seattle Tacoma International Airport (and especially in low lying areas where there may be a pooling or sinking of Carbon Monoxide)? That is an interesting question, among others, in examining the distribution of the Carbon footprint in Washington State and other areas, and in what form Carbon might appear.<br />
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<b>marilyndunstan.blogspot.com</b><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/03/externalities-and-risk-seattle-tacoma.html" style="background-color: white; color: #1b1792; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.19px; line-height: 18.47px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Externalities and Risk - The Seattle-Tacoma International Airport</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/04/seattle-tacoma-international-airport.html" style="background-color: white; color: #1b1792; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.19px; line-height: 18.47px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Environmental Issues</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/04/seattle-tacoma-international-airport_91.html" style="background-color: white; color: #1b1792; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.19px; line-height: 18.47px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Pollution</a><br />
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/02/climate-change-and-carbon.html" style="color: #1b1792; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Climate Change and Carbon </a></div>
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2014/11/climate-change-and-global-health.html" style="color: #1b1792; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Climate Change and Global Health</a></div>
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2014_03_01_archive.html" style="color: #1b1792; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">World Health Organization Report on Air Pollution and Health</a></div>
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/04/seattle-tacoma-international-airport_19.html" style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 13.19px; line-height: 18.47px;" target="_blank">Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Medical Issues</a><br />
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Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-70102279796976295262015-08-19T23:57:00.002-07:002017-09-28T12:53:34.071-07:00Our Nuclear Future - Financial Risk and Externalities II<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Hanford Facility, Washington</div>
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In my last article on the nuclear issue, <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/08/our-nuclear-future-financial-risk-and.html" target="_blank">"Our Nuclear Future, Financial Risk and Externalities"</a>,</div>
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I discussed Rating Agency Capital Models in the context of nuclear risks such as those posed at Fukushima, Chernobyl and Three Mile Island.</div>
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The issue of managing the risks associated with both military and commercial nuclear applications is a vital one, that should interest all of us and speaks to the very concept of externalities and how to manage them in a global world. In this article I focus on commercial applications.</div>
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The Fukushima disaster was impacted by inadequate safeguards. The tsunami risk was not adequately taken into account in planning where to place the back up generators which could restore power in the event of an interruption of power. The back up generators were placed at point too near the sea wall protection that left them exposed to the tidal wave action of the large tsunami that hit off Fukushima on March 11, 2011, when an 8.9 magnitude earthquake was experienced. <br />
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How do we deal with the risk management issues concerning the financing, construction and operation of nuclear plants, and with the issue of managing nuclear waste from both military and civilian applications? These issues concern low probability, high risk events, issues that fall outside of the scope of normal everyday events. <br />
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The federal government offers nuclear power plants some degree of protection from liability. These limits on liability, which exist in order to encourage the construction and operation of nuclear plants for power generation purposes, do not do as thorough a job of mitigating risk as they should. This is because an external party, the federal government, is responsible for the oversight. In the case of Fukushima, where plants are constructed and operated across national boundaries, the issues become more complex.<br />
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The Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant was constructed and operated in Japan, by Fukushima General Electric (GE), Boise, and Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO). The components of the nuclear plant were provided by contractors such as GE,which provided six GE nuclear reactors. Other contractors were also involved. Multi-national resources were employed. Liability issues are very difficult to ascertain. It is very probable that the loss of the ability of the generators to provide power after interruption in service due to the tsunami materially impacted the fate of the nuclear material in those reactors and magnified the effect of the event.<br />
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Management of these issues across national boundaries presents a serious issue. How do you price for risk when governments put caps on liabilities? It is easier for companies to price for risk when the risk is limited! The incentive for commercial entities to manage risk is reduced when they do not have to absorb the risk of extreme events in either pricing of their products, mitigation of that risk, or the application of design elements to manage that risk. The risk is shifted to the governments.<br />
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When all else fails, due to the failure to put in place elements that will mitigate extreme risk, governments have to step in. At this point, governments must ascertain their own issues of financial accountability and debate among themselves. This issue is currently unfolding as nuclear radiation emerges from the Fukushima disaster and manifests itself in the ocean, carried by currents, and in the air, as was the case with the Chernobyl event.<br />
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Clearly, there must be a better match between potential liabilities and mitigation of risk. The problem occurs when it becomes financially unfeasible for companies to price for the risk of very low probability, high risk externalities. The government(s) must retain the capability to regulate. History has shown that government regulation is difficult in the face of corporate profits. This was shown in the history of seeking to regulate the ASARCO smelter.<br />
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Nuclear power plants do not arise ex nihilo. They must be financed, built, insured. How do you finance nuclear power plants? They can be built with government financing and the government can assume all the risk. In a commercial enterprise, across national boundaries, private parties can finance nuclear power plants if they have sufficient funds and can insure the risk of loss, either by commercial carriers, government support or by self insuring.<br />
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There are many financial instruments that may be available to finance nuclear power plants. In addition, nuclear power plants require real estate. A component of a nuclear power plant can conceivably be moved from one site to another, yet the ground below stays, and is subject to the risk of contamination.<br />
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It is instructive to look back at the history of Nuclear Power Plant generation in the Northwest. The situation with Washington Public Power Supply System Bonds is instructive (WPPSS). <a href="http://washington%20public%20power%20supply%20system/" target="_blank"> An article from HistoryLink.org</a> discusses this history of one of the largest bond defaults in history. Five WPPSS power plants were envisioned, and WPPSS power plant 2, the Columbia Generating Station, survives. The facility is now called Energy Northwest, and produces 12% of the power generated by the Bonneville Power Administration.<br />
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A great portion of the Northwest's power supply is generated by hydroelectric sources such as those operating along the Columbia River.<br />
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The discussion of financing nuclear power plants rests with a projection of bond default experience over time (default matrices), and how bond ratings emerge through Rating Agency models such as Standard and Poor's, Moody's and A.M. Best.<br />
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Clearly, the issue of using bonds to finance nuclear power plants is a critical one, in more than one way. WPPSS financing has provided an example of the risk of building nuclear plants, financing them, and having companies such as insurers and banks assume the risk of financing them.<br />
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Financial institutions take risks when they purchase company bonds. The construction and operational risks (there are separate bonds for construction and operation) are borne by those that purchase the bonds. Riskier enterprises are assigned a risk premium that is reflected in the interest rate offered on the bond. The riskier the enterprise, the higher the interest rate, and the longer it takes the enterprise to retire the bond. This is basic economics.<br />
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Given the history of WPPSS, it is difficult to construct a model for financing nuclear power plant construction. History has shown that even rating bonds for more ordinary applications, is fraught with risk. The financial events of 2008 have demonstrated to us how the domino effects of certain companies being taken down can bring a financial system to the brink. It is clear that certain financial institutions were allowed fail, while others were bailed out by the government. Insurer AIG, for example, was bailed out, while Washington Mutual was allowed to fail. This is a very interesting aspect to investigate, since Chase was left purchasing and holding the assets that Washington Mutual had accumulated over time.<br />
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The 2008 financial collapse is another blog article, however it is instructional in how bond defaults can bring down a financial system. Suffice it to say that mortgage backed securities, collateralized mortgage obligations, credit default swaps (CDS's) and collateralized debt obligations (CDO's) played a large role in this collapse. These issues reflected the financial arbitrage reflected in Rating Agency and regulatory agency capital analysis of financial institutions. The actions that the government took, in deciding which institutions to rescue and which institutions to allow to fail, helped determine the path that would be taken.<br />
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Rating Agencies played a large role in the events that unfolded. I have discussed Rating Agencies in previous articles.<br />
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Clearly, nuclear financing issues present complexities beyond those presented by other issues financed by our market system. There are limits to liability that impact the nuclear arena. We are left, then, with a cooperative issue impacting the ways in which governmental regulatory agencies can interject themselves into the system and regulate in a manner to mitigate low probability high impact risk. <br />
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This takes us again back to the past, and the issues attendant in regulating ASARCO Smelter Emissions and the problems that this issue presented.<br />
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These are the issues we face in these times of global warming and climate change, as we consider the risks and benefits of financing nuclear power plants. Alternative energy sources are discussed in my article <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/05/global-warming-and-climate-change-polar.html" target="_blank">"Global Warming and Climate Change - Polar Pioneer"</a> .<br />
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We must consider the issues of regulatory government as it is juxtaposed with issues concerning market operations, in dealing with situations that involve low probability, high risk events. It is clear that unfettered market operations may bring about market collapse through the interrelationships that exist within the structure of markets. It is also clear that government regulation that is not strong enough may not be able to counter the impact of market forces that overrun it, especially considering the profits that can be developed in certain markets. Furthermore, it is clear that government forces may act in a manner contradictory to public interest by choosing winners and loser, perhaps steered by an array of predefined values of certain groups.<br />
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Can we trust government? We must have checks and balances. Do we want government to only have one option, or to offer choices? I'm in favor of choices, as choices facilitate change, which is needed. Market research has shown that people can tolerate only so many choices; this has been in areas such as bottled peaches, cereal, etc. Would we ever want our choices in cereals and bottled peaches to govern our choices in power generation and other key areas? No, however the analogy is instructive.<br />
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We need a government strong enough to regulate; the problem in regulation, however, has shown that it is difficult for regulatory agencies to keep up with the profits that can be made from activities under investigation. This is certainly true in the financial arena where new instruments, especially those employing financial arbitrage, arise in order to present profit opportunities that defy regulation.<br />
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Constitutional issues such as due process and informed consent are bell weather issues in our financial and social system. The Justice Department has a long storied history in regulating monopoly. These are all important issues as we consider regulation of markets, intrusion of regulators/law enforcement into markets, and imposition of systems which defy Constitutional rights.<br />
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These issues all reflect ongoing issues of climate change and global warming and the effect of the environment on certain populations.<br />
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Our Constitutional rights are now under attack and must be defended, especially as regards issues of due process and informed consent. I have made a thorough examination of the social processes existing in our society today and find material flaws in social systems.<br />
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Social systems and the justice system as they currently exist need serious reforms to enforce the Constitutional rights that we hold so dear to us, as do imposed belief systems.<br />
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<b>marilyndunstan.blogspot.com</b><br />
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/08/our-nuclear-future-financial-risk-and.html" target="_blank">Our Nuclear Future - Financial Risk and Externalities</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/07/our-nuclear-future-hanford-and-nuclear.html" target="_blank">Our Nuclear Future - Hanford and Spent Nuclear Fuel</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/05/global-warming-and-climate-change-polar.html" style="background-color: white; color: #1b1792; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.19px; line-height: 18.47px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Global Warming and Climate Change - "Polar Pioneer" and Arctic Drilling</a>
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/07/externalities.html" style="color: #1b1792; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Externalities</a></div>
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/04/chernobyl-25th-anniversary.html" style="background-color: white; color: #1b1792; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.19px; line-height: 18.47px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Chernobyl 25th anniversary </a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/03/energy-choices-and-risk.html" style="background-color: white; color: #1b1792; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.19px; line-height: 18.47px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Energy Choices and Risk</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/05/global-warming-and-climate-change-polar.html" style="background-color: white; color: #1b1792; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.19px; line-height: 18.47px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Global Warming and Climate Change-Polar Pioneer</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/03/processing-risk-and-uncertainty.html" style="background-color: white; color: #1b1792; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.19px; line-height: 18.47px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Processing Risk and Uncertainty</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/03/log-in-surf-89-japan-earthquake.html" style="background-color: white; color: #1b1792; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.19px; line-height: 18.47px; text-decoration: none;" target="_blank">Log in the Surf - 8.9 Japan Earthquake (9.0 updated)</a><br />
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<b>History Link.org</b><br />
<a href="http://www.historylink.org/index.cfm?DisplayPage=output.cfm&File_Id=5482" target="_blank">Washington Public Power Supply System</a><br />
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Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-88315570149163332572015-08-07T19:08:00.007-07:002017-09-28T13:02:10.171-07:00Financial Rating Agencies and Risk - Liquidity<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU4FE10ZCj4VNylrnTdodjh8-YKhRNM8E7cJb30msY29Xpetk3K-bMq_PHZxmsc5IvOFWGMty9LFdcytAH3TT1iMVwKk34qVa-NkIxO2EwzVen6eSZtYsUDfGOYOIqqAU5fCg8RAPrG0g/s1600/Dunstan_20041210_weddellsea0050.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgU4FE10ZCj4VNylrnTdodjh8-YKhRNM8E7cJb30msY29Xpetk3K-bMq_PHZxmsc5IvOFWGMty9LFdcytAH3TT1iMVwKk34qVa-NkIxO2EwzVen6eSZtYsUDfGOYOIqqAU5fCg8RAPrG0g/s320/Dunstan_20041210_weddellsea0050.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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Iceberg, Weddell Sea, Antarctica</div>
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I took this photograph from the Icebreaker Kapitan Khlebnikov, as we transited the Weddell Sea from the Ice Shelf of Halley Bay to the Antarctic Peninsula. <a href="http://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/map/antarctica_map.htm" target="_blank">Antarctica (map)</a> is a land of beautiful desolation, and I was able to capture nature photographs depicting its stunning landscapes and the wildlife that inhabits it. Many countries have stations in Antarctica and I was honored to be able to visit two of them, Neumeyer (German) and Halley Bay (United Kingdom). </div>
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Icebergs have powerful symbolism, expressing concept in many different venues. In the maritime sense, they represent hidden risk, as ten percent of the iceberg may be visible, the remaining ninety percent of the iceberg underwater. The <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RMS_Titanic" target="_blank">Titanic</a> collided with an iceberg in the mid-Atlantic in 1912 and is an example of risk associated with transiting areas with icebergs. These powerful metaphors or concepts can also be expressed in other venues, including the financial arena, where risk exists and may be hidden, subject to the impact of financial bifurcation points. </div>
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Chaos theory discusses how financial risk, and bifurcation points can reflect hidden factors which sudden express what we term "Black Swan" risk events as typified by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_A._El-Erian" target="_blank">Mohamed A. El-Erian's</a> work.</div>
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In the financial arena, these risks reside in financial rating models. My June, 2015 article, <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/06/financial-rating-agencies-and-risk.html" target="_blank">Financial Rating Agencies and Risk</a><span id="goog_2099060126"></span><span id="goog_2099060127"></span><a href="https://www.blogger.com/"></a>, discusses Rating Agency models in the context of jet engines, which operate under a wide range of atmospheric conditions. Similarly, financial vehicles are tested under a wide range of scenarios, by various entities such as Rating Agencies and regulators in a wide variety of fields, including banking and insurance, under different legal constructs and governmental agencies.</div>
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As discussed in my article, <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/06/financial-rating-agencies-and-risk.html" target="_blank">Financial Rating Agencies and Risk</a>, different Rating Agencies, such as <a href="http://www.standardandpoors.com/en_US/web/guest/home" target="_blank">Standard and Poor's</a> and <a href="https://www.moodys.com/" target="_blank">Moody's</a> may reflect their analysis of risk in different ways. General Electric (GE) is used as an example in my blog article. which discussed Standard and Poor's maintenance of <a href="http://www.ge.com/investor-relations/fixed-income-investors" target="_blank">GE's rating</a> in the light of its decision to divest itself of real estate assets and exit its GE Capital Finance arm. Moody's, however, downgraded GE on its decision, indicating GE was favoring equity investors over creditors. These rating decisions reflect different decision processes by Rating Agencies, not explicit government agencies. However these Rating Agencies have considerable impact over the manner in which financial decisions are reflected in the marketplace.</div>
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Clearly, there is hidden information which Rating Agencies, and governmental entities, are aware of. When there is a relationship between Rating Agencies and financial entities, as in the payment of a fee in exchange for a rating service, there is an incentive for the Rating Agency to monitor the actions of the company, as money has changed hands, and participate in the decisions of the company involved.. At some point, however, the economic prospects of the company do not warrant the degree of risk assigned to it, and the Rating Agency may choose to exercise a number of financial tools in order to maintain its credibility in the financial marketplace as a reliable partner in assessing risk.</div>
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You see, the Rating Agency has two major clients; one, those purchasing its evaluations of companies, and another, two who pay for its services in order to exchange information, maintain a rating as to its financial soundness, and exchange information in order to do so. Government agencies are a different entity involved, and they sit and cast a watchful eye over the ability of Rating Agencies to remain impartial; they are also concerned as to the ability that Rating Agencies have to move the markets, and, especially, their ability to impact major market moves that could mask efforts at financial or other types of terrorism.</div>
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This is where the increased complexity of emerging financial instruments presents a risk for regulators as they seek to keep up with new financial structures and derivatives such as special purpose vehicles, credit default swaps (CDS) and collateralized debt obligations (CDO's). The <a href="http://www.treasury.gov/Pages/default.aspx" target="_blank">Treasury</a>, certainly, is interested in attack on the financial system.</div>
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A company does not exist in a vacuum; it exists within a financial structure of ever increasing complexity, reflecting not only national considerations, but a world economic milieu of globalization that impacts its decisions, as nations develop and industries expand, contract and relocate or adopt new methodologies such as outsourcing. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality" target="_blank">Externalities</a> are always a consideration, and this this issue is discussed in my blog article of the same name.</div>
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This brings us back to the iceberg and the hidden factors. GE presents an interesting case study as we look to parse the actions of Standard and Poor's and Moody's in their rating of GE. My blog article, <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/08/our-nuclear-future-financial-risk-and.html" target="_blank">Our Nuclear Future - Financial Risk and Externalities</a> briefly discusses the issue of the six nuclear plants designed by GE, which were part of the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_Nuclear_Power_Plant" target="_blank">Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Site's</a> design. The interesting question is the use of ratings in conjunction with the use of chaos theory and bifurcation points to bring down the economy and financial system.</div>
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There are specific provisions (options) in financial agreements that allow a company to take action in the case of certain events such as ratings downgrades. This puts a particular onus on Rating Agencies who have access to company information; it also presents a challenge to companies being rated as they seek to understand the processes which rating agencies use to rate their companies.</div>
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The interesting question in analyzing GE in the light of its departure from GE Capital, which finances GE engines, and from real estate, is its liquidity position and its exposure to risk from liquidity events in the light of the various risks that its operations faces.</div>
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Indeed, liquidity is an important consideration in analyzing a company's financial soundness. An example where liquidity events have taken down companies is General American Insurance, where exposure to risk from institutional investors brought down the company. General American had high exposure to funding agreements, which allowed policyholders to exercise a put option (withdraw funds without penalty) upon the adverse action of Rating Agencies. The construction of funding agreements involved mark to market issues and the use of put options in mutual funds (7 day put options). Moody's downgraded General American's insurance financial strength rating from A3 to Ba1 on August 9, 1999.</div>
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The interesting question with the actions of Standard and Poor's and Moody's with regards to GE is the divestiture of the GE Capital financing arm and the Real Estate assets; both of these events seem to reflect a move to better match projected assets and liabilities by increasing liquidity, potentially in the light of anticipated liabilities. These are the hidden, or unknown issues that confront regulators.</div>
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Why discuss GE? With issues of climate change and global warming, jet engines, which operate under a wide range of atmospheric conditions utilize various fuels for combustion under a wide degree of parameters representing different aspects of aviation usages, including private, commercial and government use. My blog article on the <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/05/global-warming-and-climate-change-polar.html" target="_blank">Polar Pioneer</a> discusses these issues in the light of exploration and drilling for petroleum products in the Arctic. The availability of fuel and the mode of combustion and types of engines employed will always be an important characteristic of any decision process as we analyze our future options.</div>
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Many people have contributed to the issues discussed in these blog articles and I express my appreciation to them and to their contributions.<br />
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Liquidity issues are important factors in assessing financial risk. They represent one category of risk among others that can reflect bifurcation points which can impact the economy. Organization structure is also important, as indicated by the Barings Bank issue where Nick Leeson was involved on both sides of the house, trading and operations. <br />
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<a href="http://www.alamy.com/lightbox/mylightbox.aspx?srch=foo%3dbar%26st%3d0%26pn%3d1%26ps%3d90%26sortby%3d2%26qt%3dpolar%2520pioneer%2520%26qt_raw%3dpolar%2520pioneer%2520%26qn%3dmarilyn%2520dunstan%26lic%3d3%26mr%3d0%26pr%3d0%26aoa%3d1%26creative%3d%26videos%3d%26nu%3d%26ccc%3d%26bespoke%3d%26apalib%3d%26ag%3d0%26hc%3d0%26et%3d0x000000000000000000000%26vp%3d0%26loc%3d0%26ot%3d0%26imgt%3d0%26dtfr%3d%26dtto%3d%26size%3d0xFF%26blackwhite%3d%26cutout%3d%26archive%3d1%26name%3d%26groupid%3d14827%26pseudoid%3d14827%26userid%3d%26id%3d%26a%3d%26xstx%3d0%26cbstore%3d1%26lightbox%3d%26resultview%3dsortbyPopular%26gname%3d%26gtype%3d%26apalic%3d%26news%3d1%26tbar%3d0%26pc%3d%26simid%3d%26cap%3d1%26customgeoip%3dUS%26cid%3d%26saveQry%3d%26editorial%3d1%26t%3d0%26edoptin%3d#/1/7/1/e2ac37a2-0e53-40c5-851d-4c7854cd8526" target="_blank">Alamy.com - Risk Lightbox</a><br /></div>
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<b>marilyndunstan.blogspot.com:</b></div>
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/06/financial-rating-agencies-and-risk.html" target="_blank">Financial Rating Agencies and Risk</a> </div>
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/07/externalities.html" target="_blank">Externalities</a></div>
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/05/global-warming-and-climate-change-polar.html" target="_blank">Polar Pioneer and Climate Change - "Polar Pioneer" and Arctic Drilling</a></div>
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<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kapitan_Khlebnikov_(icebreaker)" target="_blank">Kapitan Khlebnikov (Icebreaker)</a></div>
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<b>Wikipedia:</b></div>
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<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RMS_Titanic" target="_blank">Titanic</a></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #351c75; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.19px; line-height: 18.47px;"><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_Nuclear_Power_Plant" target="_blank"><span style="background-color: white; font-size: 13.19px; line-height: 18.47px;">Fukushima</span> Daiichi Nuclear Site</a></span></div>
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<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mohamed_A._El-Erian" target="_blank">Mohamed A. El-Erian</a></div>
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<b>Maps:</b></div>
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<a href="http://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/map/antarctica_map.htm" target="_blank">Antarctica Map -One World - Nations Online</a></div>
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<b>Rating Agencies:</b></div>
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<a href="http://www.standardandpoors.com/en_US/web/guest/home" target="_blank">Standard and Poor's</a></div>
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<b>General American Insurance:</b></div>
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<a href="http://insurance.mo.gov/news/genam/" target="_blank">General American News - Mississippi Department of Insurance</a><br />
<a href="http://www.standardandpoors.com/spf/upload/Ratings_EMEA/2013-06-13_WhatMayCauseInsuranceCompaniesToFail.pdf" target="_blank">Standard and Poor's- What May Cause Insurance Companies To Fail--And How ThisInfluences Our Criteria</a></div>
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<b>GE:</b></div>
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<a href="http://www.ge.com/investor-relations/fixed-income-investors" target="_blank">GE - Fixed Income Investing</a></div>
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Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-5898486904211611652015-08-04T07:29:00.004-07:002017-09-28T13:03:26.968-07:00Our Nuclear Future - Financial Risk and Externalities<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEEOd9ORXYR1WWVINKHroMdZVPDmhpsEIYwiDeCQ0mf2nRQhwqJGt9qKCZr3E9gNly6JhEfdmS5V26iy5qWWnVsKKrxK1wxiqMUSPLReCnpPA13nYCerdGaBIubZIeJ0cazcM007yQYIo/s1600/Dunstan_20110617_X5H6374.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgEEOd9ORXYR1WWVINKHroMdZVPDmhpsEIYwiDeCQ0mf2nRQhwqJGt9qKCZr3E9gNly6JhEfdmS5V26iy5qWWnVsKKrxK1wxiqMUSPLReCnpPA13nYCerdGaBIubZIeJ0cazcM007yQYIo/s320/Dunstan_20110617_X5H6374.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<b>Hanford Site, Washington</b></div>
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In my blog article, <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/07/our-nuclear-future-hanford-and-nuclear.html" target="_blank">Our Nuclear Future - Hanford and Spent Nuclear Fuel</a>, I discussed energy issues, focusing on risks associated with nuclear power plants. and including the risks associated with spent nuclear fuel.</div>
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Risks associated with oil drilling are discussed in my article about the Polar Pioneer, </div>
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/05/global-warming-and-climate-change-polar.html" target="_blank">Global Warming and Climate Change - "Polar Pioneer" and Arctic Drilling</a>. These risks increase as oil consumption and resources are impacted by <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil" target="_blank">peak oil</a> considerations.</div>
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Nuclear power plants also pose financial risk. I address this issue in my blog post,<br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/03/energy-choices-and-risk.html" target="_blank">Energy Choices and Risk</a>. This issue is a matter of continuing investigation as we look towards issues of financial risk management, and the costs imposed on society and individuals as discussed in my blog article <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/07/externalities.html" target="_blank">Externalties</a>.<br />
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In my blog article, <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/06/financial-rating-agencies-and-risk.html" target="_blank">Financial Rating Agencies and Risk</a>, I discussed Rating Agency Capital models, using a conceptual model of jet engines as an analogy. Fuel and energy are important components of growth and development, and the ability to test a jet engine for the proper mix of fuels that permit combustion under a wide range of situations provides a useful model to compare to the type of modeling required for financial stress testing. In that article, I discussed General Electric (GE)'s Ratings in light of its decision to exit its GE Capital finance arm and divest itself of real estate assets.<br />
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The actions of Rating Agencies Standard and Poor's and Moody's are interesting in light of the issues concerning Fukushima and the use of six GE nuclear reactors in the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_Nuclear_Power_Plant" target="_blank">Fukushima</a> Power Plant.<br />
<br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<b>marilyndunstan.blogspot.com</b><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/07/our-nuclear-future-hanford-and-nuclear.html" target="_blank">Our Nuclear Future - Hanford and Spent Nuclear Fuel</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/05/global-warming-and-climate-change-polar.html" target="_blank">Global Warming and Climate Change - "Polar Pioneer" and Arctic Drilling</a><br />
<div style="text-align: left;">
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/07/externalities.html" target="_blank">Externalities</a></div>
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/04/chernobyl-25th-anniversary.html" target="_blank">Chernobyl 25th anniversary </a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/03/energy-choices-and-risk.html" target="_blank">Energy Choices and Risk</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/05/global-warming-and-climate-change-polar.html" target="_blank">Global Warming and Climate Change-Polar Pioneer</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/03/processing-risk-and-uncertainty.html" target="_blank">Processing Risk and Uncertainty</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/03/log-in-surf-89-japan-earthquake.html" target="_blank">Log in the Surf - 8.9 Japan Earthquake (9.0 updated)</a><br />
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<b><a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/">marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com</a></b><br />
<br />
<br />
<b>Wikipedia:</b><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil" target="_blank">Peak Oil</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fukushima_Daiichi_Nuclear_Power_Plant" target="_blank">Fukushima</a><br />
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Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-73152029254049668382015-07-12T09:46:00.000-07:002017-09-28T13:06:38.311-07:00Israel and Akiva Tor<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_UaAXKkR6l0XR8qHm9ZdFS_znldVJyDNKapBY2m3Tq8ZNAcYSmMJOPw91b2NtiBD6QRldqGAtUFrpfyZG2X6evHjGVVWOnEfNM5OpAnuFWh0-mx8hu4SBI0CXxTpADfUR6s_Oj1K93Tc/s1600/Dunstan_20140927_X5H4281.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_UaAXKkR6l0XR8qHm9ZdFS_znldVJyDNKapBY2m3Tq8ZNAcYSmMJOPw91b2NtiBD6QRldqGAtUFrpfyZG2X6evHjGVVWOnEfNM5OpAnuFWh0-mx8hu4SBI0CXxTpADfUR6s_Oj1K93Tc/s400/Dunstan_20140927_X5H4281.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Potato Latkes with Apple Compote</div>
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I attended a talk given by Akiva Tor, Israeli Northwest Consul General, San Francisco Consulate, given November 3, 2010. It was very interesting to hear Mr. Tor speak regarding the very compelling issues in the Middle East. Mr Tor was very earnest in seeking to work with the American government to deal with common areas of interest. Mr Tor spoke regarding the necessity of maintaining Israel's national security and hoped to find a way to ease the emergent problems in the settlements.<br />
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Mr Tor is now Director for Special Projects, Israel Ministry of Foreign Affairs. An article in <a href="http://www.jweekly.com/article/full/65759/mission-accomplished-after-four-years-as-israeli-consul-general-akiva-tor-h/" target="_blank">JWeekly.com discusses his term as Northwest Consul General.</a> Mr Tor has an interesting background and his service has ranged from involvement in the community, to film screening sessions, to museum openings.<br />
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What interests me most about Mr Tor's stint as Northwest Consul General, is his involvement in aiding U.S. government interests in divesting in companies which do business with Iran. As the articles states, lawmakers had already passed a bill mandating that CalPERS and CalSTRS, (State Pension Funds) "divest from companies doing business with Iran. However, compliance and enforcement had been lax".<br />
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I find the issue of divestment very interesting and compelling. I understand well the fiduciary issues that confront plan sponsors. Indeed, fiduciary responsibility in pension funds is a compelling issue to many retirees. <br />
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This issue is very important in pension plans where the <a href="http://www.pbgc.gov/" target="_blank">Pension Benefit Guaranty Board (PBGC)</a> operates as a U.S. Government Agency. The Pension Benefit Guaranty Board Annual Report for 2014 depicts its operation. The PBGC provides coverage for private sector single employer and multi-employer plans.<br />
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Washington State's Pension Plans have had issues with <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kohlberg_Kravis_Roberts" target="_blank">KKR</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WAMU" target="_blank">WAMU</a>. according to this article in the <a href="http://www.seattletimes.com/business/statersquos-pension-plan-bets-big-on-private-equity/" target="_blank">Seattle Times</a>. Recently, <a href="http://www.pionline.com/article/20150629/ONLINE/150629861/kkr-pays-nearly-29-million-to-settle-charges-with-sec-over-broken-deal-fees" target="_blank">KKR settled fees with the SEC</a> that has impacted the Washington State pension system, as well as others. <br />
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Indeed, it is interesting to note the cascade which erupted from the chain of failures in 2008.<br />
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This takes us back to the issue of Mr Tor and divestment. For the individual investor who wishes to invest in stocks, the issue of what to invest in has particular meaning. Some products may be repugnant to certain investors and those investors may wish to avoid stocks or mutual funds that include them. This is called "social investing". This is becoming increasingly difficult in today's society when conglomerates operate to market many products, some of which a particular investor might find distasteful. <br />
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The issue of divestment as a financial tool is an interesting one in today's society worthy of additional study as the method of divestment is being used by more and more groups, generating more and more difficult problems of attribution. <br />
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In an increasingly complex society, many of these issues cross boundaries and become caught up in the intricate issues of global warming and climate change which confront nations across boundaries.<br />
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<a href="http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/09-15-pbgc.pdf" target="_blank">Congressional Budget Office - The Risk Exposure of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pension_Benefit_Guaranty_Corporation" target="_blank">Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation - Wikipedia</a><br />
<a href="http://www.seattletimes.com/business/statersquos-pension-plan-bets-big-on-private-equity/" target="_blank">Seattle Times - State's Pension Fund Bets Big on Private Equity</a><br />
<a href="http://www.pionline.com/article/20150629/ONLINE/150629861/kkr-pays-nearly-29-million-to-settle-charges-with-sec-over-broken-deal-fees" target="_blank">Pension and Investments - Settlement of Charges with SEC over Fees</a><br />
<a href="http://www.seattletimes.com/business/statersquos-pension-plan-bets-big-on-private-equity/" target="_blank">State's Pension Plan Bets Big on Private Equity - Seattle Times</a><br />
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Wikipedia:<br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kohlberg_Kravis_Roberts" target="_blank">KKR</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WAMU" target="_blank">Washington Mutual (WAMU)</a>Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-44836582973859255612015-07-11T10:46:00.000-07:002017-09-28T13:07:59.661-07:00Our Nuclear Future - Hanford and Spent Nuclear Fuel<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi52RT2PDoZ230fe7Y4oUivZK3vDU3TOJHcszy2cmas0UgjgQSQpAAlMUsV4yh1MUfQrmaluWiSb1lq-8XsNNw7jfqGDrsJ7K9Dd5llpbunOZoLZZwU29zI4eYSOo8F-bB8XsNCK_bD9ZI/s1600/Dunstan_20110617_X5H6374.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi52RT2PDoZ230fe7Y4oUivZK3vDU3TOJHcszy2cmas0UgjgQSQpAAlMUsV4yh1MUfQrmaluWiSb1lq-8XsNNw7jfqGDrsJ7K9Dd5llpbunOZoLZZwU29zI4eYSOo8F-bB8XsNCK_bD9ZI/s400/Dunstan_20110617_X5H6374.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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Hanford Site, Washington</div>
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This nation depends on nuclear energy for a great deal of it's power generation. Indeed, as we see the <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/05/global-warming-and-climate-change-polar.html" target="_blank">Polar Pioneer</a> take off for marginal Chukchi Sea, we note the difficulties faced by our declining resources and the issue of Peak Oil. <br />
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How can a world which depends on energy to operate gain power generation resources when there are so many demands, both by developed countries who have already built up a large demand for resources, and by developing nations, in areas such as Africa and Asia, where demands for energy resources will increase with industrialization and commercialization.<br />
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I have already discussed some of the issues posed by the Polar Pioneer in my recent <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/05/global-warming-and-climate-change-polar.html" target="_blank">blog article</a>. It is clear that there are many risks in oil drilling as we seek to drill at greater and greater depths, in locations where the risk is greater, such as the Chukchi Sea between Alaska and Russia, and engage in practices such as <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydraulic_fracturing" target="_blank">fracking</a> which present their own risks.<br />
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My previous blog article, <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/03/energy-choices-and-risk.html" target="_blank">"Energy Choices and Risk"</a>, following the Fukushima Disaster on 3/11/2011, discusses some of the emerging risks. Hydroelectric power is a major source of energy which meets much of the energy generation needs in the Pacific Northwest. Climate change and global warming impact the generation of hydroelectric power and water resources. Declining glaciers and mountain snow impact climate change and global warming through a positive feedback mechanism as the lower snow pack decreases the albedo through lower reflectivity in the mountain snow pack.<br />
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Alternative energy choices are increasingly being considered. These include biofuels, wind power and solar power. Can these alternative energy sources meet the bulk of our needs for energy consumption? They can help mitigate the demand for energy but cannot completely fill it. Would filling the planet's surface with <a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/gallery-image/Oregon-Images/G0000WkOqptVtcWg/I0000EVrypO7g3Rw/C0000fVOx55yJaI0" target="_blank">wind generators</a> disturb our meteorological balance? Would over use of solar panels mean that solar energy is diverted into household appliances rather than photosynthesis? To what extent can we generate energy without disturbing other entities within our environment, beyond a de minimus impact? We do not know the answers to many of these questions.<br />
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I have discussed issues of low probability, high impact risks in conjunction with Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima in my blog article "<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/03/energy-choices-and-risk.html" target="_blank">Energy Choices and Risk</a>".<br />
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While large scale accidents see significant press coverage (and they should), those who have studied, researched or worked in the nuclear industry have compelling stories about how exposures have impacted their lives in many ways. Many others, through occupational exposures not directly related to the nuclear industry may also have been impacted in many ways and to various degrees.<br />
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However, occupational exposure is not the whole story; many others, in various walks of life, have been exposed to radiation or other environmental risk in a number of ways. These individuals may include family members of those having occupational exposure, those living in down wind areas, those transiting through areas with exposure, and those who may be handling product that might have some radiological contamination, and many more. It is clear that those with non-occupational exposures must be cared for just as those with occupational exposures are cared for. The impact of radiation on the populace is an externality issue.<br />
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Radiation released into the atmosphere is carried downwind; radiation released into water is carried with the currents. Radiation released into materials is carried with those materials. Radiation will follow its decay path, which varies with the radionuclide. One may consider bananas, which are high in potassium, and carry the naturally radioactive element Potassium 40 at low levels. Every time we carry bananas from the store to our home we carry some (low level) amount of radioactivity with us. Believe it or not, radiation from bananas is expressed as a "<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_equivalent_dose" target="_blank">banana equivalent dose</a>", about 0.1 micro-sievert, at least on Wikipedia. <br />
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The impact of exposure to <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiation" target="_blank">radiation</a> is a serious one involving physiological and psychological issues.<br />
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Dr Yuri Yablokov's work, "Consequences of the Catastophe for People and the Environment" is an extensive body of work by the Russian Scientist who reported to Mikhail Gorbachev. Dr Yablokov has provided probably the most complete body of work relating to the impact of Chernobyl on people and on the environment.<br />
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The <a href="http://majuro.usembassy.gov/legacy.html" target="_blank">Marshall Islands</a> is but one example of an area where nuclear testing has impacted residents. Sixty years later there are still impacts as indicated by this article in <a href="http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/02/bikini-atoll-nuclear-test-60-years" target="_blank">The Guardian</a>.<br />
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Nevada and New Mexico have a history of atomic testing where test sites and downwind areas have been impacted.. My article on the site of the first atomic test, the initial <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2014/10/trinity-nuclear-test.html" target="_blank">Trinity</a> nuclear test in New Mexico, discusses these issues. <br />
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There are a garden variety of risks along a risk spectrum surrounding the use of nuclear energy. <a href="http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/indianpoint/files/NRDC-1336_Indian_Point_FSr8medium.pdf" target="_blank"> Risk studies</a> for the I<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Point_Energy_Center" target="_blank">ndian Point Reactor</a> at Buchanan, New York, consider a variety of factors: This study takes into account information from the Chernobyl and Fukushima events.<br />
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Wikipedia lists <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Point_Energy_Center" target="_blank">some incidents</a> at Indian Point Reactor. To what degree have radiation incidents at Indian Point impacted the surrounding industries and the neighboring communities? To what extent was a gypsum plant just south of the Indian Point Reactor exposed by incidents at Indian Point? This is a matter for further investigation. Gypsum is used in many applications, including in wallboard. Could radioactivity could have traveled from a point of origin in Buchanan, New York, via trucks, trains, vessels or aircraft to residential and commercials interiors: bedroom, kitchen and bathroom walls all over the world? Can we know the answer to these questions? Certainly we would need to answer these questions in assessing future risks where industrial and other activities are carried about in areas contiguous to nuclear facilities.<br />
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According to the Indian Point Report: "Also note that these calculations were performed for a hypothetical accident at only one of Indian Point’s two operating reactors, and the accident scenarios did not involve radiation release from the spent fuel pools, unlike for Fukushima, which was a multi-unit accident with damage to spent nuclear fuel storage. " states one section of the document.<br />
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A continuing issue is the handling of spent nuclear fuel. This is an increasing issue as the amount of spent nuclear fuel, especially that containing plutonium, increases. <br />
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A <a href="http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/plutonium-fuel-could-be-used-at-hanford-power-plant/" target="_blank">March 18, 2011, article</a> in the Seattle Times discusses the use of MOX plutonium fuel at Hanford.<br />
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Nuclear waste may be stored, for example at Tank Farms, for example, at <a href="http://www.hanford.gov/page.cfm/TankFarms" target="_blank">Hanford Tank Farms</a>, or in <a href="http://www.nrc.gov/waste/spent-fuel-storage/dry-cask-storage.html" target="_blank">Dry Cask Storage</a> or at deep geological repositories such as the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waste_Isolation_Pilot_Plant" target="_blank">Carlsbad Waste Isolation Storage Plant</a> in New Mexico. <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yucca_Mountain_nuclear_waste_repository" target="_blank">Yucca Mountain</a> was designated as a deep geological depository for the storage of high level nuclear waste and spent nuclear fuel.<br />
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Nuclear waste can be processed in various ways, for example via vitrification at the <a href="http://www.hanfordvitplant.com/history-project" target="_blank">Vitrification Plant at Hanford</a> and potentially transported elsewhere for long term storage. The storage and processing of spent nuclear fuel has thus been the subject of extensive debate. Many of these storage methods involve keeping the isotopes in their original processed state, so that many long lived isotopes are stored in what is an accumulating storage of spent nuclear fuel.<br />
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Nuclear fuel can also be processed in a reactor. This processing allows for isotopes with higher levels of radioactivity, to be processed down their decay chain, reducing the level of radioactivity while producing power, and thus reducing the level of radioactivity in the spent fuel that has to be stored. This methodology, which is referred to in the March 18, 2011 article in the Seattle Times, has its own risks. Risks include the risk of nuclear accident while reprocessing the fuel, escape of containment and risks involved in transporting the nuclear spent fuel from the sites at which it is being processed to the sites where it is reprocessed (Hanford Power Plant).<br />
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These risks include many of the same issues discussed above regarding the Indian Point plant. There are longer terms risks as well, which involve how to use the potential energy stored in the radionuclide's decay chain; whether it should be used immediately to generate power or whether it should be put back in the ground to be available for later use, or whether there is some planetary need relating to global warming and climate change that should dictate its usage. That is a matter of continuing discussion. There is a considerable continuum of risk involved in studying this issue of nuclear waste. <br />
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Dr Yablokov's work on Chernobyl illustrates this risk in a very powerful way. Many areas could potentially be impacted, including the Palouse of Washington, the Seattle Area, and the Washington and Oregon Coasts.<br />
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I heard Dr Yablokov speak on "Chernobyl 25 Years Later: Lessons Learned" on March 28, 2011 at the University of Washington, at Kane Hall about his experiences dealing with that nuclear disaster. It was quite an experience.<br />
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Nuclear power plants also pose financial risk. I address this issue in my blog post,<br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/03/energy-choices-and-risk.html" target="_blank">Energy Choices and Risk</a>. This issue is a matter of continuing investigation as we look towards issues of financial risk management, and the cost of externalities as imposed on society and individuals.<br />
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<b><a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/">marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com</a></b><br />
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/gallery/Hanford/G0000gLENVNHWllo/C0000Po6Wv9tx2Ec" target="_blank">Hanford </a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/gallery-collection/The-Palouse-of-Eastern-Washington/C0000p9Z4JwdHfGU" target="_blank">Palouse</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/gallery-collection/Seattle-Collection/C0000vhqZRR94f4Y" target="_blank">Seattle</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/gallery/Washington-Coast/G0000zmKkg9mRZ1U/C0000p8hExj2xTIw" target="_blank">Washington Coast</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/gallery/Oregon-Coast/G0000JGCkYXpkjJU/C0000fVOx55yJaI0" target="_blank">Oregon Coast</a><br />
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<a href="http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/plutonium-fuel-could-be-used-at-hanford-power-plant/" target="_blank">Hanford - Use of Plutonium Fuel</a><br />
<a href="http://www.nrdc.org/nuclear/indianpoint/files/NRDC-1336_Indian_Point_FSr8medium.pdf" target="_blank">Indian Point Energy Plant</a><br />
<a href="http://majuro.usembassy.gov/legacy.html" target="_blank">Marshall Islands Nuclear Testing Legacy</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chernobyl:_Consequences_of_the_Catastrophe_for_People_and_the_Environment" target="_blank">Consequences of the Catastrophe for People and the Environment</a> - Dr Yablokov<br />
<a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2001/09/07/nyregion/con-edison-sells-indian-point-2-its-last-major-electricity-plant.html" target="_blank">Seattle Times - Plutonium Fuel Could be Used at Hanford Power Plant</a><br />
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<b>Wikipedia:</b><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Indian_Point_Energy_Center" target="_blank">Indian Point Energy Center</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radiation" target="_blank">Radiation</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydraulic_fracturing" target="_blank">Hydraulic Fracturing</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_equivalent_dose" target="_blank">Banana Equivalent Dose</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waste_Isolation_Pilot_Plant" target="_blank">Carlsbad Waste Isolation Storage Plant</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yucca_Mountain_nuclear_waste_repository" target="_blank">Yucca Mountain Nuclear Waste Depository</a><br />
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<b>marilyndunstan.blogspot.com</b><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/07/externalities.html" target="_blank">Externalities</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/04/chernobyl-25th-anniversary.html" target="_blank">Chernobyl 25th anniversary </a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/03/energy-choices-and-risk.html" target="_blank">Energy Choices and Risk</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/05/global-warming-and-climate-change-polar.html" target="_blank">Global Warming and Climate Change-Polar Pioneer</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/03/processing-risk-and-uncertainty.html" target="_blank">Processing Risk and Uncertainty</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/03/log-in-surf-89-japan-earthquake.html" target="_blank">Log in the Surf - 8.9 Japan Earthquake (9.0 updated)</a><br />
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<a href="http://www.nrc.gov/waste/spent-fuel-storage/dry-cask-storage.html" target="_blank">Nuclear Regulatory Commission - Dry Cask Storage</a><br />
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<br />Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-50778607387188743622015-06-22T12:14:00.001-07:002017-09-28T13:12:15.973-07:00Financial Rating Agencies and Risk<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Pratt and Whitney J-58 Engine, Lockheed SR-71 Blackbird,</div>
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Museum of Flight, Seattle, Washington</div>
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How will a recent settlement of a <a href="http://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/justice-department-and-state-partners-secure-1375-billion-settlement-sp-defrauding-investors" target="_blank">Justice Department suit</a> against <a href="http://www.standardandpoors.com/en_US/web/guest/home" target="_blank">Standard & Poor's</a> Rating Agency impact the Rating Agency's assessment of companies that it rates? With many companies having calendar year financial year ends, this is an emerging question as the various Rating Agencies reviews ratings.<br />
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The Justice Department is <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/02/01/us-moody-s-investigation-idUSKBN0L51T820150201" target="_blank">investigating</a> <a href="https://www.moodys.com/" target="_blank">Moody's</a> Rating Service. The Moody's and Standard and Poor's suits are related to fraud in mortgage backed securities. Mortgage backed securities experience contributed significantly to the financial crisis of 2008. The U.S. Justice Department worked with State Agencies in filing the suits.<br />
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A recent example of the impact of credit ratings is shown by Standard & Poor's <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-downgrades-ge-debt-after-news-to-exit-ge-capital-buy-back-50-bln-of-shares-2015-04-10" target="_blank">affirmation</a> of <a href="http://www.ge.com/" target="_blank">General Electric's</a> Credit Rating at AA+ in the wake of its earlier announcement to exit its <a href="http://www.gecapital.com/en/" target="_blank">GE Capital</a> Finance arm and divest itself of real estate assets, as reported in <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/general-electrics-credit-rating-affirmed-at-sp-2015-04-10" target="_blank">Marketwatch</a>.<br />
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Meanwhile, <a href="https://www.moodys.com/" target="_blank">Moody's</a> Investor Service<a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/moodys-downgrades-ge-debt-after-news-to-exit-ge-capital-buy-back-50-bln-of-shares-2015-04-10" target="_blank"> downgraded GE</a> on that decision, concerned about favoring equity investors over creditors. GE Capital has a history of aviation financing, as well as an interest in the future of aviation, as in <a href="http://www.gereports.com/post/121912414320/hold-on-to-your-seats-nasa-breathes-new-life-into" target="_blank">supersonic flight</a>.<br />
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It is interesting to note the responses of the two Rating Agencies in this particular case, in the light of Justice Department investigations and emerging circumstances in the financial markets. What does the future hold in store?<br />
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In addition to the financial circumstances surrounding GE, and in particular, GE Capital, it is interesting to consider that jet engines might serve as a useful metaphor for emerging issues in the financial sector, and for Rating Agencies in particular.<br />
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A number of years have passed since the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007%E2%80%9308" target="_blank">financial crisis of 2008</a>. In a <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/08/standard-and-poors-downgrade-of-united.html" target="_blank">previous blog article</a> on August 22, 2011, I discussed the downgrade of United States Long Term Sovereign Credit from AAA to AA+. In this article I discuss some of the issues involving Rating Agency and other capital models.<br />
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Capital models are complex analytic models designed to measure the soundness of institutions. The U.S. Justice Department has been evaluating a number of rating agencies to assess their impact on the financial markets and their adequacy in measuring company risk.<br />
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Generally, capital models look at total capital available and compare it a risk based capital measurement. The risk based capital measurement is a formula based on the risks a company assumes in its various lines of business, assigning weighting capital factors to measure important items such as asset risk, insurance risk, asset liability/matching risk, business risk and other factors. These types of measurements vary considerably between different types of business. Depending on the use of the capital model, the structure of the model and the types of metrics used, the factors, and the analysis will differ considerably from institution to institution.<br />
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Rating Agencies serve to provide information to investors that help them decide whether to invest in a company. Thus the analysis of a rating agency focuses on issues of financial soundness, potential for growth, and a wide variety of issues that are of interest to potential investors, in both debt and equity securities. Rating Agencies include such agencies as Standard & Poor's, Moody's, <a href="http://www.ambest.com/home/default.aspx" target="_blank">A.M. Best</a> and <a href="https://www.fitchratings.com/" target="_blank">Fitch</a>. <br />
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Rating Agencies perform valuations of companies. Rating Agencies will provide a rating for a company based on data readily available through public sources. However, in order to have a comprehensive financial evaluation, Rating Agencies typically require a fee to be paid which will enable the company under valuation to interact with the Rating Agency, allowing it greater access to information obtained by the Rating Agency and more sharing of information.<br />
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Rating Agency models will differ from models used by regulators to assess financial soundness. For example, state insurance commissioners who regulate financial soundness of insurance companies will also model risk based capital. Their analysis, however, is focused more on solvency issues than indicators of growth to potential future investors. This is because state guarantee funds, which insurers pay into, are regulated by the states. State guarantee funds provide some funds according to regulation to certain classes of policyholders in the event of insolvency. The downside risks and upside benefits are different for regulators versus the various classes of investors interested in a company.<br />
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Because the focus of capital models vary widely according to the use for which they are intended, they tend to produce different types of results. Regulatory models might be established through cooperation between certain government or quasi-government-private bodies that seek to promote some degree of uniformity (.e.g. the National Association of Insurance Commissioners - NAIC). <br />
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Private Rating Agency models by such major players in the system such as Standard & Poor's, Moody's, A.M. Best and Fitch will vary because each of these rating agencies are seeking to gain business by rating companies and each has developed its own model. This is called competition. Thus when a company is evaluated by rating agencies, their rating may vary between different rating agencies. This is because different rating agencies will weight various activities differently than others.<br />
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Rating agencies have a considerable amount of power to impact the way in which a company is viewed in the marketplace. The specific metrics and factors used by a rating agency to judge a company may impact whether a company gains or loses business and may influence a company's decisions. An action by a rating agency to downgrade a company may result in the company losing a considerable amount of business, and even cascade that company to failure. <br />
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There is a certain psychology at work in companies dealing with rating agencies. Because companies have an opportunity to gain a more favorable rating by interacting with a rating company if they pay a fee to have a more comprehensive analysis, the two entities are now bound by some sort of cooperative relationship (symbiosis) whereby it is in the interest of the rating agency to keep getting the fee. The rating agency, however,to ensure its credibility, needs to report adverse conditions that may lead to failure of the rated company at some point. Thus the rating agency is on the horns of a dilemma, whereby it must at some point act to ensure the credibility of its ratings.<br />
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However Rating Agency models are just that, models, and models may not take into account all the protective factors that companies use to ensure continued operation. Rating Agency models reflect the biases of those who engineered them and may reflect psychological factors such as confirmation bias and cognitive dissonance.<br />
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The ability of a Rating Agency to cascade a company downhill towards failure, into the hands of investors ready to swoop it up at bargain prices, may hinge on the use of specific metrics and factors which are keyed towards certain predetermined models or results.<br />
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A Rating Agency model, like the companies it rates, are very complex models. Perhaps a jet engine is a suitable metaphor, in terms of complexity, in considering how such models operate in an ever complex world where problems such as climate change and global warming loom ever larger. My recent blog articles on the <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/05/global-warming-and-climate-change-polar.html" target="_blank">Polar Pioneer</a> and <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/04/seattle-tacoma-international-airport.html" target="_blank">Seattle-Tacoma International Airport</a> discuss some of these issues which may impact aviation.<br />
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A jet engine such as the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pratt_%26_Whitney_J58" target="_blank">Pratt and Whitney J-58 engine</a>, operating in conjunction with the titanium-skinned aircraft itself, a <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_SR-71_Blackbird" target="_blank">SR-71 Blackbird</a>, needs to be able to operate in a range of atmospheric conditions reflecting different atmospheric pressures, levels of oxygen and carbon dioxide, and under various heat constraints and mechanical stresses. The pilot's own physiological and psychological stressors are of paramount importance in such an environment, which includes exposure to a variety of environmental hazards, in various feedback modes.<br />
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It is in this context that we consider Rating Agency models not simply as a static model based on year end performance or occasional interaction with companies they rate but also a dynamic model that must take into account many complex factors and interactions in an environment where physiological and psychological stress tests, as experienced by test pilots, operating in a real environment may be the most dangerous elements, especially when so many unknown factors must be taken into account.<br />
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Many companies perform complex modeling analyses to stress test their operations under a range of potential situations. The question is how Rating Agency models reflect the balance of risks and who, in this complex society is actually directing the emergence of results.<br />
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These are all very significant issues as we live in an interconnected society, perched on a bifurcation point of climate change and global warming, that has impacts on many sectors of the society, and, in fact the planet. Externalities and systemic risk are major factors in our ever changing society as we address issues that go beyond individuals, corporations and governments.<br />
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Fuel and energy sources are important factors in a global economy, issues that affect many on a personal scale, in many ways that many not suspect, due to their ever increasing complexity. Rating Agencies, and their impact on society are but one of a number of factors influencing the outcomes of these very important issues as we tackle these significant problems.<br />
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<br />Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-29420748931783692632015-06-07T11:49:00.000-07:002015-06-07T12:01:30.146-07:00Senescence<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Gingko Biloba Tree</div>
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Senescence is the process of growing old, or aging. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senescence" target="_blank">Senescence</a> can refer to a process that occurs on many different levels, from cellular levels, to the whole body level, to higher organizational levels and including physical and psychological structures. <br />
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Aging occurs at different rates and different times in different life forms. Senescence is directly or indirectly a major cause of death. Senescence may reflect underlying biological processes, mediated by gene expression, can reflect programmed cell death and can be accelerated by environmental factors, such as exposure to radiation.<br />
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My 2014 <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2014/08/the-ginko-biloba-tree-ginkgo-leaf.html" target="_blank">blog article</a> discusses senescence in the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ginkgo_biloba" target="_blank">Gingko Biloba Tree</a>, a living fossil dating back to the Permian era (270 million years ago), which exhibits clonal reproduction. Natural leaf senescence in the Gingko Biloba <a href="http://journal.ashspublications.org/content/137/5/349.full.pdf" target="_blank">has been researched</a> in male and female trees, with regards to impacts of reactive species and anti-oxidants on the rates of senescence.<br />
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Senescene on a cellular level, expressed as replicative senescence, reflects a cell's attainment of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayflick_limit" target="_blank">Hayflick limit</a>. The Hayflick limit refers to a limit on the shortening of DNA <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telomere" target="_blank">telomeres</a>, which cap the ends of the DNA strands. As the cell divides, it loses telomeres in the division process. The Hayflick limit reflects the end of the telomere line, at which point the cell becomes senescent. Senescence is accelerated by exposure to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reactive_oxygen_species" target="_blank">reactive oxygen species</a>, exposure to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oncogene" target="_blank">oncogenes</a>, and to cell to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cell_fusion" target="_blank">cell fusion</a>, a process where cells join to form what is callled a '<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syncytium" target="_blank">syncytium'</a>. I discuss a number of the processes that may encourage the early development of senescence in other blog articles, listed below.<br />
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Exposure to radiation generates reactive species. This can include anything from high energy <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ionizing_radiation" target="_blank">ionizing radiation</a> which liberates electrons from atoms and molecules, to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-ionizing_radiation" target="_blank">non-ionizing radiation</a>. Ionizing radiation may include <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmic_ray" target="_blank">cosmic</a> and<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamma_ray" target="_blank"> gamma rays</a> and some ultraviolet wavelengths. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_storm" target="_blank">Geomagnetic storms</a> may result in increased exposure to high energy particles, as would exposure to nuclear radiation.<br />
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Non-ionizing radiation includes radar microwaves and those <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/15197754" target="_blank">used by cell phones</a>, which can disturb <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lymphocyte" target="_blank">lymphocytes</a> in rats. Some ultraviolet wavelengths including UVA, UVB and UVC are non-ionizing. Disturbances in the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_layer" target="_blank">Ozone layer</a> result in increased ultraviolet exposure, with the Antarctic having historically greater ozone depletion than the Arctic. <br />
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Reactive species can be produced through natural bodily process, in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxidative_phosphorylation" target="_blank">Oxidative Phosphorylation</a> (OXPHOS), in the production of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adenosine_triphosphate" target="_blank">Adenosine Triphosphate (ATP)</a> through mitochondrial processes. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metabolic_theory_of_ecology" target="_blank">The Metabolic Theory of ecology</a> deals with these issues. It reflects <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kleiber%27s_law" target="_blank">Kleiber's Law</a> which relates metabolism to body weight . I discuss these issues in my blog on "<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2014/10/the-odd-couple-mitochondria-and-cell.html" target="_blank">The Odd Couple - The Mitochondria and the Cell Nucleus</a>", where cellular processes are both exposed to and create oxygen radicals. This article also discusses other sources of reactive species, including pollutants, chemicals and toxins. <br />
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Exposure to oncogenes can also lead to senescense. Oncogenes can arise from a variety of sources, including potentially <a href="http://www.nature.com/onc/journal/v23/n6/full/1207242a.html" target="_blank">avian sources</a> which operate within our body's innate and adaptive immune system transcription factors.<br />
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Induction of cell-cell fusion, as occurs in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Syncytium" target="_blank">syncytium</a>, can also lead to senescence. Syncytium can form in protists such as rhizarians, in fungi, in <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3467959/" target="_blank">heart muscle</a> and skeletal muscle, and, importantly, in the<a href="http://genesdev.cshlp.org/content/27/21/2356.long" target="_blank"> placenta</a> where they take on a meaning relating to group immunity systems, as discussed in my <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2014/09/book-review-group-immunity-systems.html" target="_blank">blog article</a>. The heart is a critical organ in the human body and tests such as the <a href="http://my.clevelandclinic.org/services/heart/diagnostics-testing/radiographic-tests/cardiac-mri-adenosine-stress-test" target="_blank">Cardiac MRI Adenosine Stress Test</a> (using a gadolinium contrast agent) tests the ability of the heart to act "in sync".<br />
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<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adenosine" target="_blank"> Adenosine</a> is an important nucleoside which modulates a variety of important physiological processes, including heart activity, and as an important moderator of the sleep-wakefulness cycle. Caffeine is an antagonist of adenosine receptors in the brain. The action of Adenosine is also impacted by theophylline (found in tea) and theobromine (found in chocolate). Adenosine is an inhibitor of the central nervous system and relaxes the heart muscle. Adenosine also increases hair thickness. The modulation of adenosine may be related to senescence. <br />
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Organismal senescence is a decline in the ability of the organism to respond to stress, and an increase in various symptoms characteristic of aging, including a decline in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeostasis" target="_blank">homeostasis</a>, the ability of the body to respond to various cues. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homeostasis%20and%20Alzheimer's.%20http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alzheimer%27s_disease" target="_blank">Alzheimer's Disease</a> is one condition which may be associated with senescence, and may relate to various environmental factors as discussed in my <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2014/11/president-ronald-reagan-and-alzheimers.html" target="_blank">blog article</a>.<br />
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Senescence can be mitigated through increased exposure to anti-oxidants, which can be obtained through certain foods (e.g. blueberries are a food <a href="http://www.webmd.com/food-recipes/20-common-foods-most-antioxidants" target="_blank">high in anti-oxidants</a>), and internally through transcription factors such as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superoxide_dismutase" target="_blank">superoxide dismutase</a>.<br />
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Senescence may be impacted by a variety of processes germane to environmental issues relating to climate change and global warming, including natural processes and anthropogenic forcing (originating in human activity). These processes may all impact factors germane to reactive oxygen species and anti-oxidants.<br />
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Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-41835383448221795652015-05-31T11:49:00.001-07:002017-09-28T13:13:52.050-07:00Bacillus Anthracis Issues<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikIhJfCR9EuQ_diVgzzwMqfjimEYEVBW_uUKLGGjtFn_vJejRJd1QsmYt4WRz_LCv9M_4nFA4IMGRdQzXFN4Z2rz8tZBSVPS1hmLW7rA8987Lp45bWn-9NZ1xjYuxeIhfRWotQ8fy_IJI/s1600/Dunstan_20110527_X5H0639FRARNDdroste3.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="251" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEikIhJfCR9EuQ_diVgzzwMqfjimEYEVBW_uUKLGGjtFn_vJejRJd1QsmYt4WRz_LCv9M_4nFA4IMGRdQzXFN4Z2rz8tZBSVPS1hmLW7rA8987Lp45bWn-9NZ1xjYuxeIhfRWotQ8fy_IJI/s400/Dunstan_20110527_X5H0639FRARNDdroste3.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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The CDC is <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2015/s0529-anthrax-shipment.html" target="_blank">investigating</a> an unintentional release of <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/anthrax/" target="_blank">anthrax</a> from the Department of Defense (DOD) to multiple labs in multiple states. An <a href="http://www.voanews.com/content/us-defense-chief-pentagon-to-find-those-responsible-for-anthrax-shipment/2802068.html" target="_blank">article</a> from Voice of America indicates 24 labs in 11 states and 2 countries (South Korea and Australia) have received "suspect samples" of concern.<br />
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Anthrax has quite a <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/anthrax/history/index.html" target="_blank">history</a>, both in its naturally occuring state and as a biological weapon, as documented by the Center for Disease Control (<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/" target="_blank">CDC</a>). There have been a number of anthrax "releases" over time, Recently, in 2014 there was a <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2014/p0711-lab-safety.html" target="_blank">release</a> at CDC's Roybal Campus . The year 2001 saw a <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/24-7/ProtectingPeople/anthrax/index.html" target="_blank">wave of anthrax attacks</a>. A CDC review discusses the 2001 attacks in <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/niosh/nas/RDRP/appendices/chapter6/a6-45.pdf" target="_blank">some detail</a> as well as <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/niosh/nas/RDRP/appendices/chapter6/a6-45.pdf" target="_blank">discussing</a> epidemiological findings. and provides a<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/anthrax/history/index.html" target="_blank"> history of anthrax</a>., both in a naturally occurring state and as a biological weapon.<br />
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One interesting development has been the appearance of <a href="http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/20/2/12-0921_article" target="_blank">bacillus anthracis in heroin</a> used by <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3523299/" target="_blank">European drug users.</a> The strain involved originated in Turkey, raising a question as to how bacillus anthracis would get into the heroin supply.<br />
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The CDC provides <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/anthrax/basics/index.html" target="_blank">basic information</a> on Bacillus Anthracis. The bacteria Bacillus Anthracis exists in a dormant, sporulated state in nature, can enter the body by a variety of routes (e.g. cutaneous or inhalation pathways), become activated, spread throughout the body, multiply and produce toxins.<br />
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These incidents all represent an interesting pattern in the release of bacillus anthracis into the biosphere, taking into consideration emerging environmental issues regarding climate change. The question is to what extent the environment adapts or reacts to environmental challenges thrown its way.<br />
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As this <a href="http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/20/2/13-0021_article" target="_blank">CDC case investigation</a> indicates, it is difficult to investigate individual cases of anthrax when they occur. Human cases of anthrax are rare, despite the fact that Bacillus Anthracis can be found naturally in the soil and commonly infects <a href="https://www.avma.org/KB/Resources/FAQs/Pages/Anthrax-FAQs.aspx" target="_blank">domestic and wild animals</a> throughout the world. There may be a number of reasons for this apparent paradox, which is under investigation.<br />
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My blog article <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2014/10/panspermia-and-evolution.html" target="_blank">"Panspermia and Evolution"</a> discusses Bacillus Anthracis and the distribution of life in the context of extreme environments. These are the types of situations involving low probability, high impact events.<br />
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Bacillus Anthracis is mentioned in a few of my blog articles, <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2014/11/evolution-of-adaptive-immunity.html" target="_blank">"Evolution of Adaptive Immunity"</a> and in an article on <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2014/11/ebola.html" target="_blank">"Ebola"</a>.<br />
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Bacillus Anthracis <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK7699/" target="_blank">needs oxygen</a> in order to sporulate.. This is a very interesting characteristic that may provide clues to it's activity, especially in the human body. Iron is a key element in the human body, intimately associated with a number of metabolic processes, including its role in hemoglobin and the delivery of oxygen throughout the body.<br />
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Indeed, Bacillus Anthracis <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3294808/" target="_blank">uptakes iron</a> when exposed to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxidative_stress" target="_blank">superoxide stress</a>. <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20621133" target="_blank">Bacillus anthracis experiences rapid sporulation</a> in a high iron, glucose free environment. Apparently, Bacillus Anthracis may operate as a signaling mechanism triggering iron accumulation when exposed to environmental stresses, impacting the iron catalyst of the <a href="http://goldbook.iupac.org/FT06786.html" target="_blank">Fenton reaction</a>. <br />
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<a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2934628/" target="_blank">Transferrin blocks growth</a> of Bacillus Anthracis via iron deprivation, an effect that is differentially expressed in cutaneous anthrax vs inhalational anthrax. This difference, in the latter case, is due to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phagocytosis" target="_blank">phagocytosis</a> by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macrophage" target="_blank">macrophages</a>, a process which occurs upon inhalation, allowing the inhaled spores to germinate intracellularly, multiply and cause infection.<br />
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It is apparent that Bacillus Anthracis forms the heart of a mystery, a challenge, as we seek to better understand the manner in which it expresses, affecting a number of medical processes in the human body. At the same time, we examine other issues impacting society on a global level, issues of climate change, global warming and their interactions with the changing environment in which we live. These issues will be discussed in further blog articles.<br />
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<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/" target="_blank">Center for Disease Control (CDC</a>):<br />
<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2015/s0529-anthrax-shipment.html" target="_blank">CDC Investigating unintentional DoD shipment of anthrax</a><br />
<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2015/s0529-anthrax-shipment.html" target="_blank">Anthrax</a><br />
<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/anthrax/history/index.html" target="_blank">A History of Anthrax</a><br />
<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2014/p0711-lab-safety.html" target="_blank"> CDC Director Releases After-Action Report on Recent Anthrax Incident</a><br />
<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/24-7/ProtectingPeople/anthrax/index.html" target="_blank">CDC Responds to Anthrax - 2001</a><br />
<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/niosh/nas/RDRP/appendices/chapter6/a6-45.pdf" target="_blank">Review of Fall 2001 Anthrax Bioattacks</a><br />
<a href="http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/20/2/12-0921_article" target="_blank">Injectional Anthrax in Heroin Users - 2000 -2012</a><br />
<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/anthrax/basics/index.html" target="_blank">Anthrax - Basics</a><br />
<a href="http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/20/2/13-0021_article" target="_blank">Investigation of Inhalational Anthrax Case - United States</a><br />
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<a href="http://www.voanews.com/content/us-defense-chief-pentagon-to-find-those-responsible-for-anthrax-shipment/2802068.html">Voice of America -"Carter Vows to Find Those Responsible for Anthrax Shipment"</a><br />
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<a href="https://www.avma.org/KB/Resources/FAQs/Pages/Anthrax-FAQs.aspx" target="_blank">American Veterinary Medical Association (AVMA) - Anthrax FAQ</a><br />
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/">marilyndunstan.blogspot.com</a> <br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2014/10/panspermia-and-evolution.html" target="_blank">Panspermia and Evolution</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2014/11/evolution-of-adaptive-immunity.html" target="_blank"> Evolution of Adaptive Immunity</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2014/11/ebola.html" target="_blank">Ebola</a><br />
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<a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK7699/" target="_blank">Medical Microbiology - Bacillus</a><br />
<a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3294808/" target="_blank">Journal of Bacteriology - Cellular Iron Distribution in Bacillus Anthracis</a><br />
<a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/20621133" target="_blank">Journal of Microbiological Methods - Rapid Sporulation of Bacillus Anthracis in a high iron-glucose free media</a><br />
<a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2934628/" target="_blank">Journal Biological Chemistry - Human Transferrin Confers Serum Resistance Against Bacillus anthracis</a><br />
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<a href="http://goldbook.iupac.org/FT06786.html" target="_blank">IUPAC - Gold Book - Fenton Reaction</a><br />
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Wikipedia:<br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxidative_stress" target="_blank">Oxidative Stress</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phagocytosis" target="_blank"> Phagocytosis</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Macrophage" target="_blank">Macrophage</a><br />
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Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-41069910876494297022015-05-30T15:25:00.000-07:002017-09-28T13:17:06.558-07:00Global Warming and Climate Change - "Polar Pioneer" and Arctic Drilling<br />
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<b><a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/23421799@N06/18093000190/" target="_blank">Royal Dutch Shell's Polar Pioneer, Port of Seattle, Terminal 5, Seattle, WA</a></b></div>
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The visit of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Dutch_Shell" target="_blank">Royal Dutch Shell's</a> <a href="http://www.rigzone.com/data/offshore_drilling_rigs/1095/Semisub/Transocean_Ltd/Transocean_Polar_Pioneer" target="_blank">Polar Pioneer</a> Oil Drilling Rig to the <a href="https://www.portseattle.org/Pages/default.aspx" target="_blank">Port of Seattle's</a> <a href="http://www.portseattle.org/cargo/seacargo/facilities/container-terminals/pages/terminal-5.aspx" target="_blank">Terminal 5</a> in May, 2015 sparked <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/23421799@N06/sets/72157653319000318/" target="_blank">demonstrations</a> <a href="http://www.motherjones.com/blue-marble/2015/05/kayaktavistsv-take-over-seattles-elliott-bay-protest-shell-oil-rig" target="_blank">against drilling</a> for petroleum products in Alaska's Chukchi Sea, and helped to focus attention on environmental issues, the use of energy resources, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality" target="_blank">externalities</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Systemic_risk" target="_blank">systemic risk</a>.<br />
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Energy resources include petroleum products, nuclear energy and alternative energy sources such as solar, wind power, biodiesel, ethanol, hydro and other emerging energy sources. The Polar Pioneer and other Arctic drilling operations are concerned with the development of petroleum resources as the planet deals with exploration for additional sources of petroleum.<br />
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Alaska's <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chukchi_Sea" target="_blank">Chukchi Sea</a>, high in the Arctic, above the Alaska Archipelago, is a marginal sea that sits between Russia and Alaska and is navigable only four months out of the year.<br />
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There are many risks involved in drilling in the Arctic. Past oil spills, such as the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exxon_Valdez" target="_blank">Exxon Valdez</a> oil spill in March, 1989 highlight the risks involved with drilling in such a hostile environment where repairs, mitigation and cleanup are much more difficult. Storms, ice, extremes of light and darkness and other climatological issues present challenges. The opening up of Arctic areas for shipping also presents a long term challenge in a number of ways; this risk includes not simply the risk posed by the oil drilling activities themselves but ancillary activities that support these activities as well as other commercial activities.<br />
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There is the risk that sea lanes could interrupt the ability of sea ice to reform. Sea ice, with a high <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo" target="_blank">albedo</a> (reflectivity index between 0 and 1) , helps to counteract planetary warming. As anyone who has tried to bake an egg on a hot black asphalt knows, black surfaces absorb heat and white surfaces reflect it, and a decrease in sea ice is associated with positive feedback mechanisms that increase global warming. Preserving the Arctic ice in the face of increased commercial traffic is a very important element in ensuring planetary balance.<br />
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Is it possible that the planet is finding its own way towards an equilibrium, as we sit and ponder our options?<br />
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In 2012 a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Algal_bloom" target="_blank">phytoplankton bloom</a> was discovered floating in the Chukchi Sea <a href="http://www.adn.com/article/20090714/huge-blob-arctic-goo-floats-past-slope-communities" target="_blank">between Wainwright and Barrow, Alaska</a>.<br />
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Set in the context of climate change, involving long term planetary forcing mechanisms such as the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles" target="_blank">Milankovitch Cycle</a> and global warming, population growth, globalization, and development of emerging economies, the use of energy resources is an important topic.<br />
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Could this bloom be a mechanism for mitigating the increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide? <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phytoplankton" target="_blank">Phytoplankton</a> account for <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/modis_fluorescence.html" target="_blank">"half of photosynthetic activity on Earth"</a>, according to NOAA. The presence of extensive blooms of the fern Azolla in the Arctic Ocean are associated with the emergence of an ice age in the middle Eocene epoch (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Azolla_event" target="_blank">Azolla Event</a>) 49 million years ago, which transformed the Earth from a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_and_icehouse_Earth" target="_blank">"greenhouse" to an "icehouse"</a>. Blooms have varying ability to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_sequestration" target="_blank">sequester carbon dioxide</a>, as indicated by the <a href="http://theazollafoundation.org/azollas-uses/as-a-co2-sequester/" target="_blank">Azolla foundation</a>.<br />
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The appearance of algal blooms in the Chukchi Sea may be an early indicator of planetary compensatory mechanisms to deal with the increase in carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases (including methane and water vapor ) in the atmosphere, and rising temperatures. <br />
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The issue of drilling in the Arctic's Chukchi Sea is thus an important issue that doesn't simply entail the issues of how to drill in such a hostile environment without disturbing it, but also is set in the context of a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bifurcation_theory" target="_blank">bifurcation point </a>with regards to issues of planetary balance.<br />
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Past articles from my blog on environmental issues and the issues of externalities incude:<br />
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/03/externalities-and-risk-seattle-tacoma.html" target="_blank">Externalities and Risk - The Seattle-Tacoma International Airport</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/02/climate-change-and-carbon.html" target="_blank">Climate Change and Carbon</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/04/seattle-tacoma-international-airport.html" target="_blank">Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Environmental Issues</a> (one of a series on the airport)<br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/02/climate-change-and-thermohaline.html" target="_blank">Climate Change and the Thermohaline Circulation</a><br />
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/" target="_blank">Marilyn Dunstan Photography</a><br />
<br />Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-30352779591920569162015-04-19T23:59:00.002-07:002015-04-20T00:01:37.333-07:00Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Medical Issues<div style="text-align: center;">
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Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, Third Runway,Sea Tac, Washington</div>
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Examination of the impact of the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on the region poses a number of analytic challenges. In a previous blog article, <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/04/seattle-tacoma-international-airport_91.html" target="_blank">Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Pollution</a>, I discussed pollution issues. Links to my other blog issues on the airport may be found listed below.<br />
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The focus of this blog article is on health related issues which may be related to airport operations, keeping in mind that there are other sources of pollution that may contribute to health conditions, and that there are factors other than environmental conditions which may contribute to health conditions.<br />
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Other sources of pollution may include vehicular traffic, such as cars, trucks, vans, buses and rail systems, as well as industry and commerce as well as other human activity such as wood burning. Many factors, in addition to pollutants, contribute to health. Economic and sociological factors such as poverty, education and disenfranchisement all are factors which influence health.<br />
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There is considerable information available from the King County Health Department on the geographical distribution of various medical conditions. These are listed below. Incidences of cancer, respiratory disease, cardiac and pulmonary heart conditions vary throughout the county. <br />
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<b>MEDICAL ISSUES</b><br />
<br />
<b>Known</b><br />
<ul>
<li>A number of medical conditions may be impacted by environmental factors, including cancer, respiratory/pulmonary,sleep disorders, blood/vascular disorders, immune system disorders, cardiac disorders and neurological/psychiatric/psychological issues that can emerge as a result of increased environmental exposure. The impact of air pollution on the generation of reactive species such as oxygen and other radicals may also adversely impact sleep states.</li>
<li>Environmental pollutants often increase generation of reactive species or oxygen radicals, increasing <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxidative_stress" target="_blank">oxidative stress</a>, impacting a number of medical conditions, and may create new ones.</li>
<li>Electromagnetic fields (microwaves) - Potential effects vary according to the distance from the source with general public exposure lessened. Health effects studied include cancer, physiological and thermoregulatory responses, reproductive issues, cataracts, and impacts on calcium ion mobility. Effects have not been sufficiently established to be able to determine regulatory standards.</li>
<li>Studies have been made by the Washington State Department of Health on glioblastoma multiforme and other conditions.</li>
<li>A February 25, 1999 report from the State Health Department and King County Health Department indicates: "While the state health department found that the occurrence of all SeaTac Concerned Citizen cancers in the area within 5 miles of the airport was less than expected in comparison to King County, the Seattle-King County health assessment found an increase in cancer deaths around SeaTac Airport." This study examines health issues in the neighboring communities around the airport.</li>
<li>There are extensive studies from the King County Department of Public Health available regarding a variety of health and socioeconomic factors for the communities in King County. These reports indicate increased incidence of cancer and pulmonary disease, but decreased risk of heart attack, stroke and Alzheimers relative to other areas. There is also a higher degree of cigarette smoking in the region, complicating analysis. There is a range of socioeconomic indicators showing lower socioeconomic indicators in the region.</li>
</ul>
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<b>Past Legacy</b></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>One of the cardinal features of evolution is the incorporation of biologicals and minerals into a system in order to advance features that have evolutionary advantage. This is called <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Biomineralization" target="_blank">biomineralization</a>. It is not inconceivable that out of the many molecules emitted through airport operations (and other sources throughout the region), that one in the witches brew of combinations might find a home within the human body, evolving the system, or throwing a monkey wrench into it. Calcite enabled the creation of the eye in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trilobite#Eyes" target="_blank">trilobytes </a> in the pre-<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cambrian" target="_blank">Cambrian</a>. However a serious problem in this process is the issue of interoperability between systems in such processes.</li>
<li>To what extent does the ground on which we sit impact health? The area holds the legacy of the ASARCO <a href="http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/tcp/sites_brochure/tacoma_smelter/2011/ts-hp.htm" target="_blank">Tacoma Smelter Plume </a> formed in 1899, and the emissions since that period. This legacy impacts rock, soil, water and air. The Seattle-Tacoma International airport sits on a considerable amount of fill, which is in addition any deposition that may have fell on the underlying soil. Other parts of the region may also have been impacted by sand, rock and gravel transported from sites more heavily impacted by the ASARCO Smelter's operations.</li>
<li>The airport sits on Fraser Glaciation, <a href="http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/sea/pugetsound/tour/geology.html" target="_blank">Vashon Stade</a>. To what extent do the rocks around the airport and the water affect health? It is possible that the area of the airport could hold some clue to past evolution. A <a href="http://www.historylink.org/index.cfm?DisplayPage=output.cfm&file_id=9408" target="_blank">sloth </a>was discovered in a swampy area north of the airport in 1961, and a <a href="http://seattlemammoth.org/" target="_blank">mammoth tusk</a> was discovered in the South Lake Union area of Seattle. Both sit at the Burke Museum. DNA analysis from an archaeological find could perhaps provide scientists with clues to help solve emerging problems germane to our evolution and our ancestors.</li>
</ul>
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<b>Emerging or Unknown</b></div>
<ul>
<li>The emergence of new and novel health risks may occur in the witch's brew of chemical soup surrounding the airport and other areas subject to environmental risk. Illnesses that normally occur in other areas of the world may emerge in this arena, given the geological milieu in which the airport sits, the meteorological conditions, and the increased levels of pollutants, including carbon dioxide. Carbon dioxide is a sensitive indicator of global warming and climate change and may also impact the respiratory system in a similar fashion in the immediate neighborhood of the airport.</li>
<li>Seasonal flu and <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/01/avian-flu-h5n1h5n2h5n8-pacific-northwest.html" target="_blank">emerging viruses</a>, could recombine in the environment surrounding the airport, mixing human and bird migration patterns with environmental factors impacting local populations. Thus viruses could serve as a vector for the incorporation of novel or emerging features resulting from the witches brew of chemicals.</li>
<li>Chemicals emitted in the witches brew of chemical emitted from airport operations could be impacted by solar radiation, a source of energy, especially during periods of geomagnetic storms. Potentially subatomic collisions could evoke a transitional state in molecules, and be incorporated into the body. Any impact from the creation of transitional molecules would be in addition to any direct effect from any solar storms.</li>
<li>The witches brew of chemicals emitted by air transport, given the power, acceleration, deceleration and forces put on aircraft engines, abrasion, means that more exotic chemicals may be created. However, it is possible that similar types of reactions may also be occurring in different parts of the region, perhaps to a different extent.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
</ul>
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<b>Establishing Correlations between Pollutants and Medical Conditions</b></div>
<ul>
<li>While some pollutants in particular are points of focus, the extensive lists provided make it difficult to correlate exposures to any one or any combination of health outcomes. This is an issue of multiple correlation analysis in the face of numerous variables and outcomes, many of which may interact with each other to alter individual correlation between any two variables. </li>
<li>Analysis of risk focuses on cancer metrics. While the emergence of the cancer risk is important (and critical), identification of other outcomes is also important. Early indicators of future outcomes may serve as helpful markers of environmental distress before its impact becomes too severe.</li>
<li>Environmental markers might include <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coagulation" target="_blank">blood coagulation</a> measurements, markers for the impact of oxidative stress, markes for nuclear <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DNA" target="_blank">DNA</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitochondrial_DNA" target="_blank">mtDNA</a> damage, and markers for the preference of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glycolysis" target="_blank">glycolysis </a>in cells (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warburg_hypothesis" target="_blank">Warburg Hypothesis</a>), among other things.</li>
<li>Categorization of medical systems, or medical coding, puts medical conditions in "boxes" which may make analysis difficult when causes and/or outcomes cross boundaries, medical conditions are inappropriately categorized or new information informs medicine.</li>
<li>The division of conditions into physiological versus psychological causes presents such difficulties, especially when these conditions are subject to such a wide disparity of treatment throughout the existing sociological framework. The bifurcation of conditions into physiological versus behavioral outcomes tends to create categories that diminish or ignore the health and sociological impact of pollution exposure and/or cross category lines.</li>
<li>Some indices that represent psychological stress may combine various psychological indicators in a weighting formula that may impede the ability to do correlation analysis on any one factor. One is left with memories of Upton Sinclair's "The Jungle", a book about meat packing plants, wondering how the whole was constructed from the parts. Thus, the question remains in indices and tests as to whether the manner in which the indices are constructed drive a certain result or whether indices keep pace with changes in their individual components.</li>
<li>Occupational and environmental health outcomes are not appropriately measured in a manner that can express the full continuum of types of work that exists in the sociological sphere. This reflects the existing dysfunctional definitions of work and disability, and impacts correlation analysis between occupational and environmental health.</li>
<li>Medical fields studying intersecting fields of study, such as neurology, psychiatry and psychology can come into conflict at times, making it more difficult to study health outcomes emerging from environmental factors. </li>
<li>Definitions based on subjective issues such as behavior and, belief systems, emerge to complicate the analysis of the impacts of environmental pollutants.</li>
<li><b><span style="font-weight: normal;">The drive to cut medical costs conflicts with testing the impacts of increased environmental load on the public, leaving the impacts uncertain and placing the burden on those impacted. </span></b></li>
<li>Increased population and economic activity has impacted Western Washington so that environmental risk exists in many places throughout the region, to varying degree.</li>
<li>The medical system currently does not provide sufficient support to provide both testing and treatment of medical conditions which may arise from the increased exposure to environmental pathogens. There are barriers to entry into the medical system which impede the ability to measure outcomes and protect human test subjects in the evolutionary process.</li>
<li>Assessment of different contributors to morbidity and mortality may confound research into the underlying environmental issues. An example of this is assessing the contribution of smoking to morbidity and mortality versus the environmental effects caused by airport operations.</li>
<li>Different statistical measures may be used by reports, confusing the reader or making it difficult to interpret data shown in different forms; Data may be presented with an <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incidence_(epidemiology)" target="_blank">incidence</a> rate (occurrence of a condition in a population over a period of time), a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prevalence" target="_blank">prevalence</a> rate (percentage of a population having a condition at a specific period of time) or <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortality_rate" target="_blank">mortality rate</a> (percentage of deaths in a population over a period of time). The US Government publishes data on <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Morbidity_and_Mortality_Weekly_Report" target="_blank">morbidity and mortality </a>.</li>
</ul>
<ul>
</ul>
The challenge is to put together to what extent the environmental factors drive the medical and socioeconomic factors and are in turn influenced by them, in a positive feedback loop.<br />
<br />
<b>Sources:</b><br />
<a href="http://www.pscleanair.org/library/Documents/PSAirToxicsEvalFinal.pdf" target="_blank">Puget Sound Clean Air Agency - Final Report - Puget Sound Air Toxics Evaluation - October 2003</a><br />
<a href="http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/tcp/sites_brochure/tacoma_smelter/2011/ts-hp.htm" target="_blank">Department of Ecology - Toxic Cleanup Program (ASARCO Smelter Plume)</a><br />
<a href="http://www.who.int/peh-emf/publications/facts/fs226/en/" target="_blank">World Health Organization - Electromagnetic Fields</a><br />
<a href="http://www.airportsites.net/SEA-Part150/default.htm" target="_blank">Port of Seattle - Part 150 Study</a><br />
<a href="http://www.portseattle.org/Environmental/Water-Wetlands-Wildlife/Pages/Groundwater-Monitoring.aspx" target="_blank">Port of Seattle - Groundwater Monitoring</a><br />
<a href="http://www.portseattle.org/Environmental/Water-Wetlands-Wildlife/Stormwater/Documents/STIA_SWPPP_current.pdf" target="_blank">Port of Seattle - Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan</a><br />
<a href="http://www.sjweh.fi/show_abstract.php?abstract_id=2024" target="_blank">Scandanavian Journal of Health</a> - Glioblastoma Multiforme<br />
<a href="http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/tcp/sites_brochure/tacoma_smelter/2011/ts-hp.htm" target="_blank">Tacoma Smelter Plume Information</a> - Washington Department of Ecology<br />
<a href="http://www.kingcounty.gov/healthservices/health/data/indicators.aspx" target="_blank">King County Community Health Indicators </a>- King County (Top 10 Leading Causes of Death)<br />
<a href="http://www.kingcounty.gov/healthservices/health/data/SchoolProfiles.aspx" target="_blank">King County Public Health -School District Health Profiles</a><br />
<a href="http://www.kingcounty.gov/healthservices/health/data/CityProfiles.aspx" target="_blank">King County Health Profile</a><br />
<a href="http://www.kingcounty.gov/healthservices/health/data.aspx" target="_blank">King County Public Health - Data and Reports</a><br />
<br />
Blog Articles:<br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/03/externalities-and-risk-seattle-tacoma.html" target="_blank">Externalities and Risk - The Seattle-Tacoma International Airport</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/04/seattle-tacoma-international-airport.html" target="_blank">Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Environmental Issues</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/04/seattle-tacoma-international-airport_91.html" target="_blank">Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Pollution</a>Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-5429339431663841112015-04-17T21:26:00.001-07:002015-04-18T08:23:35.229-07:00<b>Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Pollution</b><br />
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Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, Third Runway,Sea Tac, Washington</div>
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<br />
Environmental impacts of the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport present a number of issues, as discussed in my previous blog articles, <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/03/externalities-and-risk-seattle-tacoma.html" target="_blank">Externalities and Risk - The Seattle-Tacoma International Airport</a> and <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/04/seattle-tacoma-international-airport.html" target="_blank">The Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Environmental Issues</a>. Cities around the airport such as <a href="https://www.burienwa.gov/" target="_blank">Burien</a>, <a href="http://www.ci.seatac.wa.us/" target="_blank">Sea Tac</a>, <a href="http://www.tukwilawa.gov/" target="_blank">Tukwila</a>, <a href="http://www.ci.normandy-park.wa.us/" target="_blank">Normandy Park</a> and <a href="https://www.dmgov.org/Pages/default.aspx" target="_blank">Des Moines</a> have gained economically from airport operations and have suffered costs, or externalities from airport operations.<br />
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The airport and the trade that it generates are the 800 pound gorilla in the neighborhood, are the drivers of economic change and development, and through the multiplier effect are responsible for a great deal of economic development in the region which they do not directly manage.<br />
<br />
It is clear to those living in the neighborhood of the airport that there are considerable externalities involved with regards to airport operations. Citizens note the impact of air and noise pollution. It is also true that the airport has a significant impact on the larger region. Increased airport operations may necessitate it compressing activities within its existing space, enlarging its footprint by buying properties, or having some operations move to other airports. Airports in the region include Renton Municipal Airport, King County Airport/Boeing Field and Paine Field in Everett. Moses Lake in Eastern Washington, which has a large runway, could even be considered a possibility to relieve additional load.<br />
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A recent Sea Tac City Council meeting (April 16, 2015) addressed a number of these issues, looking towards long term growth in airport utilization (2.9% average per year over a twenty year period with greater increase in the near term), and the potential of a Federal Aviation Agency building to the South of the Airport. There is already a Federal Detention Center to the south of the airport. Some airport usages, such as food services, could potentially move outside the perimeter of the airport.<br />
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It is difficult to extract the specific environmental impact of the airport on the region from other sources of pollution, to attribute differences in health and socioeconomic metrics to specific environmental factors when air, noise and electromagnetic waves show no boundaries, and where there are many other sources of pollution including cars, trucks and other industries or point sources. There are feedback mechanism which work between all the relevant variables which complicate analysis.<br />
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There are a variety of studies available from governmental sources regarding emissions, sociological parameters and assessing the risk from the pollutants that the public is exposed to. These studies present analytic challenges due to the extensive number of variables involved, the manner in which the variables are measured (or not measured), their subjectivity and issues of comparability over time.<br />
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The environment around the airport serves as a metaphor for the environmental challenges that confront us, an example that is repeated in other environments. Thus any studies done in the microclimate or vicinity of the airport could be used as examples for other areas facing similar issues. The situation around the airport must be examined in the context of the growth and economic development issues that we face, so that we can develop policy which will help us face the increasing social and economic challenges that face us. <br />
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A Washington Department of Health and King County Department of Public Health study in 1999 provides an example of a report that is focused on the area around the airport, looking at one, three and five mile bands around the airport. Perhaps this report could be expanded to include the examination of additional variables of concern. This report looked at the condition of glioblastoma, a neurological cancer disorder and other conditions. King County Department of Health has an extensive variety of reports available on health and sociological issues.<br />
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Future studies must include all communities impacted in the area around the airport, including those indicated in the first paragraph. The larger question is how the externalities of airport operation may be addressed and compensated for, and the needs of the immediate and larger communities met. It is apparent that there is a problem, that it does impact health and well being, including both psychological well being and physiological well being. While another study would be valuable, and should be done, as the study is undertaken, steps should be taken to remedy the immediate situation in the face of increased economic development. Perhaps permanent residential properties in the close vicinity of the airport can be purchased and used for their operations which can be moved outside the fence.<br />
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However difficult it is to bring all the variable together in a rigid analytic framework, analysis of the situation becomes apparent when you take a step back and look at the big picture. The airport has a profound effect that does not appear to be captured fully by the measurements that are provided to us. Human beings are being experimented on, and the environment around the airport is transforming people, perhaps in a way that they do not wish to be transformed. This issue has profound psychological, medical, economic and sociological implications.<br />
<br />
Examination of the situation presents a number of analytic problems, many of which involve measurements and their interpretation. I discuss these issues in this and future blog articles.<br />
<br />
<b>The Pollutants</b><br />
<br />
<ul>
<li>The wide range of pollutants discussed form a witch's brew of chemicals, including <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diesel_exhaust#Particulates" target="_blank">diesel particulate matter</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cadmium" target="_blank">cadmium</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arsenic" target="_blank">arsenic</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polycyclic_aromatic_hydrocarbon" target="_blank">polycyclic aromatichydrocarbons</a> (PAHs), <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lead" target="_blank">lead</a>, and many others.</li>
<li>Air quality and water quality standards do not exist for many of the pollutants mentioned, presenting a problem in taking regulatory action.</li>
<li>Pollutants may interact in unexpected ways. With so many pollutants, and so many combinations, it may be difficult to ascertain the impact of all the interactions and the direct contribution of the airport to those interaction. </li>
<li>While it may be difficult to attribute the direct contribution of the airport to pollutant levels, the airport's impact through the multiplier effect gives greater credibility to the airport's contribution to overall pollutant levels. At that point it becomes an issue of assigning the costs of those externalities to those benefiting from the airport's presence through the multiplier effect. An example of this would be shuttle pick up services and cabs.</li>
<li>Pollutants may combine with meteorological or solar conditions in unexpected ways, perhaps generating new, transitory, and unanticipated chemical reactions</li>
<li>The movement of pollutant monitors over time makes it difficult to perform long term studies analyzing the impact of pollution on public health. Opportunity to measure long term trends and make comparisons between stations is decreased when stations are moved elsewhere.</li>
<li>The methods of measuring pollutants and standards for assessing health risks have changed over the years, especially as new equipment has been developed. Questions arise as to what extent new measurement methods correlate with old methods, what information is gained or lost by using these new methods, and how the continuity of data has been impacted.</li>
<li>There are locations which have not been monitored, at the western edge of the airport, which may represent a microclimate more susceptible to the pooling of polluted air, especially during inversions when the air is stagnant, considering the barrier formed by the third runway's berm.</li>
<li>It is not clear to what extent the aquifer is impacted by pollutants affecting water quality, and to what extent any water pollution is due to airport operations or property. This is an issue reflecting the Tacoma Smelter Plume and any fill underlaying the airport and its impact on the environment and other issues.</li>
<li>It is difficult to ascertain the contributions of the individual sources to the pollutant load in the area, although to a certain extent usage of fuels of various types may serve as a proxy.</li>
<li>While there is some information on noise levels, the metrics do not do a sufficient job of measuring the risk and the impacts. Noise decibel level frequency distributions would be helpful, especially in capturing the impact of engine backblast. It is clear that the full time population lives too close to the airport for the noise levels experienced. Increased insulation helps, but to have full impact, requires windows to be closed. The experience of the Federal Detention Center in Sea Tac might be helpful in analyzing this issue.</li>
<li>The focus on carbon dioxide has been on its contribution as a greenhouse gas to global warming. While this is important on a global scale, the impacts of carbon dioxide in smaller areas, microclimates may be important to analyze in so far as they may impact the emergence of health conditions.</li>
<li>Air traffic control and weather radars may contribute to a variety of health conditions through the generation of electromagnetic fields ranging from 300 MHz to 15 GHz which fit within the microwave energy spectrum. Microwaves are electromagnetic waves with frequencies between 300 MHz and 300 GHz. It would be helpful to have more monitoring information regarding electromagnetic fields and their attenuation over distance resulting from airport operations, including radar and radio signals.</li>
<li>Study results discussing pollutant results with other parameters are sometimes expressed as not exceeding a certain standard level. It would be helpful to present the actual data values themselves, so that the public can ascertain how close the levels are to exceeding standards, and what their trends are. </li>
</ul>
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I will discuss health and other issues in the next blog article.</div>
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<br /></div>
<b>Sources of Information</b><br />
<a href="http://www.pscleanair.org/library/Documents/PSAirToxicsEvalFinal.pdf" target="_blank">Puget Sound Clean Air Agency - Final Report - Puget Sound Air Toxics Evaluation - October 2003</a><br />
<a href="http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/tcp/sites_brochure/tacoma_smelter/2011/ts-hp.htm" target="_blank">Department of Ecology - Toxic Cleanup Program (ASARCO Smelter Plume)</a><br />
<a href="http://www.who.int/peh-emf/publications/facts/fs226/en/" target="_blank">World Health Organization - Electromagnetic Fields</a><br />
<a href="http://www.airportsites.net/SEA-Part150/default.htm" target="_blank">Port of Seattle - Part 150 Study</a><br />
<a href="http://www.portseattle.org/Environmental/Water-Wetlands-Wildlife/Pages/Groundwater-Monitoring.aspx" target="_blank">Port of Seattle - Groundwater Monitoring</a><br />
<a href="http://www.portseattle.org/Environmental/Water-Wetlands-Wildlife/Stormwater/Documents/STIA_SWPPP_current.pdf" target="_blank">Port of Seattle - Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan</a><br />
<a href="http://www.sjweh.fi/show_abstract.php?abstract_id=2024" target="_blank">Scandanavian Journal of Health</a> - Glioblastoma Multiforme<br />
<a href="http://www.ecy.wa.gov/programs/tcp/sites_brochure/tacoma_smelter/2011/ts-hp.htm" target="_blank">Tacoma Smelter Plume Information</a> - Washington Department of Ecology<br />
<a href="http://www.kingcounty.gov/healthservices/health/data/indicators.aspx" target="_blank">King County Community Health Indicators </a>- King County (Top 10 Leading Causes of Death)<br />
<a href="http://www.kingcounty.gov/healthservices/health/data/SchoolProfiles.aspx" target="_blank">King County Public Health -School District Health Profiles</a><br />
<a href="http://www.kingcounty.gov/healthservices/health/data/CityProfiles.aspx" target="_blank">King County Health Profile</a><br />
<a href="http://www.kingcounty.gov/healthservices/health/data.aspx" target="_blank">King County Public Health - Data and Reports</a>Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-5339314140586072662015-04-01T13:20:00.001-07:002015-09-03T09:55:13.746-07:00Seattle-Tacoma International Airport - Environmental Issues<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Airplane Landing in the Fog at Night</div>
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Seattle-Tacoma International Airport</div>
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In my recent article, <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/03/externalities-and-risk-seattle-tacoma.html" target="_blank">"Externalities and Risks, the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport"</a>, I discussed externalities associated with Airport operations. The Airport environment presents a number of environmental issues, many of which are impacted by meteorological factors.<br />
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Fog is an important risk factor. <a href="http://flightsafety.org/aerosafety-world-magazine/june-2010/obscured-by-fog" target="_blank">Fog reduces visibility</a>, and although airports have radar systems, fog is still a hazard for pilots to be aware of. Fog is a cloud at ground level, water droplets or ice suspended in air. Suspended particulates or gas molecules can provide a nucleus around which water droplets or ice can form, thus encouraging the formation of clouds. Enucleated pollutants, such as sulfur dioxide gain an easier entry into the respiratory system, increasing the impact on health.<br />
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During the fall, winter and spring, when <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inversion_%28meteorology%29" target="_blank">temperature inversions</a> form, often in the wake of high pressure systems, there is an increased risk from pollutants, often accompanied by fog. This is especially true in the Pacific Northwest with the influence of marine air from the Pacific Ocean. </div>
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A normal temperature gradient is warmer air on the surface and colder air aloft. A temperature inversion reverses the normal gradient, trapping colder air on the bottom layer, with warmer air aloft.<br />
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Temperature inversions early this year influenced the snow pack in the mountains, as temperatures warmed aloft. Temperature inversions can impact the levels of ice pack and the availability of water from mountain sources. Because pollutants are trapped with the warm air aloft and the cold air on the bottom, pollutants are trapped within a lesser layer of air, increasing the density of pollutants. These conditions lead to air stagnation advisories and burn bans, which are called by the <a href="http://www.pscleanair.org/Pages/default.aspx" target="_blank">Puget Sound Clean Air Agency</a>.<br />
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Climate change and global warming may impact a variety of meteorological factors, increasing severity. Other meteorological factors affecting air traffic may include wind shear, thunderstorms, snow storms and heat, which is of concern in the southwest, where a certain air density is required for take off.</div>
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Pollutants from aviation operations are a concern. Pollutants are the product of <a href="http://www.grc.nasa.gov/WWW/k-12/airplane/combst1.html" target="_blank">combustion</a> of aircraft fuel, burning of oils and solvents as well as particulate matter which may become abraded especially during take off and landing (TO/L) where the stresses on parts are higher.<br />
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<a href="http://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/gp/bgp/2_5_Aircraft.pdf" target="_blank">Aircraft emissions</a> include a variety of gases, including those of interest in analysis of climate change and global warming. These gases include <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide" target="_blank">carbon dioxide</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane" target="_blank">methane</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitrous_oxide" target="_blank">nitrous oxide</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitrogen_oxide" target="_blank">nitrogen oxides</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatile_organic_compound" target="_blank">volatile organic compounds</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_monoxide" target="_blank">carbon monoxide</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sulfur_dioxide" target="_blank">sulfur dioxide</a>. </div>
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A study by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) gives a comprehensive study of<a href="http://www.faa.gov/regulations_policies/policy_guidance/envir_policy/media/aeprimer.pdf" target="_blank"> aircraft emissions</a>. <br />
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The components of aircraft emissions may vary depending on whether they are aloft, and considered greenhouse gasses, or local air quality pollutants. " Aircraft engine emissions are roughly composed of about 70 percent <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_dioxide" target="_blank">CO2</a>, a little less than 30 percent H2O, and less than 1 percent each of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NOx" target="_blank">NOx</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_monoxide" target="_blank">CO</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sulfur_oxide" target="_blank">SOx</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volatile_organic_compound" target="_blank">VOC</a>, particulates, and other trace components including <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Emissions_Standards_for_Hazardous_Air_Pollutants" target="_blank">HAPs."</a><br />
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About ten percent (10%) of aircraft emissions, except for carbon monoxide and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydrocarbon" target="_blank">hydrocarbons</a> occur at ground level. Thirty percent (30%) of Carbon monoxide and hydrocarbon emissions from aircraft occur at ground level.<br />
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Carbon Dioxide and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitric_oxide" target="_blank">Nitric oxides</a>, and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane" target="_blank">methane</a>, as well as water vapor have significant contributions to climate change and global warming. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone" target="_blank">Ozone</a> is also an issue with aircraft emissions, although the effect is felt downwind due to the impact and timing of the photochemical effect that produces ozone.<br />
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The airport industry, according to industry source <a href="http://www.atag.org/facts-and-figures.html" target="_blank">Air Transport Action Group (ATAG)</a>, produces 2% of world carbon dioxide emissions and 12% of carbon dioxide emissions from transportation sources. The impact of carbon dioxide may be more significant before springtime, when leaves emerge on the deciduous trees. Levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can be illustrated by the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keeling_Curve" target="_blank">Keeling Curve</a> which graphs levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over time. One concern is that carbon dioxide emissions may impact feedback mechanisms that determine breathing patterns and modulate delivery of oxygen throughout the body. <br />
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An <a href="http://www.icao.int/publications/Documents/9889_cons_en.pdf" target="_blank">Airport Report Quality Manual</a> published by the <a href="http://www.icao.int/Pages/default.aspx" target="_blank">International Civil Aviation Organization</a> discusses Airport Pollution issues. They discuss various particulate matter of varying sizes (10 micrometers or less, or PM2.5 of 2.5 micrometers or less. Particulate matter "has a very diverse composition (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_metal_%28chemistry%29" target="_blank">heavy metals</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sulfate" target="_blank">sulphates</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nitrate" target="_blank">nitrates</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ammonium" target="_blank">ammonium</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Total_organic_carbon" target="_blank">organic carbons</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polycyclic_aromatic_hydrocarbon" target="_blank">polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dioxins_and_dioxin-like_compounds" target="_blank">dioxins</a>/<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Furan" target="_blank">furans</a>)."<br />
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The manual states: "Effects: fine particles and soot can cause respiratory and cardiovascular disorders, increased mortality and cancer risk; dust deposition can cause contamination of the soil, plants and also, via the food chain, human exposure to heavy metals and dioxins/furans contained in dust."<br />
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Air pollution impacts many systems. <a href="http://www.hc-sc.gc.ca/ewh-semt/air/out-ext/health-sante/respir-eng.php" target="_blank">Respiratory systems</a>, in particular, are affected, impacting the delivery of oxygen to the bloodstream, and thus to the brain, affecting the respiratory muscles and vasculature, and impacting sleep. <a href="http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&pid=S1806-37132012000500015&lng=en&nrm=iso&tlng=en" target="_blank">Air Pollution and the Respiratory System</a> is a comprehensive journal article discussing the topic. <a href="http://www.clinsci.org/cs/115/0175/cs1150175.htm" target="_blank">Cardiovascular systems</a> also are impacted. Air quality issues raise a number of concerns.<br />
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Noise pollution from airport operations also have a significant impact. <a href="http://www.eoearth.org/view/article/154869/" target="_blank">Meteorological conditions</a> also affect the sound propagation, or noise emissions from airport operations. According the "Encyclopedia of the Earth", microclimate effects can impact the refraction of sound waves through the atmosphere, intensifying sound levels. Noise emissions may result in a variety of physiological and psychological impacts, including cardiovascular effects. Such effects may reflect exposure to short, high intensity effects from jet engine backblast, to longer term impacts of exposure to moderate sound levels.<br />
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Emissions from Airport operations play an important role in contributing to pollution, both in the immediate area of the airport, in a larger, regional context, and with regards to global issues of planetary climate change and global warming. Externalities from such emissions encapsulate the full downstream effects of these emissions, which impact citizens who may incur the cost of such emissions but not share in the economic benefits that the airport brings to the region.<br />
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Meteorological conditions affect the deposition of such emissions, near or far, through the atmosphere, in soil or water, or perhaps deposited in human tissue, blood or other organs of the body. Thus the effects of emissions on water systems is important It is interesting to note that the human body is about <a href="https://water.usgs.gov/edu/propertyyou.html" target="_blank">55%</a> to <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Body_water" target="_blank">65%</a> water, depending on who and what is being measured, so that the study of water systems can include the atmosphere, rivers, lakes, oceans, and even the human body. <br />
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Given the dispersion and deposition of emissions from airport operations, a challenge is to pluck out the impacts attributable to airport operations from other sources surrounding the airport, some of which are directly related to, and gain from, the airport's presence. This issue brings me back to the original blog article on <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/03/externalities-and-risk-seattle-tacoma.html" target="_blank">"Externalities and Risks, the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport"</a>,<br />
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Future blog articles will further explore these issues, taking into account current locally available information, assessing the measurement of risks, and considering means of compensating those impacted for the economic and social burden of the externalities in question. These are important issues that have implications for both local and global health, extending into physiological and psychological areas that impact humanity.<br />
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Blog Articles:<br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/03/externalities-and-risk-seattle-tacoma.html" target="_blank">Externalities and Risk - The Seattle Tacoma International Airport</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/02/climate-change-and-carbon.html" target="_blank">Climate Change and Carbon </a></div>
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2014/11/climate-change-and-global-health.html" target="_blank">Climate Change and Global Health</a></div>
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2014_03_01_archive.html" target="_blank">World Health Organization Report on Air Pollution and Health</a></div>
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Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-61759427266577559402015-03-25T22:57:00.004-07:002015-03-25T23:37:35.558-07:00Externalities and Risk - The Seattle-Tacoma International Airport<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<b>Birds, Third Runway, Seattle-Tacoma International Airport</b></div>
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The City of SeaTac held a meeting on March 24, 2015 that included discussons on the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Sustainable Master Plan by Port of Seattle representatives. A news report of the meeting can be found on the <a href="http://www.seatacblog.com/" target="_blank">SeaTac blog</a>.<br />
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My comments at the meeting addressed the issue of externalities associated with airport operations and their impact on the surrounding community, especially in the area of health. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Externality" target="_blank">Externalties</a> are an important topic in social and economic policy. An externality is the consequence of an economic activity affecting a party that did not choose to participate in that activity. <br />
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There are a myriad of issues surrounding development in the area of the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. The airport is an engine of growth and development which brings business into the region, and as a hub, enables the flow of commerce to other areas of the country and the world. The airport provides economic benefit through the multiplier effect. The multiplier effect is an economic term to express the economic effect that the introduction of an engine of growth has on the community.<br />
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The airport provides jobs to support direct and ancillary airport operations. As business cluster around the airport (e.g. Car Parks, shuttles), these activities provide an engine for the economy's growth.<br />
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However economic activities have costs, as well. In addition to direct costs to service airport operations, costs may include building more roads to service traffic that serves the airport and other municipal items. <br />
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There are a number of externalities arising out of airport operations. These issues involve air, water and noise pollution, impacts on the respiratory and other health systems, and even sense of smell. There are psychological impacts, as well, including psychological impacts that express themselves over a wider social framework.<br />
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Airport externality issues are felt on a local basis, by those living at the edges of the airport, nearby, those under flight paths and on a city level as cities adapt to the challenges presented by the airport's growth. While these externalities are felt most acutely locally, they are also expressed over a wider distance throughout the region as the area struggles to deal with challenges presented by increased commercial and passenger activity.<br />
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I list blog articles regarding externalities in a variety of areas (below) to establish a context within which the impact of the airport can be viewed as an individual example of an externality.<br />
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"<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/07/externalities.html" target="_blank">Externalties</a>"<br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2014_03_01_archive.html" target="_blank"> "World Air Pollution Organization Report on Air Pollution and Health"</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2014/11/climate-change-and-global-health.html" target="_blank">"Climate Change and Global Health"</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/01/avian-flu-h5n1h5n2h5n8-pacific-northwest.html" target="_blank"> "Avian Flu"</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/07/mt-rainier-balance-of-risks.html" target="_blank">"Mt Rainier Balance of Risks"</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/07/nuclear-balance-of-risks.html" target="_blank"> "Nuclear Balance of Risks</a>"<br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2014/11/president-ronald-reagan-and-alzheimers.html" target="_blank">"President Ronald Reagan and Alzheimer's Disease"</a><br />
<br />Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-72051798068993718812015-02-26T18:07:00.001-08:002017-09-28T13:28:44.518-07:00Climate Change and the Thermohaline Circulation<br />
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Sea Ice, Svalbard, Norway</div>
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In my previous article on <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/02/climate-change-and-carbon.html" target="_blank">Climate Change and Carbon</a>, I discussed the impact that carbon emissions have on climate change and global warming. I discussed international agreements, global temperature, carbon sequestration, carbon dioxide as a sensitive indicator of climate change, and global health as a factor in how we interact with a changing world.<br />
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In this article I discuss the thermohaline circulation and its interrelationship with climate change. The thermohaline circulation may be explained by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chaos_theory" target="_blank">chaos theory</a>, as a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bifurcation_theory" target="_blank">"bifurcation point"</a>, a sensitive indicator which may keep the planet under one paradigm, or place it into another paradigm, presenting planetary challenges.<br />
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Planetary cycles (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles" target="_blank">Milankovitch Cycles</a>) indicate a trajectory at this time towards planetary cooling, or glaciation, reflecting a continuing decrease in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Axial_tilt" target="_blank">axial tilt (obliquity)</a> . This long term cycle (41,000 years) presents <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychosocial" target="_blank">psychosocial</a> difficulties for those who are not accustomed to thinking on a scale involving geologic time. Such a scale seems way too far off to appear relevant, eclipsing by orders of magnitude scales such as 100-year floods or 500-year volcanic eruption intervals such as at Mt Rainier as discussed in my <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2011/07/mt-rainier-balance-of-risks.html" target="_blank">2011 blog article</a>.<br />
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At the same time as underlying very long term planetary cycles (e.g. obliquity) are pointing us towards planetary cooling, our earth is warming with the effects of climate change. We are in the throes of opposite systems colliding, facing very different issues. The immediate climate change issues are important, however considering the long term factors is also relevant to the discussion. Global health issues are tied up in both discussions, as evolution may take a variety of paths in response to planetary indicators.<br />
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My blog article, <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2014/11/climate-change-and-global-health.html" target="_blank">Climate Change and global health</a> discusses some of the ramifications of health effects of climate change, including those depicted as coastal flooding. A trend towards <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glacial_period" target="_blank">glaciation</a>, a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Little_Ice_Age" target="_blank">Mini-Ice Age</a> or even in the extreme, a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snowball_Earth" target="_blank">Snowball Earth</a> would bring on very different changes, and adaptations and implications for global health.<br />
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The oceans are an important factor to consider in assessing such developments. The Earth goes between <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greenhouse_and_icehouse_Earth" target="_blank">icehouse and greenhouse cycles</a>. These cycles can be captured via examination and measurement of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calcite_sea" target="_blank">calcite</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aragonite_sea" target="_blank">aragonite</a> seas. A <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calcite_sea#mediaviewer/File:CalciteAragonite.jpg" target="_blank">graph</a>, shows the emergence of an aragonite threshold during the current period, which might indicate the emergence of a period of glaciation. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aragonite_sea" target="_blank">Aragonite seas</a> contain high magnesium calcite, and less abundantly, aragonite while <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calcite_sea" target="_blank">calcite seas</a> have lower magnesium content, which increases as a threshold is reached.<br />
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The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Calcite" target="_blank">calcites</a> are inorganic carbonate precipitates, with calcium carbonate (CaCO3) being most common precipitate. Other precipitates include aragonite and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaterite" target="_blank">vaterite</a>. These precipitates emerge in a number of areas, including shells of marine organisms, including <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plankton" target="_blank">plankton</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Foraminifera" target="_blank">foraminafera</a> and <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/03/04/science/when-trilobites-ruled-the-world.html?_r=0" target="_blank">trilobytes</a> (where calcite was responsible for development of eyes).<br />
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There are a number of planetary adjustment factors that act to keep the planet in balance. The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (<a href="http://www.noaa.gov/" target="_blank">NOAA</a>) has a wide variety of information for the general public on science, research and further information regarding the <a href="http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/tutorial_currents/05conveyor3.html" target="_blank">thermohaline circulation</a> , the <a href="http://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/pd/oceans_weather_climate/welcome.html" target="_blank">ocean</a> and its role in climate. The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation" target="_blank">thermohaline circulation</a> is central to the issue of planetary climate control.<br />
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<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Positive_feedback" target="_blank">Positive feedback</a> loops work to increase the risk of global warming. This effect occurs as the sea ice extent decreases, exposing open ocean and thus decreasing the planetary <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albedo" target="_blank">albedo</a>. Higher albedo is associated with higher reflectivity, or less heat retention, while lower albedo is associated with lower reflectivity and greater heat absorption.<br />
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As more heat is retained by the Earth, especially in the polar regions (the Arctic and the Antarctic), warming increases. With increased warming comes melting, of sea ice, icebergs and glaciers, This melting may impact Arctic regions such as Greenland and <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/ArcticIce/arctic_ice3.php" target="_blank">Arctic Ice</a>, as well as the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filchner-Ronne_Ice_Shelf" target="_blank">Weddell Ice Shelf in Antarctica</a>.and <a href="http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/SeaIce/page4.php" target="_blank">Antarctic Sea Ice</a>. Ice may be lost from glaciers, resulting in the formation of tabular icebergs, and calving of those icebergs, which may increase melting, just as a bag of ice cubes melts faster than block ice.<br />
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The melting that occurs increases the flow of fresh water into the oceans. This is particularly felt in the Arctic, where the thermohaline circulation travels northward from the warmer Gulf Coast of North American waters to cold North Atlantic Arctic waters.<br />
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The infusion of fresh water in the North Atlantic may disrupt the sinking of the saltier water in the North Atlantic, which develops as the result of formation of sea ice (as sea ice forms, it forms from fresh water and the surrounding water gets saltier, and sinks to deeper depths). This infusion of fresh water in the North Atlantic could result in disruption of the thermohaline conveyor belt, thus impeding the delivery of warm water from the Gulf to northern areas in both North America and Europe, resulting in much harsher winters. A shutdown of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shutdown_of_thermohaline_circulation" target="_blank">thermohaline circulation</a> could have very serious impacts on global climate.<br />
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Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-68358823978011154932015-02-21T10:19:00.001-08:002017-09-28T13:30:18.587-07:00Climate Change and Carbon<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtHtExUMFXkpfhL-U9QMSzEebvGUsc7IGDa7Y6HOyIpdMLouCI1t1OnfXwAX-rQ-rsPazP9gSIEGaL3GShXAC3X-AZph8Oj6JKZVlRTFeGGztdQJwgQPqe-2wfIENtk3EyIg1PqYK4qDk/s1600/Dunstan_20101102_X5H4517.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjtHtExUMFXkpfhL-U9QMSzEebvGUsc7IGDa7Y6HOyIpdMLouCI1t1OnfXwAX-rQ-rsPazP9gSIEGaL3GShXAC3X-AZph8Oj6JKZVlRTFeGGztdQJwgQPqe-2wfIENtk3EyIg1PqYK4qDk/s1600/Dunstan_20101102_X5H4517.jpg" width="320" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/gallery-image/Environmental-Issues/G00004Y4eQFUvrsg/I0000SmEACy6I2k8/C0000Po6Wv9tx2Ec" target="_blank">Plume from Stack, Longview, Washington</a></div>
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Global Warming and Climate change are important topics. <a href="http://unfccc.int/2860.php" target="_blank"> Recent talks</a> at the <a href="http://www.un.org/en/" target="_blank">United Nations</a> have highlighted the concern about these planetary issues that go beyond borders and seek to unite people in discovering means to solve the emerging problems. <br />
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The United Nations <a href="http://www.un.org/climatechange/" target="_blank">climate change</a> site indicates that 2014 is on track to being <a href="http://www.un.org/climatechange/blog/2014/12/2014-track-among-hottest-record/" target="_blank">among the hottest on record</a>. Christiana Figueres, Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change states "Fortunately our political climate is changing too with evidence that governments, supported by investors, business and cities are moving towards a meaningful, universal climate agreement in Paris 2015 - an agreement that keeps a global temperature rise below 2 degrees C by putting in place the pathways to a deep de-carbonisation of the world's economy and climate neutrality or 'net zero' in the second half of the century."<br />
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A recent article in<a href="http://www.scientificamerican.com/article/paris-talks-won-t-limit-global-warming-to-less-than-2-degrees-c/" target="_blank"> Scientific American</a> discusses United Nations climate talks in Paris last December. As the article indicates "(The planet's surface has warmed about 0.85 degrees C (1.5 degrees F) since 1880, worsening floods, storms and deadly heat waves.) The 2 degrees C target has since become a keystone goal of the negotiations."<br />
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NASA's, <a href="http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/" target="_blank">Global Climate Change</a>: Vital Signs of the Planet displays information about climate change. including graphs and latest measurements. This information shows steadily increasing recorded carbon dioxide levels in recent history, with inputed history obtained from ice cores indicating significant variation from historical levels over three glaciation periods. Ice cores have been drawn from the Arctic, Antarctic and mountain glaciers. The measured value as of January 2015 showed 399.73 parts per million (ppm), just under 400 ppm. At current rates it should exceed 400 ppm in February 2015.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTAbKBe0BlD_t1bMpSUovKg23zQoABW_s4O3eo2gZvZXzCy8r4xjvjnTZBNzNpK2bGzY42EVKhArXMu8gbxDttq_6lMcl8gD1u-M21go9y6oI7qbk3DtyntSKCrB9NtF3ZpkkZ5FPLtqI/s1600/Dunstan_20041211SnowHillIsland0003.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em; text-align: center;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgTAbKBe0BlD_t1bMpSUovKg23zQoABW_s4O3eo2gZvZXzCy8r4xjvjnTZBNzNpK2bGzY42EVKhArXMu8gbxDttq_6lMcl8gD1u-M21go9y6oI7qbk3DtyntSKCrB9NtF3ZpkkZ5FPLtqI/s1600/Dunstan_20041211SnowHillIsland0003.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/gallery-image/Antarctica/G0000JR5XgPM7WAg/I0000wGGwbmo_B2w/C0000TuhTSJ1hF2Y" target="_blank">Snow Hill Island, Antarctic Peninsula, Antarctica</a></div>
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NASA's Climate Change site provides information on <a href="http://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/" target="_blank">Global Temperature</a>. Five year averages in global temperature are measured relative to a 1951-1980 average temperature baseline, indicating a dip in global temperature around 1910 and a steady rise since then.<br />
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Global Warming concerns have fostered considerable research on climate change issues, seeking ways to mitigate the impacts of climate change, providing potential solutions. Climate change and environmental issues have been addressed at local, state, federal and international levels. The <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/" target="_blank">CIA World Factbook</a> provides a list of <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2032.html" target="_blank">Current Environmental issues</a> and <a href="https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/fields/2033.html" target="_blank">international agreements</a> which countries listed are a "party to" and/or "signed, but not ratified".<br />
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I discuss some of the issues relating to climate change, including global health in other blog articles relating to <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2014/11/climate-change-and-global-health.html" target="_blank">Climate Change and Global Health</a> and <a href="http://marilyndunstan.blogspot.com/2015/01/avian-flu-h5n1h5n2h5n8-pacific-northwest.html" target="_blank">Avian Flu</a>.<br />
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Carbon, and especially <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_sequestration" target="_blank">carbon dioxide are sequestered</a> in a number of areas on the planet, including in the rocks and in the oceans. Other greenhouse gases, such as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Methane_clathrate" target="_blank">methane</a>, are sequestered in areas such as Arctic Tundra, and in the oceans. The questions remain as to how much capacity does our planet have to sequester carbon, without over stressing the resource with storage demands and whether there is a risk that carbon which has been already sequestered might be released back into the environment.<br />
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An outgassing of carbon dioxide at <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Nyos" target="_blank">Lake Nyos</a> (1986), in Africa, illustrates the problem which can occur with a body of water that is saturated with carbon dioxide. Lake Nyos lies above a pocket of magma and is one of only three lakes saturated with carbon dioxide. Lake Nyos is not the size of the ocean, however.<br />
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It is clear that carbon, and carbon dioxide are keystone issues in addressing global warming and climate change. Global warming is especially sensitive to changes in carbon dioxide, as increases in carbon dioxide can also lead to increases in water vapor in the atmosphere, as indicated by a <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/topics/earth/features/vapor_warming.html" target="_blank">NASA report</a>. Water vapor is the most abundant greenhouse gas. Thus, increases in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere can act in a positive feedback manner to increase the greenhouse effect.<br />
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Just as carbon dioxide is a sensitive indicator in the atmosphere, and may represent a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bifurcation_theory" target="_blank">bifurcation </a>between different climatological paradigms, one pursues, seeks and finds answers as to the equivalent impact that changing carbon dioxide atmospheric concentrations have on the human body, which is also a sensitive indicator of climate change. These findings have implications for Global Health, as well the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychosocial" target="_blank">psychosocial</a> milieu in which mankind experiences climate change.<br />
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These are all very serious issues worthy of further research, consideration and action. The key question is the manner in which homeostasis is achieved, given the climate change issues. <br />
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<br />Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-42589118156924339492015-01-31T22:03:00.000-08:002015-01-31T22:03:03.721-08:00<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhnmxGiihpdX_aFk1zki4C280GjxffYxpWPOPdeoAUkSDy2eXHbUCnYQ-Q-lkrzze6Aol1bKejq0_3yqqd2pEwhb_kWkVWomX-5DVi2F0WG-1uhWyb6NqPuPoqrD-H8NNV4Akii5uUWuU/s1600/Dunstan_20140904_X5H3869.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjhnmxGiihpdX_aFk1zki4C280GjxffYxpWPOPdeoAUkSDy2eXHbUCnYQ-Q-lkrzze6Aol1bKejq0_3yqqd2pEwhb_kWkVWomX-5DVi2F0WG-1uhWyb6NqPuPoqrD-H8NNV4Akii5uUWuU/s1600/Dunstan_20140904_X5H3869.jpg" height="266" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/gallery-image/Seattle-Seahawks-9-4-2014/G0000PbSKkdsld1o/I0000aNqaumMtbTM" target="_blank">Seattle Seahawks vs Green Bay Packers, 9/4/2014</a></div>
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<b>The Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots in the 2015 Super Bowl!</b></div>
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Congratulations to the reigning Seattle Seahawks 2014 Super Bowl Champions and wishing them a victory in front of their home field crowd on February 1, 2015!</div>
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January 31, 2015</div>
Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-4577005318871779812015-01-23T17:24:00.000-08:002015-08-14T11:08:19.094-07:00Avian Flu - H5N1/H5N2/H5N8 - Pacific NorthwestEmergence of Highly Pathenogenic Flu in the Pacific Northwest (H5N1, H5N2 and H5N8)<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvtRrwBHtvc9RiFQgNWCVoYwEsw-09I8-TYgRu09vTnypq0Dng5OWSA8WW2sxBixZVd65D1MtMt4S4dRdYDiV89ZYQdBy7pKeyrnp_ajEC-PMv5eSqikmUa9Sn_mefVh2JFGxjHktrrEw/s1600/Dunstan_20100127_0067.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="266" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjvtRrwBHtvc9RiFQgNWCVoYwEsw-09I8-TYgRu09vTnypq0Dng5OWSA8WW2sxBixZVd65D1MtMt4S4dRdYDiV89ZYQdBy7pKeyrnp_ajEC-PMv5eSqikmUa9Sn_mefVh2JFGxjHktrrEw/s1600/Dunstan_20100127_0067.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/gallery-image/Ducks/G0000AIGB9Xy9SPo/I0000x08YBj7jUAU/C0000M4pNd9MfyFk" target="_blank">Northern Pintail, British Columbia</a></div>
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A Highly Pathenogenic Strain of <a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/avian_influenza/en/" target="_blank">Avian Flu</a> (WHO),<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/h5n1-virus.htm" target="_blank"> H5N1</a>, has appeared in Whatcom County, Washington, in the Pacific Northwest, according to a <a href="http://www.oie.int/wahis_2/public%5C..%5Ctemp%5Creports/en_imm_0000017014_20150121_153712.pdf" target="_blank">report</a> filed by Dr John Clifford, United States Department of Agriculture with the World Organisation for Animal Health (<a href="http://www.oie.int/animal-health-in-the-world/web-portal-on-avian-influenza/" target="_blank">OIE</a>). The report was filed 1/20/2015 for an event starting on 12/29/2014. The incident involved a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green-winged_teal" target="_blank">Green-winged Teal:Anatidae (Anas carolinensis)</a>.<br />
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The H5N1 strain's Eurasian lineage genes ( (PB2, H5, NP, MP) are over 99% identical to a <a href="http://www.oie.int/wahis_2/temp/reports/en_imm_0000016759_20141216_195657.pdf" target="_blank">gyrfalcon H5N8 </a>strain found in Whatcom County. It's North American lineage gene PB1 is 98% identical to a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_pintail" target="_blank">Northern Pintail</a> <a href="http://www.oie.int/wahis_2/temp/reports/en_imm_0000016771_20141216_201444.pdf" target="_blank">H5N2 strain </a>also found in Whatcom County, while other North American lineage genes (PA, N1, NS) are of low pathenogenicity (LPA I), according to the report filed with the <a href="http://www.oie.int/en/animal-health-in-the-world/update-on-avian-influenza/2015/" target="_blank">OIE</a>. This strain is a novel strain, and is different than strains appearing in Asia.<br />
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Discussion by <a href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01211501/H5N1_Fujian_Whatcom.html" target="_blank">Recombinomics</a> raises "the possibility of multiple constellations with the H5N2 sero-type"<br />
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The Pacific Northwest has experienced H5N2 and H5N8 strains during this fall and winter season in bird populations, as indicated by the <a href="http://www.aphis.usda.gov/wps/portal/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/sa_animal_disease_information/!ut/p/a1/jVHLboNADPyWHjjCuoQG0hvkwSPQRIrakr2gJbxWggUtm6D267tBlRJVbRqf7NF47LERRjHCjJxoSQRtGanPNZ4mwcbTHx3QfXc3W4L_8raKrNCcbDxDEvaSMHdtzzBDADAsHfyF4y3MWQTgT-_rhz_Chv_6gzsG6DyaRyXCHRGVSlnRorgnCWG0IXWS0T4nfZ6ccd6MvtE7wj9k3aUjZVfh1lwHOqyfvgm3fI-EG8bk5mXdpuOR9zZLJ5ZckedFznOuHbmEKyG6ZwUUGIZBO2QHrWxPChT1UQH5I8IumXSlppRnvVaJ5je9qu0Fiq90UNe8xp9hsfNVnH4M9sMXu5pWnQ!!/?1dmy&urile=wcm%3apath%3a%2Faphis_content_library%2Fsa_our_focus%2Fsa_animal_health%2Fsa_animal_disease_information%2Fsa_avian_health%2Fct_avian_influenza_disease" target="_blank">US Department of Agriculture</a>.<br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmRkHszxNQHCeMG715_DpPnOiYW3aUoiCmxX9WZF-sAm_fOj7pXm0mJOAiOLND04SKisnNWs1zHp3scaPpEHfNTuo9py_oVAnElulms36CrurnsGrIuSeox382M4GSr7K2PA_AYFttHEE/s1600/Dunstan_20090306_0020.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="262" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjmRkHszxNQHCeMG715_DpPnOiYW3aUoiCmxX9WZF-sAm_fOj7pXm0mJOAiOLND04SKisnNWs1zHp3scaPpEHfNTuo9py_oVAnElulms36CrurnsGrIuSeox382M4GSr7K2PA_AYFttHEE/s1600/Dunstan_20090306_0020.jpg" width="400" /></a></div>
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/gallery-image/Canada/G00006uieb8YxLzY/I0000PlxJkeVG0SI" target="_blank">Mallard, British Columbia</a></div>
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Birds affected by avian flu this fall/winter 2014/5 season have included:<br />
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H5N1: Green-winged Teal, Whatcom County, Washington.<br />
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<a href="https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?hl=en&mid=zv94AJqgUct4.kB0Jt6F7NlIM" target="_blank">H5N2</a>: Northern Pintail (Whatcom County, Washington), Broiler, Table Egg Layer, Turkey, chickens (Southern British Columbia), ducks and geese (Clallam County, Washington), mallard (Fern Ridge, Oregon), falcons (Canyon County, Idaho), turkeys, chicken, guinea fowl, water fowl (Benton County, Washington) .<br />
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<a href="https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?hl=en&mid=zv94AJqgUct4.ktIjI0Pz2tn8" target="_blank">H5N8</a>: guinea fowl, chickens, ducks, geese (Winston, Douglas County, Oregon) , Wild Ducks (Idaho), grylfalcons, American Wigeon. guinea fowl, chickens, ducks and geese (Whatcom County, Washington)<br />
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The distribution of <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?hl=en&mid=zv94AJqgUct4.kB0Jt6F7NlIM" target="_blank">H5N2</a> and <a href="https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?hl=en&mid=zv94AJqgUct4.ktIjI0Pz2tn8" target="_blank">H5N8</a> in the Pacific Northwest shows an interesting pattern. Whatcom County, adjacent to the border between Washington State and British Columbia (Sumas-Lynden border crossing) offers an opportunity for mixing of the various avian flu types, given <a href="http://www.medicalecology.org/diseases/influenza/avianmap_sci_large.jpg" target="_blank">migratory paths</a> and poultry stocks in the area. Other areas of concentration include Benton County, Washington, near Hanford, Washington as well as areas in Oregon and Idaho.<br />
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Avian Flu has a considerable impact on bird populations. There have been limited cases of H5N1 in the human population, although one did occur in 2014 resulting from <a href="http://emergency.cdc.gov/HAN/han00360.asp" target="_blank">a flight</a> from Beijing to Vancouver Canada and on to Edmonton.<br />
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Avian influenza is a disease naturally occurring in wild aquatic birds which can infect domestic poultry and other bird and animal species. It is very difficult for humans to become infected by avian influenza, although there have been some limited human cases. H5N1 is sustained in the avian (bird) population but not is not currently sustained in the human population.<br />
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There has been <a href="http://emergency.cdc.gov/HAN/han00360.asp" target="_blank">one human death from H5N1</a> in North America. On <a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-25662730" target="_blank">December 27, 2013</a>, a woman travelling from Beijing, China, to Vancouver, B.C. and then onto Edmonton, Alberta, Canada, became ill on the Beijing to Vancouver leg of the flight. She was admitted on January 1, 2014 to an Edmonton hospital and died two days later.<br />
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The <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/" target="_blank">Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC</a>) is the lead U.S. Agency for the management of health issues and has information on <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/" target="_blank">Avian Flu</a>.<br />
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Recombinations and reassortments of influenza viruses provide potential opportunity for the development of new strains or of human to human transmission. The occurrence of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1" target="_blank">H5N1</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N2" target="_blank">H5N2</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N8" target="_blank">H5N8</a> in the Pacific Northwest in the fall-winter 2014-5 season raise interesting questions as to the development of the one H5N1 case identified this season and as to whether there is any relationship with the H5N1 death which occurred in the prior (2013-2014) fall-winter season.<br />
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It is interesting to consider various factors which may account for the development of highly pathenogenic avian influenza in the Pacific Northwest. These considerations may involve the locations in which the birds were found, migratory patterns, climate change, environmental factors, and the availability of reservoirs and vectors in which the virus can mix, spread and potentially become sustained in various host or intermediate host various populations. <br />
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<a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/" target="_blank"><b>Marilyn Dunstan Photography</b></a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/gallery-image/Canada/G00006uieb8YxLzY/I0000PlxJkeVG0SI" target="_blank">Mallard Duck Flying</a><br />
<a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/gallery-image/Ducks/G0000AIGB9Xy9SPo/I0000x08YBj7jUAU/C0000M4pNd9MfyFk" target="_blank">Ducks</a><br />
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<b>Centers for Disease Control & Prevention</b>:<br />
<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/" target="_blank">CDC</a><br />
<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/index.htm" target="_blank">CDC-Avian Flu</a><br />
<a href="http://emergency.cdc.gov/HAN/han00360.asp" target="_blank">Human Infection with Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Virus</a><br />
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<b>World Health Organization</b>:<br />
<a href="http://www.who.int/en/" target="_blank">WHO</a><br />
<a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/avian_influenza/en/" target="_blank">WHO-Avian Flu</a><br />
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<b>World Organisation for Animal Health</b> (<a href="http://www.oie.int/animal-health-in-the-world/web-portal-on-avian-influenza/" target="_blank">OIE</a>)<br />
<a href="http://www.oie.int/wahis_2/temp/reports/en_imm_0000016759_20141216_195657.pdf" target="_blank">Gyrfalcon H5N8</a><br />
<a href="http://www.oie.int/wahis_2/temp/reports/en_imm_0000016771_20141216_201444.pdf" target="_blank">Northern Pintail H5N2</a><br />
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<b>US Department of Agriculture </b>(<a href="http://www.aphis.usda.gov/wps/portal/aphis/ourfocus/animalhealth/sa_animal_disease_information/!ut/p/a1/jVHLboNADPyWHjjCuoQG0hvkwSPQRIrakr2gJbxWggUtm6D267tBlRJVbRqf7NF47LERRjHCjJxoSQRtGanPNZ4mwcbTHx3QfXc3W4L_8raKrNCcbDxDEvaSMHdtzzBDADAsHfyF4y3MWQTgT-_rhz_Chv_6gzsG6DyaRyXCHRGVSlnRorgnCWG0IXWS0T4nfZ6ccd6MvtE7wj9k3aUjZVfh1lwHOqyfvgm3fI-EG8bk5mXdpuOR9zZLJ5ZckedFznOuHbmEKyG6ZwUUGIZBO2QHrWxPChT1UQH5I8IumXSlppRnvVaJ5je9qu0Fiq90UNe8xp9hsfNVnH4M9sMXu5pWnQ!!/?1dmy&urile=wcm%3apath%3a%2Faphis_content_library%2Fsa_our_focus%2Fsa_animal_health%2Fsa_animal_disease_information%2Fsa_avian_health%2Fct_avian_influenza_disease" target="_blank">USDA</a>-Avian Flu)<br />
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<b>Flu.gov</b><br />
<a href="http://www.flu.gov/" target="_blank">Flu</a><br />
<a href="http://www.flu.gov/about_the_flu/h5n1/" target="_blank">H5N1</a><br />
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<b>Recombinomics:</b><br />
<a href="http://www.recombinomics.com/News/01211501/H5N1_Fujian_Whatcom.html" target="_blank">Fujian H5N1 Reassortment in Washington</a><br />
<a href="https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?hl=en&mid=zv94AJqgUct4.kB0Jt6F7NlIM" target="_blank">Fujian H5N2 Clade 2.3.4.4 in North America</a><br />
<a href="https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?hl=en&mid=zv94AJqgUct4.ktIjI0Pz2tn8" target="_blank">Fujian H5N8 Clade 2.3.4.4 spread in 2014</a><br />
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<b>BBC News:</b><br />
<a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-25662730" target="_blank">First N America H5N1 Bird Flu Death Confirmed in Canada</a><br />
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<b>Wikipedia:</b><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green-winged_teal" target="_blank">Green-Winged Teal</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Northern_pintail" target="_blank">Northern Pintail</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N1" target="_blank">Influenza Virus Subtype H5N1</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N2" target="_blank">Influenza Virus Subtype H5N2</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H5N8" target="_blank">Influenza Virus Subtype H5N8</a><br />
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<br />Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-48351715909275351812014-11-30T15:32:00.003-08:002014-11-30T15:32:48.346-08:00Climate Change and Global Health<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Storm Surge Flooding, Westport, Washington, November 2009</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Climate Change and Global Health</b></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Climate change poses a number of risks to global health. These risks draw our attention to the fact that health issues operate on a scale that transcends our own individual concerns, extending well beyond local communities, state and national boundaries. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I attended a lecture in February, 2011, by <a href="http://sph.washington.edu/faculty/fac_bio.asp?url_ID=Frumkin_Howard" target="_blank">Dr Howard Frumkin, Dean of the University of Washington School of Public Health </a>on the health risks of climate change. It was an interesting talk, covering many areas where climate change impacts global health. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">These impacts may be associated with the increased frequency of extreme weather events. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Extreme weather events discussed included increased heat, cold, melting, freezing, flooding and droughts. Increased atmospheric instability may give rise to more frequent hurricanes and tornadoes. Extreme weather events can be viewed on various time scales, from 50 to 100 year storms, to events on a more geological time scale.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Heat stress is of particular concern to the elderly, the young and the immune-compromised. Extreme heat, especially in non or inadequately air-conditioned spaces may result in premature mortality during heat waves, in the vulnerable, especially in the city where paved areas draw heat. <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/healthyplaces/articles/urban_sprawl_and_public_health_phr.pdf" target="_blank">Dr Frumkin</a> was concerned about the <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3261978/" target="_blank">"harvesting"</a> effect of heat waves on elderly, urban, populations.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Cold, snow, ice and freezing also may become survivability issues, involving issues of heating and interruption of water and electrical service. Storms may impact travel and thus food supply, transportation of vital supplies to population centers and medical facilities. </span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Public health challenges may emerge with air or water quality issues, impacting respiratory, cardiovascular, and other associated systems. Infectious diseases may spread via the air or water through <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/ncezid/dvbd/" target="_blank">vectors</a> such as tic or mosquitoes, or via <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/24-7/cdcfastfacts/zoonotic.html" target="_blank">zoonotic</a> means through human to animal or animal to human spread). Allergies may develop in response to climate changes, and new pathogens may emerge or spread to different areas.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Air pollution is a problem which affects more than just urban areas. With experience working in the regulatory air quality sector, I realize the widespread impacts that pollutants such as ozone and other pollutants have. Photochemical reactions involving products of combustion (e.g. auto exhaust) take place in the atmosphere resulting in ozone levels downwind of major urban areas. As the reactions involve sunlight and heat, the levels on sunny and hot days increase in the summer.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> In the fall and spring periods of extended air stagnation resulting from stalled high pressure weather systems may increase the respiratory and cardiovascular burden on the vulnerable patient group. Air pollution does not know boundaries, thus residential and industrial pollution from other countries may impact us, as ours impacts theirs. Forest fires add to the impact. Extreme weather may impact all these issues.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The impact of climate change, extreme weather events and public health challenges may impact food production, may result in civil conflict, dislocation of impacted people and may increase the expression of mental health issues .</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The discussion of climate science drives the discussion on public health impacts as projections are made regarding the manner in which changes will take place in Earth's climate systems. Modeling climate systems drives downstream weather and public health challenges. These challenges are studied in a variety of settings, including federal government institutions such as <a href="http://www.noaa.gov/climate.html" target="_blank">NOAA</a>, <a href="http://climate.nasa.gov/" target="_blank">NASA</a> and the <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/climateandhealth/" target="_blank">CDC</a>, and at a variety of state and local governmental and, at private institutions.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> The <a href="http://www.ipcc.ch/" target="_blank">Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change</a> and the <a href="http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/" target="_blank">National Climate Assessment</a> have comprehensive plans reflecting policy in this area.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Extreme weather events can result in significant mortality and morbidity, as well as impacts to property. Tornadoes and Hurricanes and wind storms may result in death and injuries from flying objects, falling trees and power lines as well as medical emergencies secondary to the event. Fires may result from damaged gas lines. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Increased flooding and storm surge may result in drownings and damage to property. Flooding may increased the spread of infectious diseases, problems with sewage systems and interruptions in drinking supplies</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Drought may bring about reductions in food supply. This is a serious issue as crops may be challenged to grow in areas where they were previously able to. Vegetation, vectors and pathogens may spread into other areas as a result of warming. This impacts the latitude at which such impacts occur as well as the altitude above sea level, moving to cooler latitudes and elevations.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">More weeds may develop in urban areas in response to climate change and global warming as vegetation adjusts to the changing environment.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Extreme weather events thus may have public health impacts relating to many systems, resulting in dislocation of people and mental health issues as citizens adjust to the events.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The challenge is how to address climate change issues in the context of these public health issues.</span></div>
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Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-68276829862696182014-11-25T22:51:00.000-08:002014-11-26T14:26:59.013-08:00Ferguson<br />
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What started presumably as a simple theft and an encounter with a marked police car and a uniformed police officer has turned into racial rioting in Ferguson, Missouri and elsewhere around the country. It is a tragedy that an 18 year old African-American young man was shot and killed by a white police officer. This young man had a potential future ahead of him, and whether or not he stole some cigarillos from a store, and whatever his encounter may have been with the officer, it is a tragedy that his life had to end so soon.<br />
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At the same time we consider the actions and state of mind of the police officer in question, who was not indicted, but who will live with his actions for the rest of his life, and who must have gone through his own private and public hell, taking a life in the course of duty. This was a life, going through that tenuous period in early adulthood. But there probably was more to it than that.<br />
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The riots that have followed the incident in Ferguson and the decision by the Grand Jury are an unfortunate commentary on the manner in which society acts to resolve its problems. The issues in this case are complex. The issue goes to the core of what it means to be a police officer in a society where the officer is empowered to use lethal force and must, in some cases, at a moment's notice act to preserve the law and/or to protect his own life and well being.<br />
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How can society understand the lessons of the Michael Brown and apply them better? I will focus on a few broad areas that I feel led to the situation escalating quickly and then spiraling out of control into a series of demonstrations. <br />
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<b>Cognitive Dissonance</b><br />
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One principle is the principle of cognitive dissonance that the police officer has to deal with in his position, whether it be as a beat cop, a patrol officer in a vehicle, or an undercover officer placed in an extraoardinarily difficult position. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cognitive_dissonance" target="_blank"> Cognitive Dissonance</a> according to Wikipedia, is the "mental stress or discomfort discomfort experienced by an individual who holds two or more contradictory beliefs, ideas, or values at the same time, or is confronted by new information that conflicts with existing beliefs, ideas, or values." The officer has to deal with threats to his life, health and well being, as he balances his actions in enforcing the law and in maintaining a civil society. When these issues conflict, it creates cognitive dissonance.<br />
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<b>Bayesian Thought Processes</b><br />
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Another principle the officer has to deal with is <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_probability" target="_blank">"Bayesian Thought Processes"</a>, which refer to a manner in which the brain processes information in order to perceive situations. The brain tends to be programmed in a fashion in order to do forward thinking threat and risk assessment based on prior probabilities, which are conditional. These conditional experiences represent the statistical evaluation of past experience in the brain. If the officer has come to associate the evolution of threats with certain populations, then when a threat situation arises, he will be more likely to act on the basis of that threat when those populations are involved. The associations may relate to personal experience, exposure to media, training or other exposures. The key to solving the problem, is to address these underlying associations. This is a difficult task and it is one that reflect's society's views and prejudices. <br />
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<b>The Marijuana Symbol</b><br />
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Laws are getting more and more complex and this leads by itself to occasions of increased cognitive dissonance for the police officer. An example of this is that the officer noticed a marijuana symbol on the socks of one of the men and that impacted perception. Marijuana laws have become more complex, with some states (Washington and Colorado) legalizing it, while other states and the Federal government consider it illegal. Medical marijuana is allowed in some cases. For example, Missouri allows it for use for intractable epilepsy. These laws by themselves add considerable cognitive dissonance to a police officer who may consider marijuana a 'gateway' drug to other more harmful drugs (and it still may be). It is possible that the marijuana could be used for a medical purpose, a different association entirely. Did Michael Brown have epilepsy? I don't know.<br />
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<b>An Officer's Sense of Space and Safety</b><br />
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The subjects approached the patrol officer's vehicle from behind, endangering the officer's feeling of control over his own space. This was probably the key element in the confrontation.<br />
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The race and age of the subjects in question, and the perception that they may be subjects in a robbery the officer had heard about probably also contributed to the officer's sense of personal safety. The issue in question, with the demonstrations, however, is the extent to which the officer's perception of risk to his personal safety was based on preconceptions based on race, which may have influenced the outcome. <br />
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<b>The Subject's Behavior and the Officer's Behavior</b><br />
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The officer missed one vital point, the subject's behavior. If Michael Brown had committed a theft, as it appeared, then why did he challenge the police officer? Was he guided by outside forces to act in a manner inimical to his own feelings of safety? Was his intent to be caught? He challenged the police officer when his safest approach would have been to simply avoid the situation. Is it possible that the police officer's reaction, when threatened (by being surprised in his vehicle), triggered past memories of racial harassment in Michael Brown? Did an emotional memory of a past event trigger an action to challenge rather than avoid conflict (fight or flight?). At the age of eighteen, a number of issues could have been involved, including unknown existential issues.<br />
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Did Michael Brown attempt to surrender and the officer fail to recognize it for some reason? Why?<br />
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<b>Perception of Police and Justice System</b><br />
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The issue in the community becomes the perception of the public towards the police and the justice system as they examine the various roles in a tragedy of a life that ended too soon and the feelings of the police themselves.<br />
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How to fix this? It is a good idea for people to have some understanding of police thought processes, especially understanding their concern about protecting their firearms and their physical space.<br />
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Police responses are to a certain extent wired into them by training, as in many fields. Police need to be trained to act very quickly in risky situations, something not necessarily true of all professions. In fact many of these hardwired thought processes are what have kept them safe in their jobs, so that seeking to change perceptions of police officers is fraught with many challenges, some of which involve the issues of cognitive dissonance alluded to above.<br />
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So the mystery of Michael Brown remains, how do you solve the problem? You can educate the public, but the public is such a large body to educate. This is a challenge. Police training needs to continue to incorporate the importance of psychological factors, perceptions, including the types of issues discussed above.<br />
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It is very possible that the subjects anomalous behavior led to a situation of cognitive dissonance in the officer where it generated a 'fight or flight' situation that the officer reacted to and resolved with his training and his capability to protect himself from potential harm. It's possible the officer resolved the anomalous situation as only a challenge to his authority when there were other factors as well. Time will tell as analysis of the situation proceeds.<br />
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One thing we do know, and that is suppressing a vulnerable, poor and disadvantaged population can have impacts that reverberate beyond the immediate situation in question.<br />
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It is difficult to comment on the legal tactics employed with the grand jury proceeding. The results speak for themselves.<br />
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A community mourns and it is time to heal and try to fix the problems.<br />
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<br />Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-47367375538213037392014-11-20T12:22:00.000-08:002015-08-14T10:35:02.466-07:00Ebola<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
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Raudfjorden Beach, Svalbard, Norway</div>
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The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ebola_virus_disease" target="_blank">Ebola</a> outbreak has proven to a challenge for worldwide heatlh leaders. The <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/" target="_blank">CDC</a> has information about <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/" target="_blank">Ebola</a> on its website, as does the <a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/" target="_blank">World Health Organization (WHO)</a>. The CDC information is delineated into a number of topical areas of interest to subject audiences. I'm interested in the etiology of Ebola, its transmission, and issues surrounding its current outbreak.<br />
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My interest in Ebola began during my actuarial career, reading the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hot_Zone" target="_blank">"Hot Zone"</a> , a 1994 non-fiction book about incidents involving viral hemorrhagic fevers, including ebolaviruses and marbug viruses. The memory of the book stayed with me since I was reading it while sailing down the west coast of Vancouver Island in 15 foot swells in a sailing vessel. I can recall eating copious amounts of ginger cookies to ward off seasickness as I read of hemorrhagic fevers killing off people very quickly, in a very bloody and gory fashion, as all the while I was lurching back and forth in the sea and swell on the Pacific Ocean. The ginger cookies did their job and the memory is etched in my experience, gone but not forgotten, as Ebola emerges again, this time, expressed in the news of an outbreak.<br />
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These hemorrhagic diseases killed off people before they had a chance to spread extensively, and, were confined to certain areas in Africa and mostly away from major population centers.<br />
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<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/index.html?s_cid=cs_284" target="_blank">According to the CDC</a>, the virus can be spread through direct contact with blood and body fluids of a person infected with Ebola, with objects such as syringes infected with Ebola and infected fruit bats or primates. The question remains as to factors impacting the geographical distribution of Ebola, how it independently arises, factors of etiology and its potential spread elsewhere.<br />
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The recent upswing in the Ebola virus prompted me to question its etiology, transmission and other issues. For example, because of the increase in number of cases, I wondered if the virus had recombined with another virus to increase its transmission and decrease its mortality, or if there were other factors. In this blog article I consider a number of issues, and raise some questions relating to the virus.<br />
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<b>Etiology</b><br />
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<li>Does Ebola predate the AIDs/SIV/HIV viruses and does it provide some idea of the origin of these viruses? The <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/index.html?s_cid=cs_284" target="_blank">CDC expresses</a> that it does not know the origin of the original host of the Ebola Virus; It is interesting to study the context of the Ebola virus regarding its emergence out of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinshasa_Highway" target="_blank">Kinshasha Highway</a> across the Congo into Uganda as discussed in "The Hot Zone". Did the virus have origins in bat habitats such as caves, rock, lava tubes, environments exposed to varying bacteria and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archaea" target="_blank">archaea</a>?</li>
<li>The Ebola virus is a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sense_(molecular_biology)" target="_blank">negative sense RNA virus</a>. The production of proteins from a negative sense RNA virus require first the production of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messenger_RNA" target="_blank">Messenger RNA (mRNA)</a> and then proteins from mRNA. Ebola does not have <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reverse_transcriptase" target="_blank">reverse transcriptase</a>, which would ordinarily be needed to enable insertion of its genetic contents into the DNA. Is its 'purpose' then to directly produce mRNA (messenger RNA), and why? Research has shown that the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filoviridae" target="_blank">filoviruses</a> behind Ebola are very old and that there is direct insertion of genetic content with indications of evolutionary divergence a long time ago. - <a href="http://phys.org/news196925610.html" target="_blank">The Lin Edwards article, "Ebola and Marburg viruses may be much older than thought"</a> discusses this subject.</li>
<li>Does the Ebola virus relate to issues concerning <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_World_monkey" target="_blank">New World Monkeys</a> and Old World Monkeys and the divergence of the two species? If so, would this tend to indicate the same type of environmental conditions that may have existed at the time of that divergence?</li>
<li>What is the <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/distribution-map.html" target="_blank">distribution of the virus</a>? Does the virus act with regards to specific populations, affecting certain populations in a negative or positive way, and leaving others untouched. What factors in these populations would account for the outbreak? Are other populations at risk?</li>
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<b>Transmission</b></div>
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<ul>
<li>Did the Ebola virus recombine with another virus (for example the <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/mers/" target="_blank">Corona Mers Virus</a> , Seasonal Flu Virus or enteroviruses) to allow it to decrease its mortality rate and increase its transmission? Is it continuing to do so and would further recombination with the current seasonal flu change it further along these lines? </li>
<li>A subject of interest to is transmission of Ebola from the natural host to a target population. Is Ebola being expressed, sustained within the target population or being sequestered? Does this imply sequestration in a host for transmission or expression later under circumstances that may enable it to be used as a regulatory operator or a mediator of group identity or expression of immunity systems? Is it developing a symbiotic relationship with the host or another virus in a toxin/anti-toxin sort of manner (discussed by my blog article on Dr Luis Villarreal and his work on <a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1491610240501676289#editor/target=post;postID=7035716747846729253;onPublishedMenu=posts;onClosedMenu=posts;postNum=5;src=postname" target="_blank">group identity systems</a>)? How does this concept explain the existence of this virus in a reservoir species?</li>
<li>What is the risk for the spread of Ebola? To what extent is the risk environmental and to what extent can it be transmitted from person to person? </li>
<li>Is Ebola being transmitted in a less than lethal form under our eyes without our knowledge?</li>
<li>Can Ebola be spread by more species of animals than listed under the CDC website? </li>
<li>How might Ebola change to become more transmissible to a greater variety of populations impacted by different environmental factors? How would this risk change if the Ebola virus were to combine with the seasonal flu in a variety of different ways?</li>
</ul>
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
</div>
<div>
<b>Geological Factors</b></div>
<div>
<ul>
<li>What factors in Africa are most significant in the etiology of Ebola? Heat, humidity, coeexistence with and diversity of animal species, alkaline environments, carbon dioxide sequestration and outgassing (e.g. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Nyos" target="_blank">Lake Nyos</a>), the <a href="http://books.google.com/books?id=YBDbdZrHosMC&pg=PA25&lpg=PA25&dq=archaean+basement+WEST+AFRICA&source=bl&ots=bEMNmEAxfg&sig=rx8NKbMc0DUIne2ZCKmbPuzDCE0&hl=en&sa=X&ei=pjRtVPT4BOGrjALl5YGACg&ved=0CCkQ6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q=archaean%20basement%20WEST%20AFRICA&f=false" target="_blank">Archaean basement</a> substrate of the West African bedrock, granite, uranium, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endospore" target="_blank">endospores</a> such as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bacillus_anthracis" target="_blank">bacillus anthracis</a>, and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_nuclear_fission_reactor" target="_blank">natural nuclear fission reactors</a> from underground uranium (Gabon)? </li>
<li>What is the impact of the African mining fields? Iron, gold, lead, silver, arsenic, mercury , uranium and nickel are among products of mining. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nickel" target="_blank">Nickel</a> has a positive feedback impact on inflammatory markers. </li>
<li>How do endospores such as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bacillus_anthracis" target="_blank">bacillus anthracis</a> fit into the story of Ebola, set in the mining context of West Africa, with its iron, gold, silver, arsenic, uranium, nickel and mercury, and the expression of inflammatory markers and <a href="http://www.jove.com/visualize/abstract/24366872/anthrax-lethal-toxin-inhibits-translation-hypoxia-inducible-factor-1" target="_blank">feedback indicators</a>?</li>
<li>Are these various environmental issues constrained to Africa or are they present in other environments, and where do other similar environmental conditions exist? Do these conditions have to exist in the same place or can an individual experience them by exposure to a variety of locations? For example, Archaean basement layers of rock exist in the Arctic, in Svalbard, which I visited in 2005. How would exposure to Archaea and other factors present in West Africa differ from the situation in Svalbard where it is much colder! Where else can we find archaea and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chirality" target="_blank">chiral</a> substances?</li>
<li>How do increases in<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunlight" target="_blank"> solar radiation</a> and changes in the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth's_magnetic_field" target="_blank">Earth's magnetic field</a> impact the expression of Ebola in Africa? To what extent would these factors affect the expression of Ebola in other areas of the planet?</li>
</ul>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Environment and Physiology</b></div>
</div>
<ul>
<li> Does the emergence of a disease that promotes bleeding have significance as it relates to climate change or other planetary or environmental factors? Is some environmental change occurring that would result in blood clotting more easily, something that would need to be countered by less viscous blood and changes in the coagulation cascade?</li>
<li>How might the environmental factors in Africa affect blood coagulation? Through mitochondrial regulation as it is impacted by environment, haplogroups and uncoupling in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxidative_phosphorylation" target="_blank">oxidative phosphorylation</a>? Through the impacts of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reactive_oxygen_species" target="_blank">oxygen reactive species</a>? Through solar radiation, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_storm" target="_blank">geomagnetic storms</a> and cycles? Through the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warburg_effect" target="_blank">Warburg effect</a> (which replaces aerobic respiration with <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glycolysis" target="_blank">glycolysis</a>)? Through arsenic mining? Through positive feedback mechanisms involving hypoxemia and inflammatory responses? </li>
<li>Is it possible that the Archaean basement layer of rock in West Africa impacts the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coagulation" target="_blank">blood coagulation cascade </a> and the blood vasculature through <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chirality" target="_blank">chirality</a>? Would concepts of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractal_dimension" target="_blank">fractal dimension</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tortuosity" target="_blank">tortuosity</a> explain concepts of blood coagulation and vascular inflammation and other disorders, including stroke and cancers, including those of the blood and lymphatic systems? </li>
<li>What impact does the water people drink (and breathe through water vapor) impact people, including the impact on group identity systems and physiological parameters?</li>
<li>Does the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outgassing" target="_blank">outgassing </a> of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_sequestration" target="_blank">carbon dioxide</a> as a result of global warming, the release of iron from iron sequestered in the rock, and the release of endospores from sequestration, explain any of the natural events happening today, as regards vascular and coagulation issues?</li>
<li>Is it possible that Ebola, as a disorder that promotes bleeding, developed as a feedback mechanism to counter the impact of increased blood coagulation due to the environmental impacts raised above? </li>
<li> Bleeding may increase as blood coagulation factors are used up; does Ebola act to promote such bleeding to counter increases in clotting factors secondary to these environmental issues? Is it possible that Ebola thus impacts the regulatory mechanisms of the coagulation cascade?</li>
</ul>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>Detection</b></div>
<ul>
<li>Could an easy detection test be done for Ebola using, for example, saliva? This might prove less expensive and easier to measure for initial testing prior to full blood workups if it was sufficiently sensitive and specific.</li>
<li>Could the d-dimer test and PPT tests be used as early indicators of Ebola.</li>
<li>Can a series of early indicators, including markers of respiratory and coagulation system function and exposure to certain environmental factors, be developed to ascertain risk patterns for specific populations? </li>
<li>Where might the solution to Ebola be found? Only time will tell. Are<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1491610240501676289#editor/target=post;postID=2447639645100661909;onPublishedMenu=posts;onClosedMenu=posts;postNum=0;src=postname" target="_blank"> lamprey VLR's</a> a potential solution for isolating, detecting, and finding a cure for Ebola, considering their ability to <a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/106/31/12891.full" target="_blank">detect bacillus anthracis </a>and their affinity for carbohydrate glycoproteins? Considering the age of the filoviruses and the characteristics of <a href="http://www-als.lbl.gov/index.php/contact/163-structure-of-the-ebola-virus-glycoprotein-bound-to-an-antibody-from-a-human-survivor.html" target="_blank">Ebola</a> itself, is this a potential area to investigate?</li>
</ul>
<div>
<br /></div>
<b>Summary</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Does the emergence of Ebola reflect the re-emergence of ancient historical patterns? Have these patterns been carried by reservoir species from the depths of time to the particular victims of Ebola? Will Ebola adapt and spread elsewhere or re-emerge in other parts of the planet, independently?<br />
<br />
Are the issues happening in West Africa an early indicator ('<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_sentinel#" target="_blank">Canary in a Coal Mine</a>') of planetary changes? These changes include changes in Earth's<a href="http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2003/29dec_magneticfield/" target="_blank"> magnetic field</a>, climate change, global warming and solar radiation, and downstream effects including release of sequestered minerals and gases such as carbon dioxide and methane from rock and oceans. These are all areas of concern. Historical examples of changes in Earth's magnetic field are shown over <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth's_magnetic_field#mediaviewer/File:Geomagnetic_polarity_late_Cenozoic.svg" target="_blank">longer periods</a> of time and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth's_magnetic_field#mediaviewer/File:Brunhes_geomagnetism_western_US.png" target="_blank">more recent geologic time periods</a> in this Wikipedia article on the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_magnetic_field" target="_blank">Earth's Magnetic Field</a>.<br />
<br />
Finally, I am reminded of the childhood game, "Animal, vegetable or mineral" and associations with the "Tree of Life" (and probably, by extension, "The Tree of Good and Evil"). Ebola is a disease with a past, reflecting deep phylogeny and the rivers of time as embedded in the history of our rocks.<br />
<br />
<b>Sources:</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>marilyndunstan.blogspot.com</b><br />
<a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1491610240501676289#editor/target=post;postID=2447639645100661909;onPublishedMenu=posts;onClosedMenu=posts;postNum=0;src=postname" target="_blank">Evolution of Adaptive Immunity</a><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Wikipedia:</b><br />
<a href="http://marilyn%20jean%20stapp%20dunstan%2C%20fbi%2C%20cia%2C%20treasury%2015405%20des%20moines%20mem%20dr%20/#N201 Burien, WA 98148 206.464.2890" target="_blank">Ebola virus disease</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Hot_Zone" target="_blank">"The Hot Zone"</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinshasa_Highway" target="_blank">Kinshasha Highway</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archaea" target="_blank">Archaea</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sense_(molecular_biology)" target="_blank">Sense (molecular biology)</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Messenger_RNA" target="_blank">Messenger RNA</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reverse_transcriptase" target="_blank">Reverse Transcriptase</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Filoviridae" target="_blank">Filoviridae</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_World_monkey" target="_blank">New World Monkey</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lake_Nyos" target="_blank">Lake Nyos</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endospore" target="_blank">Endospore</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bacillus_anthracis" target="_blank">Bacillus Anthracis</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natural_nuclear_fission_reactor" target="_blank">Natural nuclear fission reactor</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nickel" target="_blank">Nickel</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chirality" target="_blank">Chirality</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sunlight" target="_blank">Sunlight</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_magnetic_field" target="_blank">Earth's Magnetic Field</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxidative_phosphorylation" target="_blank">Oxidative Phosphorylation</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reactive_oxygen_species" target="_blank">Reactive Oxygen Species</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_storm" target="_blank">Geomagnetic Storm</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warburg_effect" target="_blank">Warburg Effect</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glycolysis" target="_blank">Glycolysis</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coagulation" target="_blank">Coagulation Cascade</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractal_dimension" target="_blank">Fractal Dimension</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tortuosity" target="_blank">Tortuosity</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outgassing" target="_blank">Outgassing</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_sequestration" target="_blank">Carbon Sequestion</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Animal_sentinel#" target="_blank">Animal Sentinel</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_magnetic_field#mediaviewer/File:Geomagnetic_polarity_late_Cenozoic.svg" target="_blank">Earth's Magnetic Field-Geomagnetic Polarity</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_magnetic_field#mediaviewer/File:Brunhes_geomagnetism_western_US.png" target="_blank">Earth's Magnetic Field-Brunhes Geomagnetism</a><br />
<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_magnetic_field" target="_blank">Earth's Magnetic Field</a><br />
<br />
<b>World Health Organization:</b><br />
<a href="http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs103/en/" target="_blank">Ebola Virus Disease</a><br />
<br />
<b>CDC:</b><br />
<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/" target="_blank">CDC</a><br />
<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/transmission/index.html?s_cid=cs_284" target="_blank">Ebola (Ebola Virus Disease</a><br />
<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/outbreaks/2014-west-africa/distribution-map.html" target="_blank">2014 Ebola Outbreak in West Africa</a> (Outbreak Distribution Map)<br />
<br />
<b>Phys Org: </b><br />
<a href="http://phys.org/news/2010-06-ebola-marburg-viruses-older-thought.html" target="_blank">Ebola and Marburg Viruses May be Much Older Than Thought</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://anthrax%20lethal%20toxin%20inhibits%20translation%20of%20hypoxia%20inducible%20factor%201/?%20and%20causes%20decreased%20tolerance%20to%20hypoxic%20stress." target="_blank">JoVE Visualize: <span style="background-color: white; font-family: Roboto;">Anthrax lethal toxin inhibits translation of hypoxia inducible factor 1? and causes decreased tolerance to hypoxic stress</span></a><br />
<br />
<a href="https://books.google.com/books?id=YBDbdZrHosMC&pg=PA25&lpg=PA25&dq=archaean+basement+WEST+AFRICA&source=bl&ots=bEMNmEAxfg&sig=rx8NKbMc0DUIne2ZCKmbPuzDCE0&hl=en&sa=X&ei=pjRtVPT4BOGrjALl5YGACg&ved=0CCkQ6AEwAQ#v=onepage&q=archaean%20basement%20WEST%20AFRICA&f=false" target="_blank">Geology and Mineral Resources of West Africa - The Archaean Basement</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www.pnas.org/content/106/31/12891.full" target="_blank">National Academy of Sciences: High-affinity lamprey VLRA and VLRB monoclonal antibodies</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://www-als.lbl.gov/index.php/contact/163-structure-of-the-ebola-virus-glycoprotein-bound-to-an-antibody-from-a-human-survivor.html" target="_blank">Berkeley Lab: Structure of the Ebola Virus Glycoprotein Bound to an Antibody from a Human Survivor</a><br />
<br />
<a href="http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2003/29dec_magneticfield/" target="_blank">NASA Science News - Earth's Inconsistent Magnetic Field</a><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-24476396451006619092014-11-03T19:37:00.000-08:002014-11-03T19:38:45.133-08:00Evolution of Adaptive Immunity<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJb2zVtQNirM9LKliyQ8EO-oAn1f3RWuV14agcnCIV7jasLPj7Ibn3MYZOfU96Yh7vOxTxGRjLrBJGPUs_NJrWbqI_gRK8yAEDxX-ykSdfRflawj_fJYRHmZciZbBrNTFDJroMwLCfLuM/s1600/Dunstan_20110126_X5H0640frarndsnd.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiJb2zVtQNirM9LKliyQ8EO-oAn1f3RWuV14agcnCIV7jasLPj7Ibn3MYZOfU96Yh7vOxTxGRjLrBJGPUs_NJrWbqI_gRK8yAEDxX-ykSdfRflawj_fJYRHmZciZbBrNTFDJroMwLCfLuM/s1600/Dunstan_20110126_X5H0640frarndsnd.jpg" height="266" width="400" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Two Trees (creative digital image)</b></div>
<br />
I attended a "Weiser Endowed Lecture in Immunology" featuring <a href="http://pathology.emory.edu/AdminFacultyMember.cfm?Name_seq=1576" target="_blank">Dr Max Cooper</a> of the Emory University School of Medicine, speaking on <a href="http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0092867406001528" target="_blank">"Evolution of adaptive immunity"</a> at the University of Washington in 2012. Dr Cooper's work is foundational in this subject area.<br />
<br />
It is interesting that immunity systems follow a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phylogenetics">phylogenetic</a> pathway much as the phylogeny of species themselves do. The evolutionary pathway of jawless vertebrates (of whom hagfish and lampreys are surviving members), possess differences in comparison to the common evolutionary pathway followed by other vertebrates.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lamprey" target="_blank">Lampreys</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hagfish" target="_blank">hagfish</a> do not possess a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thymus" target="_blank">thymus</a> , nor do they possess a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spleen" target="_blank">spleen</a>. Lampreys and hagfish do not possess <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_histocompatibility_complex" target="_blank">Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) 1 or 2</a>, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T-cell_receptor" target="_blank">T-cell receptors</a> or <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recombination-activating_gene">recombination activating genes (RAG 1 and 2)</a> which play an active role in the recombination of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/T_cell" target="_blank">T-cell</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody" target="_blank">immunoglobulin</a> receptors. Lampreys and hagfish posses <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Haematopoiesis" target="_blank">hematopoietic</a> tissue, the former in the intestine and the latter in the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hepatic_portal_vein" target="_blank">portal vein</a>. With these changes, the lampreys and hagfish diverged off the common immune system evolutionary pathway prior to the development of certain MHC class immunity in other species. This is an important benchmark due to the major role that the MHC class plays in vertebrates. It is a vital aspect which makes the concept of a separate phylogenetic pathway earmarked for the immune system so interesting. If lampreys do not possess a thymus, then what substitutes in its place?<br />
<br />
Lampreys and hagfish utilize a system of<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leucine-rich_repeat" target="_blank"> leucine-rich repeats</a> )(LRR's) to mediate immune system responses using <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variable_lymphocyte_receptor" target="_blank">Variable Lymphocyte Receptor (VLRs)</a>, (VLRA's, VLRB's and VLRC's). The interesting aspect of the jawless vertebrate immune system function is comparing its action in structure and function to the immune systems we are familiar with. VLRB's have structures similar to<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toll-like_receptor" target="_blank"> toll like receptors </a>(proteins that play a key role in the innate immune system), while their functions are similar to those of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antibody" target="_blank">antibodies</a>, and they possess <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Humoral_immunity" target="_blank">humoral</a> characteristics (using macromolecules in extracellular fluids in immunity systems). They act using discrete populations of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lymphocyte" target="_blank">lymphocytes</a> (types of white blood cells) .<br />
<br />
VLRBs act as an adaptive immune system and can differentiate foreign from self in recognizing lymphocytes.<br />
<br />
Lampreys posses a diverse variety of leucine-rich repeats which code for <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Germline" target="_blank">germline</a> and mature genes. They possess a specificity for carbohydrate and protein receptors on bacterial and mammalian cells. They bind antigens with high <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avidity" target="_blank">avidity</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ligand_(biochemistry)#Receptor.2Fligand_binding_affinity"><span id="goog_591938377"></span>affinity</a>, describing the binding capacity of multiple versus single interactions of antibodies with antigenic epitopes.<br />
<br />
In "<a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3901013/">Evolutionary implications of a third lymphocyte lineage in lamprey</a>", the authors find a thymoid source for VLRA and VLRC assembly in the lamprey gill tips, while VLRB assembly occurs in hematopoietic typhosole and kidney tissues. VLRC appeared more numerous than VLRA, and predominated in the skin. They conclude that a similar body plan of two T-cell type lymphocytes in a thymoid type structure and one B-cell type lymphocyte in the blood and kidneys shows some similarity in basic structure to the immune system for jawed vertebrate, while achieving adaptive immunity through different means.<br />
<br />
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monoclonal_antibody" target="_blank">Monclonal VLRB antibodies</a> from immunized lamprey larvae can recognize plasma cells from <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_myeloma" target="_blank">myeloma</a> patients. VLR4, a monoclonal VLRB specific for BclA, the bacillus collagen-like protein, has shown to be specific for B. Anthracis spores. Information on B. Anthracis can be obtained from the US Centers for Disease Control (<a href="http://www.cdc.gov/">CDC</a>) <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/anthrax/">CDC - Anthrax</a> and the World Health Organization (<a href="http://www.who.int/en/">WHO</a>) <a href="http://www.who.int/csr/disease/Anthrax/en/">WHO - Anthrax</a>.<br />
<br />
Research indicates a number of applications where VLR's can recognize certain<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immunogen" target="_blank"> immumogens</a> An immunogen is any antigen that is capable of inducing humoral and/or cell-mediated immune response rather than <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Immune_tolerance">immunological tolerance</a>. These applications include diagnosis, research and bioterrorism investigations.<br />
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</div>
Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-9246653506603382942014-10-27T13:19:00.000-07:002014-11-01T20:42:55.892-07:00PANSPERMIA and EVOLUTION<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCVwL_lHxx1OnrlmL3BOqpLMP3dz9KcOYglfxlQHiyM4UJUkgHQsvw7X50AGQO8o8CeCjcmH0RmRKLlh9QrE50_cKywerzwuBiajcpA8F9goYGm9wzVhXrGATQ-rWuPlbsWCczn4M8f-U/s1600/PIA15038_SpiritLander_ESP_025815_1655.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiCVwL_lHxx1OnrlmL3BOqpLMP3dz9KcOYglfxlQHiyM4UJUkgHQsvw7X50AGQO8o8CeCjcmH0RmRKLlh9QrE50_cKywerzwuBiajcpA8F9goYGm9wzVhXrGATQ-rWuPlbsWCczn4M8f-U/s1600/PIA15038_SpiritLander_ESP_025815_1655.jpg" height="267" width="400" /></a></div>
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<div style="text-align: center;">
<b>Mars Spirit Lander and Bonneville Crater in Color</b></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
<b> Image Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Univ. of Arizona </b></div>
<br />
<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panspermia" target="_blank">Panspermia</a> is a concept which portrays how life might be distributed throughout the universe. These means include a wide variety of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Astronomical_object" target="_blank">astronomical</a> or celestrial objects including meteors, comets, asteroids, and factors such as the solar wind. The theory of panspermia, however does not really address how life began in the first place.<br />
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As man has ventured out into space, with human space travel, or has used unmanned spaceflight, the issue of man (or machine) as a vector or agent of panspermia has become an issue. This issue parallels the concept of jet travel and airports as a vector in spreading contagion. Migratory birds have been vectors for centuries, landing in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Qinghai_Lake" target="_blank">Qinghai Lake</a>, China, a saline and alkaline lake and migratory crossroads or in the <a href="http://ak.audubon.org/izembek-national-wildlife-refuge" target="_blank">Izembek National Wildlife Refuge</a> in Alaska, along the Bering Sea. . Such bird migratory pathways provide fertile ground for recombination and spread of various contagions.<br />
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The <a href="http://www.nasa.gov/" target="_blank">NASA</a> photo of the <a href="http://mars.nasa.gov/mer/gallery/press/spirit/20120208a.html" target="_blank">Bonneville Crater and Mars Spirit Lander</a> depicts an impact crater on <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars" target="_blank">Mars</a>. Such an impact would have created a large amount of energy upon impact. Many theories of life involve the discussion of how reorganization and complexity arises as energy is input into a system. The <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Miller%E2%80%93Urey_experiment" target="_blank">Miller and Urey experiment in 1953 </a>attempted to address this issue through <a href="http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/notrocketscience/2011/03/21/scientists-finish-a-53-year-old-classic-experiment-on-the-origins-of-life/#.VE6b6vl4orZ" target="_blank">recreation of a primordial atmosphere</a> laced with water, methane and lightning storms.<br />
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<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Eyring_(chemist)" target="_blank">Henry Eyring</a>, a chemist, discovered <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transition_state_theory" target="_blank">Actual Rate Theory or Transition State Theory</a>, which discusses reaction rates of chemicals in the context of potential energy states, complexes activated by chemical reactions, entropy considerations and products formed by the chemical reaction. In considering the input of exogenous energy into a system, this theory would be important in examining the potential reactions that might take place, as the reaction may change the system through transformational change.<br />
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In considering the issue of panspermia, therefore, there are a couple of issues; the development of a system and then the spread of that system. Issues of energy and mixing concern the development or the boot-strapping of a system through transformational change, while panspermia addresses the spread. Where panspermia occurs through media that spread via impact, the two issues (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bootstrapping" target="_blank">bootstrapping</a> and spread) tend to co-exist to some extent.<br />
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The concept of panspermia requires a vector that is resilient. It must be able to adapt to environmental factors such as extremes of temperature, must be able to resist impact as well as radiation and other factors such as high levels of salinity. Such organisms, <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Extremophile" target="_blank">extremophiles </a> fit a profile as a candidate for panspermia.<br />
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<b>Santa Catalina Mountains seen from Saguaro National Park, Arizona</b></div>
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Recently, I came across an article in Applied and Environmental Microbiology (AEM) on<a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1449054/" target="_blank"> Bacillus Endospores</a>, written by Patricia Fajardo-Cavazos and Wayne Nicholson, "Bacillus <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endospore" target="_blank">Endospores</a> Isolated from Granite: Close Molecular Relationships to Globally Distributed Bacillus spp. from Endolithic and Extreme Environments". This article discusses the issue of the diversity of Bacillus spp. populations, and specifically certain <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endolith%20spore" target="_blank">endolithic spore populations</a> obtained from near surface granite from the Santa Catalina mountains near Tucson, Arizona.<br />
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An endospore is a tough non-reproductive surface that lies dormant for an extended period of time, and can be later revived after many years to a vegetative state.<br />
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<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anthrax" target="_blank">Anthrax</a> is a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bacillus" target="_blank">bacillus</a>, and may exist in the dormant state as an endospore. According to a <a href="http://www.who.int/csr/resources/publications/anthrax_webs.pdf" target="_blank">World Health Organization document</a> on studies of anthrax endospores (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bacillus_anthracis" target="_blank">bacillus anthracis</a>), "<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spore" target="_blank">Sporulation</a> requires the presence of free oxygen. In the natural situation, this means the vegetative cycles occur within the low oxygen environment of the infected host and, within the host, the organism is exclusively in the vegetative form. Once outside the host, sporulation commences upon exposure to the air and the spore forms are essentially the exclusive phase in the environment." Spores are thus spread by release of spores by the dying host into the environment where they are taken up by another animal.<br />
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The focus of the AEM article is on the very issue of panspermia, the issue of transference of microbes through spaceflight, It concerns the measurement of characteristics of various endolithic spore populations obtained through a variety of near surface <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Granite" target="_blank">granites</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basalt" target="_blank">basalts</a> and even the ultra clean environments of spacecraft assembly facilities.<br />
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Blue <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fluorescence" target="_blank">fluorescence</a> obtained through medium wavelength UV illumination, distinguished certain endospores obtained from near surface granites. Endospores were grouped into species or strains based on their<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ribosomal_RNA" target="_blank"> rRNA</a> gene sequences. Numbers and diversity of endospores from granite were greater than those obtained from basalts. This may be due to the lower <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Porosity" target="_blank">porosity</a> of basalt versus granite. Limited subsets of Bacillus spp. appeared to occur in certain rock environments that favored them and not other strains. Certain bacillus strains (bacillus subtilis) were used as proxies for bacillus anthracis fluorescence properties in the study.<br />
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The issue of panspermia is a very important one, set in the context of space exploration and in consideration of how extraterrestrial impacts may have impacted (and may still be impacting) human life. The AEM study provides interesting results as to the diversity and characteristics of Bacillus spp. from a variety of environments, including, importantly, granite, set in the context of fluorescence properties. A bacillus such as anthrax, as studied by the <a href="http://www.who.int/en/" target="_blank">World Health Organization (WHO) </a>or the <a href="http://www.cdc.gov/anthrax/" target="_blank">CDC</a> may provide clues as to how bacillus and endospores fit into our evolutionary framework.<br />
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<br />Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-45135713786265020002014-10-21T20:13:00.000-07:002014-11-29T20:10:36.816-08:00Trinity Nuclear Test<br />
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Bosque del Apache National Wildlife Refuge</div>
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near San Antonio, New Mexico</div>
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On July 16, 1945, the first atomic bomb test was performed at a site about 35 southeast of Soccorro, New Mexico. The test was code named <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trinity_(nuclear_test)" target="_blank">'Trinity</a>' by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Robert_Oppenheimer" target="_blank">Dr Robert Oppenheimer</a>, director of the Los Alamos Laboratory involved in the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manhattan_Project" target="_blank">Manhattan Project</a>. It used a 20 kiloton Plutonium implosion device, of a similar design to what would ultimately be dropped over Nagasaki on August 9, 1945, less than a month later. The Manhattan Project was a war-time effort to develop an atomic bomb, which occurred over a time period from 1942 to 1946. The effort extended to a number of facilities, including <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanford_Site" target="_blank">Hanford</a>, Washington and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oak_Ridge_National_Laboratory" target="_blank">Oak Ridge</a>, Tennessee in addition to the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Los_Alamos_National_Laboratory" target="_blank">Los Alamos</a>, New Mexico site where major design work occurred. Ultimately testing would be done in a number of areas, including Nevada and the Pacific Islands, including <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bikini_Atoll" target="_blank">Bikini Atoll</a>, after World War II.<br />
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The Trinity test differed in nature from that used on the first atomic blast at Hiroshima. The Hiroshima blast used a gun type, or projectile type detonation of uranium while the Nagasaki and Trinity Blast involved implosion of a plutonium core.<br />
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The Trinity atomic bomb test followed a period of development of nuclear expertise in a number of areas, from study of the atom itself, to study of high energy collisions and the study of nuclear chain reactions. A key development was a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Einstein%E2%80%93Szil%C3%A1rd_letter" target="_blank">letter</a> by physicists <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Le%C3%B3_Szil%C3%A1rd" target="_blank">Eugene Szilard</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Einstein" target="_blank">Albert Einstein</a>, expressing their concern that Germany could develop an atomic bomb. The result of their efforts, which included collaborations with other physicists such as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eugene_Wigner" target="_blank">Eugene Wigner</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Teller" target="_blank">Edward Teller</a> , was that <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Franklin_D._Roosevelt" target="_blank">President Franklin Delano Roosevelt</a> accelerated scientific research with a new committee on June 28, 1941 and approved the atomic program on October 9, 1941. The response to their letter came on October 19, 1941.<br />
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This timeline is interesting, taken in the context of the historical evolution, from World War I, in 1914-1918 to World War II and its aftermath in the nuclear arms race. The historical context included the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1918_flu_pandemic" target="_blank">1918 Flu Pandemic (Spanish Flu)</a>, aided by a World War I fought in the trenches, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression" target="_blank">Great Depression</a>, and the ever continuing battle between commercialization, globalization and nationalist interests. The development of nuclear weapons ratcheted up the stakes, due to the wider implications of their use and the attendant risks.<br />
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Nuclear risks include the potential manufacture, storage, transportation, testing and potential use of nuclear weapons in conflict (including WWII). These risks are in addition to risks arising from nuclear usages in other areas, such as power generation and medical usages. We have seen impacts from the Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima nuclear power plant incidents. I've discussed some of these issues in other blog articles, including: <a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1491610240501676289#editor/target=post;postID=3984838192584993888;onPublishedMenu=allposts;onClosedMenu=allposts;postNum=1;src=postname" target="_blank">Nuclear Balance of Risks</a>, <a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1491610240501676289#editor/target=post;postID=3272454974952304170;onPublishedMenu=allposts;onClosedMenu=allposts;postNum=6;src=postname" target="_blank">Chernobyl 25th Anniversary</a> and <a href="https://www.blogger.com/blogger.g?blogID=1491610240501676289#editor/target=post;postID=590030336536043613;onPublishedMenu=allposts;onClosedMenu=allposts;postNum=13;src=postname" target="_blank">Energy Choices and Risk</a>.<br />
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Development, testing and use of nuclear weapons has left a long lasting radiological footprint on the landscape in areas such as Hanford and the Pacific Northwest, the Trinity Site and White Sands and the Southwest, the Pacific Islands, including Japan during WWII, and downwind (and water) areas.<br />
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The above photograph is taken at Bosque Del Apache National Wildlife Refuge, near San Antonio, New Mexico in February, 2009, about 20 -30 miles from the Trinity Test Site, some 63-64 years after the test. Another image, taken at Valley of the <a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/gallery-image/New-Mexico/G0000_JhVANcWvJE/I0000alOS.GL3IhM/C0000jwB9Vt2bOGY" target="_blank">Fires State Park</a>, New Mexico, was taken near Carrizozo, New Mexico, one of the areas harder hit by the Trinity plume.<br />
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<br />Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1491610240501676289.post-91127679944293895372014-10-19T17:01:00.000-07:002014-11-29T22:42:58.353-08:00The Odd Couple: The Mitochondria and the Cell Nucleus<div style="text-align: center;">
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<b>Mitochondrion (Creative Image)</b></div>
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Mitochondria are key to understanding many life processes, in the body, in nature,<br />
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Years ago, the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eukaryote" target="_blank">Eukaryotic cell</a> developed as a symbiotic relationship between a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prokaryote" target="_blank">prokaryotic</a> cell and a <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Proteobacteria" target="_blank">proteobacteria</a>. The prokaryotic cell may have been an <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Archaea" target="_blank">archaea</a>. The proteobacteria was was incorporated into the cell as an endosymbiont. As gene transfer took place between <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mitochondrial_DNA" target="_blank">mitochondrial DNA</a> and the cell's<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_DNA" target="_blank"> nuclear DNA</a>, the extent of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) decreased and the nuclear DNA incorporated more of the functions performed previously by mitochondrial DNA. As this occured, the relationship changed from being symbiotic to the development of the mitochondrion as an <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Organelle" target="_blank">organelle</a> within the cell.<br />
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Much of the work developing the theory of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Symbiogenesis" target="_blank">symbiogenesis</a> was done by Lynn Margulis in a 1967 paper.. The theory behind symbiogenesis is a very important topic with wide ranging implications due to the complexities involved in the interoperablity of nuclear DNA and mitochondrial DNA. These issues are ongoing and represent a major challenge in understanding a wide range of scientific issues confronting our society today.<br />
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Mitochondria are present in most living cells that include DNA. Mitochondria are responsible for a large portion of the energy generated by the cell. Mitochondria are responsible for the generation of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adenosine_triphosphate" target="_blank">adenosine triphosphate (ATP)</a> from <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adenosine_diphosphate" target="_blank">adenosine diphosphate (ADP)</a> through aerobic processes using its electron transport chain (ETC). The energy generated as ATP is many times greater than the energy generated through <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glycolysis" target="_blank">anaerboic glycolysis</a>, which is an energy generation process that does not use oxygen.<br />
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The use by the cell of <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anaerobic_respiration" target="_blank">anaerobic</a> vs <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cellular_respiration#Aerobic_respiration" target="_blank">aerobic respiration</a> has significance in studying various physiological processes which occur throughout the body. These issues have implications in wide ranging areas from cancer to the relationship between sleep and wakefulness.<br />
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As energy is generated throughout the body, principles of conservation of energy must be satisfied. Whether energy is generated through aerobic respiration and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxidative_phosphorylation" target="_blank">Oxidative Phosphoylation (OXPHOS)</a> using the mitochondrial electron transport chain (ETC), energy generation requires inputs and outputs that must be balanced. This is a principle called "conservation of energy". OXPHOS generates <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adenosine_triphosphate" target="_blank">ATP</a>, the "energy equivalent of currency" in the body, energy in the form of heat, and outputs such as oxygen radicals (<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Reactive_oxygen_species" target="_blank">Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS)</a>) as a byproduct of the process.<br />
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<b>Oxygen Canisters</b></div>
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Oxygen reactive species such as superoxide (O-), hydrogen peroxide (H202) and the hydroxyl radical (OH-) can be generated depending upon a number of factors. This includes natural process in the body involving signaling and homeostasis and also exposure to a number of environmental factors which may increase their generation. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antioxidant" target="_blank">Antioxidants</a> may help the cell counter some of the impacts of reactive species. <br />
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Exposure to pollution, chemicals, toxins and radiation may increase oxygen reactive species exposure. Radiation exposure may include <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ionizing_radiation" target="_blank">ionizing radiation</a> or <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Non-ionizing_radiation" target="_blank">non-ionizing radiation</a> such as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmic_ray" target="_blank">cosmic rays </a> (e.g. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gamma_ray" target="_blank">gamma rays</a> ). <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geomagnetic_storm" target="_blank">Geomagnetic storms</a> and reduced <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_layer" target="_blank">ozone layer</a> protection at polar regions as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antarctica" target="_blank">Antarctica</a> and the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arctic" target="_blank">Arctic</a> may increase such exposure, with greater historical <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ozone_depletion" target="_blank">ozone depletion</a> over the Antarctic.<br />
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I photographed in Antarctica in <a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/gallery-image/Antarctica/G0000JR5XgPM7WAg/I0000D4jK3lHfNLM/C0000TuhTSJ1hF2Y" target="_blank">November/December 2004</a>, and in <a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/gallery-image/Antarctica/G0000JR5XgPM7WAg/I0000QMUBCrLbUlA/C0000TuhTSJ1hF2Y" target="_blank">October 2006</a> and photographed in the <a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/gallery-image/Arctic-Norway/G0000MD0bxf1vfgI/I00002ygF0Khwnxk" target="_blank">Arctic in July 2005</a>. The year 2006 saw the worst levels of <a href="http://marilyndunstan.photoshelter.com/gallery-image/Antarctica/G0000JR5XgPM7WAg/I0000Bxu2yw8eAP8/C0000TuhTSJ1hF2Y" target="_blank">depletion (2004 Image-Halley Bay Station, Antarctica)</a> in recorded history.<br />
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Cellular processes guide <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apoptosis" target="_blank">apoptosis</a>, or programmed cell death under a number of circumstances, generating an intrinsic pathway or extrinsic pathway for cell death. Reactive species play key roles in this process, as signaling mechanisms, and also in promoting cell death, as <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radical_(chemistry)" target="_blank">free radicals</a> generated by a variety of situations trigger apoptosis.<br />
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Mitochondria play a large role in enforcing 'group identity' in a cell. The mitochondria helps to sustain certain energy needs within the body and when certain system parameters (group identity system requirements) are not fulfilled, the process of apoptosis or programmed cell death is intended to kill off certain cells that do not meet those system parameters.<br />
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Mitochondria can be loosely or tightly coupled; this means that they can "leak" protons so that more heat is produced (uncoupled) relative to amount of ATP produced; there are certain <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uncoupling_protein" target="_blank">uncoupling proteins</a> that aid in this process, which decreases the generation of potentially damaging oxygen radicals. A highly coupled system will thus be more efficient in the generation of energy, less efficient in generating heat, and will generate more oxygen radicals, which can cause damage to the system. A more loosely coupled system will produce more heat, will generate less oxygen radicals, and will be less efficient in generating energy. A loosely coupled system will be more valuable in colder climates due to the greater heat protection. A tightly coupled one will result in more conditions, such as diabetes, which are impacted by the generation of oxygen reactive species.<br />
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The generation of reactive oxygen species is a significant issue in <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DNA_damage_(naturally_occurring)" target="_blank">DNA damage</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutation" target="_blank">mutations</a> involving <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mutagenesis" target="_blank">mutagenesis</a>. Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) are much less protected from the generation of reactive species than nuclear DNA. In the proverbial sense, they sit at the edge of the oxidative phosphorylation 'fiery furnace' and absorb more damage than nuclear DNA. Nuclear DNA has greater protection from reactive species, being protected by <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histone" target="_blank">histones</a> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Telomere" target="_blank">telomeres</a>.<br />
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Mitochondria can be damaged by reactive species, however, there is a certain amount of punishment that mitochondria can take before a process called<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heteroplasmy" target="_blank"> heteroplasmy</a> takes place. Heteroplasmy in the mitochondria is a process where, due to mutation, mitochondrial damage or other process, more than one mitochondrial genome can exist. This process may be associated with mitochondrial disease and be more extensive the greater the degree of heteroplasmy. However some individuals may live to long ages with some degree of heteroplasmy. <br />
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There is a basic problem with mitochondrial damage and mutation in so far as the mtDNA and the nuclear DNA interoperate in the OXPHOS process. This is because, as mentioned earlier in the article, some mitochondrial functions ages ago were shifted into the nuclear DNA through the process of gene transfer. <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cytochrome_c" target="_blank">Cytochrome C</a> belongs to the cytochrome c family of proteins and is an integral part of the ETC. Cytochrome C has a long history, which goes back to time periods when the Earth was subject to heavy amounts of radiation. <a href="http://ghr.nlm.nih.gov/condition/cytochrome-c-oxidase-deficiency" target="_blank">Illnesses associated with Cytochrome C</a> may involve both nuclear DNA and mitochondrial DNA. <br />
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Since Nuclear DNA has greater protection than mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) from the insult of reactive species, the degree of damage in each case will differ, or in the case of nuclear DNA, there may be minimal or no damage. This will lead to<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Interoperability" target="_blank"> interoperability</a> issues as mutations and damage occurs. Interoperability is the ability of systems to work together. As <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxidative_stress" target="_blank">oxidative stress</a> occurs at different rates and to different but inter-operating parts of the cell (mtDNA and nuclear DNA), illness and damage occurs, and potentially mutations. This occurs in systems requiring heavier use of energy, including muscles. Respiratory muscles bear the burden of oxidative stress, as these muscles are those subject to the greatest use during sleep. Sleep apnea may be associated with higher levels of exposure to oxidative stress.<br />
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As we are subject to greater and greater levels of substances that create oxygen reactive species, we can see that problems can add up. There are greater and greater chances of damage and mutations, the probability of heteroplasmy increases, the levels of heteroplasmy in the cell may come closer to the levels of heteroplasmy that may be tolerated in the cell without incurring mitochondrial disease.<br />
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We can see, therefore, that exposure to reactive species such as environmental toxins and radiation may provide for mutations in both nuclear and mitochondrial DNA, that these processes may occur at different rates, and that past a certain point, mitochondrial disorders may develop as the result of such exposure. At the same time, mutations that are beneficial may sometimes occur, and mutations and damage that are harmful may indeed result. The ability for mutations that are adaptive to occur may reflect the ability of the mitochondrial DNA and the nuclear DNA to inter-operate, which is statistically difficult, considering the conditions under which each of these processes work. <br />
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Thus any process which seeks to advance a species by introducing mutagenic factors via the use of the creation of oxygen radicals must take into consideration that mutations and damage may result in the process and that individuals may be harmed in such process. Due consideration must exist for who is subject to such exposure, and when the risk of subjecting certain individuals to such exposure constitutes a material risk that makes such experimentation untenable in a civilized society.<br />
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The risks of exposure to reactive species increases with the degree and length of the exposure, impacting the risk of early morbidity and mortality. Mutagenesis is more effective when it occurs in germ line cells which can pass mutations, either favorable, or unfavorable on to the next generation<br />
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Where such experiments are conducted, they must be conducted in an ethical fashion, they must be done with full informed consent of those involved, they must adhere to the law of civilized nations, and the ongoing experience of such studies must be monitored and measured so that those involved are not unduly harmed and the patient population put at excessive risk.<br />
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It must be made abundantly clear that if our society depends upon mutations to adapt the species to future environmental (or other) challenges, that those who have been subject to environmental (or other) assaults for such purpose be treated with due respect, that their contributions be valued, and their condition be measured, monitored and treated. It is clear that what these individuals are doing on a collective basis is aiding the future development of humanity. They are test subjects in a process that will benefit others, later.<br />
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What are our future ecological and planetary challenges and how can we adapt to them? How do these challenges impact our exposure to environment risks and how we deal with them? These are all important issues.<br />
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The mitochondria, as a vital cog in the production of energy has a very important part of the story that must be told as we seek to deal with the environment, climate change and other planetary challenges that we face.<br />
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<br />Marilyn Dunstanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17412894759112034658noreply@blogger.com0